Oakland Athletics vs Seattle Mariners Picks and Predictions September 4th 2024

A’s look to push sinking Mariners further out of playoff contention

At 9:40 PM ET, the Mariners and Athletics face off in an AL West matchup. This one is being played at Oakland Coliseum in Oakland, and the Mariners are favored on the money line (-142). The Athletics are the slight underdog at +120, and the over/under line is currently 7.5 runs.

JP Sears is starting for the Mariners, and he is facing off against George Kirby for the Athletics. Oakland comes into the game on a two-game winning streak, and they are 4th in the AL West, while the Mariners are 2nd with a record of 69-70.

Seattle vs. Oakland Key Information

• Teams: Mariners at Athletics
• Where: Oakland Coliseum Oakland
• Date: Wednesday, September 4th
• Betting Odds SEA -142 | OAK +120 O/U 7.5

The Mariners Can Win If…

Seattle is sending right-hander George Kirby to the mound today vs. the Athletics. He has made 28 starts this season and has a record of 10-10. Kirby’s ERA is 3.63, along with a WHIP of 1.11. In his 28 appearances, he has turned in 16 quality starts. Looking back at his most recent outing, Kirby picked up the win vs. the Angels. In that start, he went 5 2/3 innings, giving up five earned runs, and two homers. Before that outing, he had given up at least one homer in three straight starts. So far, he has allowed 20 homers this season.

Seattle’s offense has been one of the worst in the league this season, as they are averaging just 4 runs per game, which is 26th in the MLB. They are also near the bottom of the league in batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage. One thing they have done well is draw walks, as they are 4th in the league in that category.

Julio Rodríguez has been swinging a hot bat of late, going 9/33 in his last nine games with two homers and eight RBIs. He is also on a six-game hitting streak. Overall, he is batting .259 with 13 homers. Randy Arozarena and Cal Raleigh are the team’s top power threats, with Arozarena having 18 homers and Raleigh leading the team with 28 homers.

• The Mariners are 4-6 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Mariners are 1-4 vs. the run line.
• Seattle has an over/under record of 5-4-1 in their last ten games.
• The Mariners have an average of 4.2 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Mariners are 2-8
• Looking back across the Mariners last five games as the favorite, they are 1-4
• Seattle has gone 0-3 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Mariners have averaged 4.0 runs per game on offense

The Athletics Can Win If…

Oakland is sending JP Sears to the mound today vs. the Mariners, and he comes into the game with a record of 11-9 and an ERA of 4.21. Sears has made 27 starts this year and has pitched well at home, going 6-5 with an 8.14 ERA. In his last outing, Sears picked up the win, going seven innings and giving up just one earned run. Before that, he had given up at least three earned runs in three straight starts. Sears has a WHIP of 1.21 and is averaging 6.94 strikeouts per nine innings.

As a team, the Athletics are batting just .233 this season, which is 19th in the league. However, they have the 5th most home runs in the league and are averaging 4.1 runs per game. Oakland’s team on-base percentage of .304 is also just 17th in the MLB. Brent Rooker has been a bright spot for the Athletics, as he is batting .294 for the season with a team-high 33 home runs and 93 RBIs.

Over his last nine games, Lawrence Butler has been on fire, going 17/40 with seven homers and 11 RBIs. His 13-game hitting streak is the longest on the team. Miguel Andujar and Brent Rooker also have nice hitting streaks going, at five and seven games, respectively.

• The Athletics are 6-4 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Athletics are 4-1 vs. the run line.
• Oakland has an over/under record of 6-4 in their last ten games.
• The Athletics have an average of 4.6 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Athletics are 6-4
• Looking back across the Athletics last five games as the favorite, they are 4-1
• Oakland has gone 2-1 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Athletics have averaged 6.3 runs per game on offense

The Lean

Today’s matchup between the Mariners and Athletics has the 10th highest combined run projection and 3rd lowest hits projection. We are leaning towards the Athletics to come out on top, and we are also leaning towards taking the over. Looking at today’s starters, we have JP Sears as the 6th worst strikeout option compared to George Kirby (10th).

The Oakland Athletics have delivered back-to-back walk-off wins against the Seattle Mariners in the first two games of a crucial four-game series. These victories continue to highlight the Mariners’ recent struggles in close games, putting their playoff hopes on the brink. As the Athletics aim to deal another blow to Seattle’s postseason aspirations, the two teams meet again on Wednesday night.

Oakland’s Clutch Performances in the Series

Oakland’s ability to perform under pressure has been the story of the series. On Monday, catcher Shea Langeliers hit a game-winning home run to seal a 5-4 victory. On Tuesday, Seth Brown followed suit, delivering a game-winning RBI single in a 3-2 triumph. Brown’s performance, including a 3-for-4 outing with his 13th home run of the season, underscores the Athletics’ knack for late-game heroics.

Manager Mark Kotsay praised the team’s effort, saying, “To have another walk-off the way we did tonight was great. It’s always great to be on the winning side of it.” The Athletics are thriving in these tight contests, winning six of their last nine games and playing spoiler to a Mariners team desperate for wins.

Seattle Mariners’ Playoff Hopes Fading

For the Seattle Mariners, the recent stretch has been disastrous. They’ve now lost four straight games, with all six of their losses under interim manager Dan Wilson coming by just one run. Close games have become a recurring nightmare for Seattle, and these latest walk-offs are particularly painful.

“Two walk-offs in a row is tough,” Wilson said after Tuesday’s loss. “It was a hard-fought game, but it was tough to come up on the losing end of this one again.” Despite the effort, Seattle has struggled to close out games, and it’s costing them dearly in the standings.

The Mariners (69-70) have fallen 6 1/2 games behind the Houston Astros in the AL West, with just 23 games left in the regular season. In the crowded AL Wild Card race, they are 5 1/2 games behind the Kansas City Royals for the final playoff spot, trailing both the Detroit Tigers and Boston Red Sox by 4 1/2 games. Time is running out for Seattle, and their margin for error is razor-thin.

Luis Castillo: “It’s Never Too Late”

Despite the downward trend, Mariners’ pitcher Luis Castillo remains hopeful. After pitching seven strong innings in Tuesday’s loss, Castillo expressed optimism through an interpreter, saying, “It’s never too late. If we got a chance and the playoffs are in our cards, we’ll get there. The thing we can do is just come in here and keep putting in the work.”

Seattle has the talent, but they need to start winning these close games to keep their playoff dreams alive. Castillo’s resilience echoes the sentiment within the clubhouse, but the clock is ticking.

Key Player Contributions

Aside from Castillo’s efforts, catcher Cal Raleigh provided a bright spot for the Mariners, hitting a two-run double that raised his RBI total to 84, breaking the franchise single-season record for a catcher, previously held by Dan Wilson (83 in 1996). Raleigh’s personal milestone highlights his strong season, but the team around him needs to rally in these final weeks.

For Oakland, Seth Brown’s resurgence since returning to the majors in July has been critical. After a demotion earlier in the season, Brown has raised his batting average from .189 to .242. He has been a key contributor in Oakland’s recent success, both offensively and in clutch situations. “Just being on a baseball field in itself is special,” Brown said. “When you get to do it on this stage with these guys, it’s something to where you go to bed at night thinking about how lucky you are to do it.”

Wednesday’s Pivotal Pitching Matchup: Kirby vs. Sears

As the series continues on Wednesday, the Mariners will turn to George Kirby (10-10, 3.63 ERA) to stop the skid. Kirby has been strong in his career against the Athletics, posting a 4-0 record with a 4.12 ERA in seven career starts. He also secured a win against Oakland on June 4, allowing two runs over five innings. However, Kirby’s recent outing against the Los Angeles Angels on Friday was shaky, as he allowed five runs and three homers over 5 2/3 innings.

Oakland will counter with left-hander JP Sears (11-9, 4.21 ERA), who has been impressive of late, going 7-2 with a 3.06 ERA over his past 10 starts. Sears has allowed one run or fewer in six of those starts, making him a formidable challenge for Seattle. He last faced the Mariners on June 6, giving up two runs over six innings in a losing effort, but overall holds a 1.86 ERA in seven career starts against Seattle.

Seattle hitters have had mixed results against Sears, with Julio Rodriguez struggling at 3-for-16, while Mitch Haniger has homered off Sears but is only 1-for-6 overall.

Athletics Playing Spoiler

The Athletics may be out of playoff contention, but they are embracing the role of spoiler. Their recent success, especially in tight games, showcases a team playing with pride and focus. With six wins in their last nine games, Oakland is gaining momentum, even as the season winds down.

For Seattle, these losses are devastating. Every game is now a must-win as they try to stay within striking distance of the wild-card race. If the Mariners cannot bounce back in the remaining two games of this series, their playoff hopes may fade entirely.

Conclusion

The Mariners face a critical juncture in their season, and each loss pushes them closer to playoff elimination. Meanwhile, the Athletics are thriving in close games and could deal the knockout blow to Seattle’s postseason ambitions. Wednesday’s pitching matchup between George Kirby and JP Sears will be pivotal, as the Mariners try to reverse their fortunes before it’s too late.

With the series on the line, Seattle needs to find a way to win the remaining games, or they risk seeing their postseason chances slip away entirely.

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