Houston Astros vs Detroit Tigers Picks and Predictions October 2nd 2024

Yordan Alvarez, Astros attempt to even series vs. Tigers

From Minute Maid Park in Houston, we have the Tigers and Astros facing off in an AL matchup. This one is getting started at 2:32 PM ET, and ABC is carrying it on TV.

The Astros are favored on the money line, as their odds are at -148 compared to the Tigers at +126. Tuesday’s pitching matchup is Tarik Skubal for the Tigers and Framber Valdez for the Astros. Houston comes in with a record of 88-73, while the Tigers are 86-76.Detroit vs. Houston Key Information

• Teams: Tigers at Astros
• Where: Minute Maid Park Houston
• Date: Tuesday, October 1st
• Betting Odds HOU -148 | DET +126 O/U 6.5

The Tigers Can Win If…

Tarik Skubal gets the start for the Tigers today as he faces the Astros on the road. He has made 31 starts this season and has a record of 18-4 with an ERA of 2.39. Skubal’s WHIP for the season is .92, and he has pitched well on the road, coming in with a record of 8-3 and an ERA of 3.09. In his last outing, Skubal went seven innings, picking up the win and not giving up a run. He has won each of his last two starts. Skubal has finished with a no-decision in two straight outings.

Heading into today’s game, the Tigers are averaging 4.2 runs per game, which is 19th in the MLB. However, their team batting average of .234 is 15th in the league. Detroit’s offense is led by Riley Greene and Kerry Carpenter, who are 1st and 2nd in RBIs and 1st and 2nd in home runs, respectively. Carpenter has gone just 3/16 in his last five games, but he did hit a home run during that stretch.

Over his last six games, Parker Meadows is hitting .364 with four runs scored. Detroit is also hoping that Spencer Torkelson can start to heat up, as he has gone just 4/16 in his last six games. Torkelson did go deep once during that stretch.

• The Tigers are 7-3 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Tigers are 2-3 vs. the run line.
• Detroit has an over/under record of 3-6-1 in their last ten games.
• The Tigers have an average of 4.0 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Tigers are 8-2
• Looking back across the Tigers last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• Detroit has gone 2-1 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Tigers have averaged 4.6 runs per game on offense

The Astros Can Win If…

Framber Valdez is coming off a strong outing vs. the Mariners, where he picked up the win. In that September 24th start, he went 5 2/3 innings, giving up three earned runs, and striking out eight. Looking back further, he has made 28 starts this season and has a record of 15-7. Valdez’s ERA for the season is 2.91, along with a WHIP of 1.11. This year, opponents are batting .218 vs. Valdez. He has one complete game and 17 quality starts this season. Per nine innings, Valdez is averaging 8.63 strikeouts and 2.81 walks.

Yordan Alvarez has been the Astros’ most dangerous hitter this season, as his 35 homers are the best mark on the team and 9th best in the league. He also leads the team with 86 RBIs. Alvarez’s 35 homers are the 2nd best mark in the league. Alex Bregman has also been swinging a hot bat of late, going 8/17 with two homers over his last five games.

For the season, the Astros are 10th in scoring at 4.6 runs per game. They have been a better offensive team at home this season, averaging 4.9 runs per game. Overall, they have the league’s 2nd best team batting average and are 8th in team slugging percentage.

• The Astros are 6-4 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Astros are 2-3 vs. the run line.
• Houston has an over/under record of 4-5-1 in their last ten games.
• The Astros have an average of 3.0 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Astros are 6-4
• Looking back across the Astros last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• Houston has gone 2-1 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Astros have averaged 3.5 runs per game on offense

The Lean

Our lean for an over/under pick would be to take the under, as this is our 2nd lowest projected scoring game of the day. As for who is going to take this one straight up, we are leaning toward the Astros to pick up the win. Looking at the starters for this matchup, Framber Valdez has the 2nd best innings pitched projection on the slate, and Tarik Skubal is 2nd worst among today’s starters in terms of strikeouts.

After a tough 3-1 loss in Game 1 of the American League Wild Card series, the Houston Astros are determined to bounce back and even the series against the Detroit Tigers in Game 2. Central to Houston’s effort is the return of their power-hitting left fielder, Yordan Alvarez, and the pitching of emerging star Hunter Brown. Meanwhile, the Tigers are sticking to their successful bullpen strategy as they look to secure the series.

Yordan Alvarez’s Strong Return from Injury

Yordan Alvarez, playing for the first time since spraining his right knee on September 22, had an impressive return in Game 1, going 2-for-4 with a double and a single. Despite the Astros’ loss, manager Joe Espada was pleased with Alvarez’s performance, noting that he moved well and had power in his swings.

“He got two hits, a double and a single. Moving around pretty good,” said Espada. “The swings looked like he got force behind them. He was able to rotate and looked good getting out of the box. Got to second base there on the double, so that was really good to see.”

Alvarez’s health and offensive contributions are crucial for the Astros as they face elimination in the best-of-three series. His ability to produce at the plate gives Houston a significant advantage in their attempt to stay alive.

Hunter Brown: Astros’ Game 2 Starting Pitcher

The Astros have turned to right-hander Hunter Brown (11-9, 3.49 ERA) to start in the do-or-die Game 2. Espada’s decision to tap Brown was described as a “no-brainer,” given the pitcher’s mid-season turnaround and strong finish. After a shaky start to the year, Brown regained his form following a bullpen appearance against the Tigers in May, which sparked a remarkable run.

Brown’s success after that relief outing includes a 6-1 record and a 1.83 ERA over his next nine starts. He continued that momentum through the second half of the season, going 5-3 with a 2.32 ERA in his final 13 starts, including 79 strikeouts in 77 2/3 innings. His experience pitching in high-leverage situations, combined with his dominant late-season form, makes him a key player in Houston’s bid to extend their postseason.

Reflecting on his relief appearance against Detroit, Brown said: “That was probably a turning point for me at the time. I was kind of struggling, and it was something that Joe (Espada) and Josh (Miller) had talked to me about, coming out of the bullpen to maybe jump-start the season.”

Brown holds a 3-0 record with a 2.93 ERA in five career games against Detroit, making him a formidable opponent for the Tigers.

Tigers’ Pitching Strategy: Bullpen by Committee

In stark contrast to Houston’s reliance on a traditional starter, the Tigers are opting for a bullpen game, a strategy that has served them well in recent weeks. Detroit will start left-hander Tyler Holton (7-2, 2.19 ERA) as an opener. Holton had an outstanding September, posting a 1.06 ERA and showing his versatility as both a reliever and spot starter.

Tigers manager A.J. Hinch has embraced a “chaos” approach to pitching, using his bullpen to disrupt the rhythm of opposing hitters by frequently changing pitchers. Hinch’s strategy paid off in Game 1 when ace Tarik Skubal delivered six shutout innings before four relievers finished the job.

“I love it,” said Skubal of the Tigers’ bullpen approach. “Those guys have been doing it for the last month and a half. Just mixing and matching, coming in any situation, any scenario. Doesn’t matter. Straight from (Triple-A) Toledo right into leverage innings. They come in and take pitches, and I think it makes A.J.’s job fun when we have guys in the bullpen able to do that.”

This flexible, unpredictable bullpen strategy makes it difficult for opponents to establish any rhythm, which could give Detroit a significant advantage as they look to piece together nine innings in Game 2.

High Stakes for Houston

For the Astros, Game 2 is a must-win situation. Their combination of star power, like Yordan Alvarez, and emerging talent, like Hunter Brown, could be the keys to forcing a Game 3. The Astros’ ability to adjust to Detroit’s chaotic pitching approach will be critical, as the Tigers have proven they can mix and match their relievers effectively to stifle opposing offenses.

On the other hand, Detroit, riding high after their Game 1 win, will look to keep Houston off balance with their bullpen strategy. With momentum on their side, the Tigers have an opportunity to clinch the series and advance, relying on the depth of their pitching staff.

Conclusion

The Astros and Tigers are set for an intriguing Game 2 clash, with Houston fighting to stay alive and Detroit aiming to close out the series. Yordan Alvarez’s return and Hunter Brown’s breakout season will be crucial for the Astros, while the Tigers hope their bullpen chaos continues to confound Houston’s hitters. The winner of this matchup will take a significant step forward in the postseason, while the loser will face elimination.

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