Houston Astros vs Detroit Tigers Picks and Predictions October 1st 2024

From Minute Maid Park in Houston, we have the Tigers and Astros facing off in an AL matchup. This one is getting started at 2:32 PM ET, and ABC is carrying it on TV.

The Astros are favored on the money line, as their odds are at -148 compared to the Tigers at +126. Tuesday’s pitching matchup is Tarik Skubal for the Tigers and Framber Valdez for the Astros. Houston comes in with a record of 88-73, while the Tigers are 86-76.Detroit vs. Houston Key Information

Tarik Skubal gets the start for the Tigers today as he faces the Astros on the road. He has made 31 starts this season and has a record of 18-4 with an ERA of 2.39. Skubal’s WHIP for the season is .92, and he has pitched well on the road, coming in with a record of 8-3 and an ERA of 3.09. In his last outing, Skubal went seven innings, picking up the win and not giving up a run. He has won each of his last two starts. Skubal has finished with a no-decision in two straight outings.

Heading into today’s game, the Tigers are averaging 4.2 runs per game, which is 19th in the MLB. However, their team batting average of .234 is 15th in the league. Detroit’s offense is led by Riley Greene and Kerry Carpenter, who are 1st and 2nd in RBIs and 1st and 2nd in home runs, respectively. Carpenter has gone just 3/16 in his last five games, but he did hit a home run during that stretch.

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Over his last six games, Parker Meadows is hitting .364 with four runs scored. Detroit is also hoping that Spencer Torkelson can start to heat up, as he has gone just 4/16 in his last six games. Torkelson did go deep once during that stretch.

Framber Valdez is coming off a strong outing vs. the Mariners, where he picked up the win. In that September 24th start, he went 5 2/3 innings, giving up three earned runs, and striking out eight. Looking back further, he has made 28 starts this season and has a record of 15-7. Valdez’s ERA for the season is 2.91, along with a WHIP of 1.11. This year, opponents are batting .218 vs. Valdez. He has one complete game and 17 quality starts this season. Per nine innings, Valdez is averaging 8.63 strikeouts and 2.81 walks.

Yordan Alvarez has been the Astros’ most dangerous hitter this season, as his 35 homers are the best mark on the team and 9th best in the league. He also leads the team with 86 RBIs. Alvarez’s 35 homers are the 2nd best mark in the league. Alex Bregman has also been swinging a hot bat of late, going 8/17 with two homers over his last five games.

For the season, the Astros are 10th in scoring at 4.6 runs per game. They have been a better offensive team at home this season, averaging 4.9 runs per game. Overall, they have the league’s 2nd best team batting average and are 8th in team slugging percentage.

Our lean for an over/under pick would be to take the under, as this is our 2nd lowest projected scoring game of the day. As for who is going to take this one straight up, we are leaning toward the Astros to pick up the win. Looking at the starters for this matchup, Framber Valdez has the 2nd best innings pitched projection on the slate, and Tarik Skubal is 2nd worst among today’s starters in terms of strikeouts.

Red-Hot but Inexperienced Tigers Prepare for Veteran Astros

HOUSTON — The Houston Astros rebounded from a rocky start to clinch their fourth consecutive American League West title, and now, they bring a wealth of postseason experience into their matchup against the Detroit Tigers in the American League wild-card series, which kicks off Tuesday.

Skubal and Valdez Set for Game 1 Showdown

The series opener will feature a duel of left-handed aces: Detroit’s Tarik Skubal (18-4, 2.39 ERA), who claimed the AL pitching triple crown, versus Houston’s Framber Valdez (15-7, 2.91 ERA).

For Skubal, this will be his first taste of postseason action, as he leads a Tigers organization making its first playoff appearance since 2014. In stark contrast, the Astros are seasoned postseason contenders, entering their ninth playoff campaign in 10 years, with two World Series titles, four AL pennants, and seven consecutive AL Championship Series appearances.

A.J. Hinch Leans on Playoff Experience

Tigers manager A.J. Hinch, who steered the Astros during the first half of their current run of success, will draw on his wealth of playoff experience as he guides a relatively inexperienced Tigers squad.

“It’s super important as a manager to have postseason experience, not as important for the players to have played in the postseason,” Hinch joked. “Obviously you cannot replace experience… Our guys got to play playoff baseball for the better part of two months just to be a part of the playoffs.”

While the Tigers may be light on playoff experience, Hinch hopes their strong finish to the regular season will provide the necessary momentum as they head into the series.

Tigers and Astros Follow Similar Paths to Postseason

Both the Tigers and Astros had to rally mid-season to secure their playoff spots. The Astros trailed the Seattle Mariners by 10 games in the AL West as of June 18, but they clawed their way back to win the division. Similarly, the Tigers capitalized on the Minnesota Twins’ late-season collapse, winning 18 of their final 26 games to secure a wild-card berth.

Astros manager Joe Espada acknowledged that the Tigers team entering the postseason is vastly different from the one Houston faced in June.

“If you really watch their games, they have matured a lot as a club,” Espada said. “They’re playing good baseball… I’m expecting a pretty good series and we’ll be ready for them.”

Framber Valdez Looks to Continue Second-Half Surge

The Astros will need the best version of Framber Valdez on Tuesday. Valdez has shown flashes of brilliance in the postseason, including during Houston’s 2022 championship run when he posted a 3-0 record with a 1.44 ERA. However, he struggled in 2023, finishing 0-3 with a 9.00 ERA, highlighted by a rough outing in Game 2 of the ALCS.

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Valdez has bounced back in the second half of this season, posting a 7-2 record with a 1.96 ERA across 12 starts. Manager Joe Espada expressed confidence that Valdez has moved past his earlier struggles and will rise to the occasion.

“He has left that in the past,” Espada said. “I expect Framber to go out there and perform the way Framber has performed this entire second half as one of the best pitchers in the league.”

Tigers Aim to Play Spoilers

Though the Astros enter the series with a clear experience advantage, the Tigers, led by Skubal, are determined to prove they belong on the postseason stage. With both teams on hot streaks heading into October, Game 1 promises to be a thrilling contest between one of baseball’s most seasoned franchises and one of its up-and-coming contenders.