Houston Astros vs Kansas City Royals Picks and Predictions September 1st 2024

At 2:10 PM ET, the Astros and Royals will square off in an AL matchup. This one is taking place at Minute Maid Park in Houston, and the Astros are favored on the money line at -163. The money line odds for a Royals win are sitting at +138, and the over/under line is at 9 runs.

Kansas City will be looking to snap a four-game losing streak, as they are 75-62 overall and in 2nd place in the AL Central. The Astros are 74-62 and are currently on a four-game winning streak, which has helped them take over 1st place in the AL West. Sunday’s starting pitching matchup features Alec Marsh for the Royals and Ronel Blanco for the Astros.

Kansas City is sending Alec Marsh to the mound today, and he comes in with a record of 7-7 and an ERA of 4.67. So far this season, he has made 20 starts and five of them have been quality starts. In his 20 starts, Marsh has pitched better on the road, coming in with a record of 3-4 and an ERA of 5.64. At home, his record is 4-3 with an ERA of 4.73. Looking back at his last outing, Marsh finished with a no-decision after giving up two earned runs in 4 2/3 innings of work. He has finished with a no-decision in each of his last three outings.

Heading into today’s game, the Royals are averaging 4.8 runs per game, which is 7th in the league. They have been even better at home, putting up 5.2 runs per contest. Overall, they are the 4th best hitting team in the league, with a combined batting average of .256. Kansas City has been tough to strike out this season, but they don’t draw many walks.

Salvador Perez and Bobby Witt Jr. have been two of the league’s top power hitters this season, with Perez’s 25 homers ranking 11th in the league, and Witt Jr.’s 29 homers putting him 7th in the MLB. Witt Jr. is also batting .341 for the season, while Perez comes in at .277. Over his last eight games, Witt Jr. has four homers and is batting .258, while Perez has two homers and is hitting .323.

Ronel Blanco gets the start for the Astros today and will be looking to build off his last outing, where he finished with a no-decision. Against the Phillies, Blanco went 5 2/3 innings, giving up two earned runs, and he issued two walks. Blanco has finished with a no-decision in each of his last three outings. Blanco has made 25 starts this season and has a record of 9-6 with a 3.14 ERA. Opposing batters are hitting .188 off Blanco this season. He has one complete game shutout and 12 quality starts this year.

Yordan Alvarez has been on a tear of late, going 9/19 in his last five games with three homers and four RBIs. Alvarez’s 28 homers this season is the best mark on the team and 8th in the MLB. Overall, he is batting .312 for the season. Catcher Yainer Diaz leads the Astros with 74 RBIs and is batting .298 for the season. Alex Bregman is 2nd on the team with 21 homers but is hitting just .260 for the year.

As a team, the Astros are 2nd in the league in batting average and are averaging 4.6 runs per game. They are also one of the best home run hitting teams in the league and have the 11th best slugging percentage in the league. Houston’s offense has been patient at the plate, as they are 4th in the league in fewest strikeouts, but they are just 24th in walks.

Astros Count on Dominant Pitching as They Eye Sweep of Royals

The Houston Astros have been riding the wave of stellar starting pitching throughout August, and they’re looking to keep that momentum going as they aim to sweep the Kansas City Royals in their four-game series on Sunday.

Astros’ Pitching Powerhouse

The Astros (74-62) are on a hot streak, winning four games in a row, thanks largely to the strength of their starting rotation. On Saturday, Yusei Kikuchi wrapped up an outstanding month for Houston’s starters, delivering seven impressive innings in a 5-2 win over the Royals (75-62). Kikuchi was nearly unhittable, striking out 12 and giving up just one run on five hits. This performance was a testament to Houston’s rotation, which finished August with a stellar 2.42 ERA.

Since Justin Verlander rejoined the rotation on August 21 after a 54-game absence due to injury, the Astros have been rolling with a six-man rotation. Although Verlander has had a rough start, with a 0-2 record and a 5.40 ERA in his two starts, the rest of the rotation has been lights out. Kikuchi and Framber Valdez both boast a 2.13 ERA since Verlander’s return, while young arms like Hunter Brown and rookie Spencer Arrighetti have been even more impressive, with ERAs of 0.71 and 0.00, respectively.

Blanco Takes the Hill for Houston

On Sunday, right-hander Ronel Blanco (9-6, 3.14 ERA) will get the start for the Astros. Blanco is looking to snap a winless streak, having gone 0-3 with a 4.69 ERA over his last eight starts. In his most recent outing, Blanco allowed two runs on seven hits over 5 2/3 innings in a no-decision against the Philadelphia Phillies on Monday. His last victory dates back to July 9 against the Miami Marlins, where he managed to pitch at least seven innings for the only time in his last 11 starts. Sunday will mark his first career appearance against the Royals.

Royals’ Offensive Struggles

The Royals are in a slump, losing four straight games, and they’ve found Houston’s pitching staff particularly tough to crack. Kansas City’s offense has managed just one earned run on seven hits while striking out 23 times over 20 2/3 innings against Astros starters Hunter Brown, Framber Valdez, and Yusei Kikuchi. As the Royals fight to avoid a sweep, they’ll need to find a way to spark their offense.

Marsh Gets the Nod for Kansas City

The Royals will counter with right-hander Alec Marsh (7-7, 4.67 ERA), hoping to salvage the final game of the series. Marsh allowed four runs (two earned) over 4 2/3 innings in his last start, a no-decision in a 9-4 win over the Cleveland Guardians on Monday. He’s struggled of late, going 0-1 with a 5.28 ERA over his last four outings. Marsh has been slightly better on the road, posting a 4.89 ERA in away games this season.

Marsh has faced the Astros once before, giving up four runs (three earned) on three hits over 5 1/3 innings in a 6-5 victory in Houston on September 24, 2023.

Game Outlook

As the Astros look to keep their pitching dominance alive and secure a series sweep, they’ll lean on Ronel Blanco to continue the trend. The Royals, on the other hand, will be desperate to find some offense and avoid a fifth straight loss as they send Alec Marsh to the mound. With both teams eager to close out the series on a high note, Sunday’s matchup is set to be a pivotal game as September kicks off.

For a money-line pick, we would be leaning toward the Royals to come out on top. And with the way we are leaning on the over/under line, we would be looking at the over. This game is projected to have the 5th most combined runs in today’s slate and the highest total hits projection. Astros starter Ronel Blanco has the 4th worst strikeout projection among today’s starters.