Toronto Blue Jays vs Ny Mets Picks and Predictions September 11th 2024

Seeking to regain momentum, Mets aim to win series vs. Blue Jays

Wednesday’s interleague matchup between the Mets and Blue Jays is set to get started at 3:07 PM ET from the Rogers Centre in Toronto. The Mets are 79-66 this season, while the Blue Jays are 69-77. LHP Sean Manaea is starting for the Mets, while the Blue Jays are going with Bowden Francis.

New York is favored on the money line, and the odds have them at -124 compared to the Blue Jays at +105. The over/under line is currently at 8 runs, and the game can be seen on MLBN.

New York vs. Toronto Key Information

• Teams: Mets at Blue Jays
• Where: Rogers Centre Toronto
• Date: Wednesday, September 11th
• Betting Odds NYM -124 | TOR +105 O/U 8

The Mets Can Win If…

Left-hander Sean Manaea gets the start for the Mets today as he faces the Blue Jays on the road. He has made 28 starts this season and has a record of 11-5 with a 3.43 ERA. Manaea’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.10. In his last outing, he finished with a no-decision, giving up four earned runs in 6 2/3 innings of work. Before that, he had won two straight starts. Manaea has a solid 12 quality starts this season and is averaging 9.32 strikeouts per nine innings. For the year, he has allowed 18 homers and is averaging 3.2 walks per nine innings.

For the season, the Mets are averaging 4.7 runs per game, which is 9th in the league. They have been even better on the road, putting up 4.9 runs per contest. As a team, they are batting .247, which is 9th in the league, and are also near the top of the league in home runs. New York’s team on-base percentage is .319, and they have the 8th best slugging percentage in the MLB.

Francisco Lindor has been the Mets’ top run producer this season, with 84 RBIs, and he is also 2nd on the team with 30 home runs. Lindor is batting .269 for the season and has an on-base percentage of .339. Pete Alonso has also been a big power threat for the Mets, hitting a team-high 31 home runs, but he is batting just .239 for the season. Over his last seven games, Mark Vientos has three home runs, but he is batting just .231 over that stretch.

• The Mets are 8-2 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Mets are 2-3 vs. the run line.
• New York has an over/under record of 3-6-1 in their last ten games.
• The Mets have an average of 3.2 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Mets are 7-3
• Looking back across the Mets last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• New York has gone 3-0 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Mets have averaged 4.2 runs per game on offense

The Blue Jays Can Win If…

Bowden Francis will be looking to bounce back from a rough outing as he gets the start for the Blue Jays today. In his most recent outing, he took the loss and gave up three earned runs in six innings of work. Looking back further, he had picked up the win in three straight starts before that outing. Francis has made 10 starts this year and has a record of 8-4 with a 3.72 ERA. Opposing batters are hitting .206 off the right-hander this season. So far, he has turned in five quality starts and is averaging 8.61 strikeouts per nine innings.

For the season, the Blue Jays are averaging 4.2 runs per game, which is 20th in the league. They are also 20th in home runs. As a team, they are batting .242, which is 11th in the league. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been a big reason for their offensive success, as he is batting .321 with 28 homers and 94 RBIs, which is 10th in the league. He also comes into the game on a four-game hitting streak.

George Springer is 2nd on the team with 19 homers, but he is batting just .221 this season. However, he has also been swinging the bat well of late, going 9/15 over his last five games with three homers and six RBIs. As a team, the Blue Jays are 6th in the league in strikeouts, and they have been very good at avoiding strikeouts.

• The Blue Jays are 3-7 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Blue Jays are 4-1 vs. the run line.
• Toronto has an over/under record of 3-6-1 in their last ten games.
• The Blue Jays have an average of 4.2 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Blue Jays are 4-6
• Looking back across the Blue Jays last five games as the favorite, they are 5-0
• Toronto has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Blue Jays have averaged 4.3 runs per game on offense

The Lean

Our lean for an over/under pick in this Mets vs. Blue Jays matchup is to take the over. This is projected to be the 9th highest-scoring game of the day, and this one has our 7th highest home run projection. For a straight-up pick, we are leaning toward the Mets to come out on top. Bowden Francis has the 6th best strikeout projection among today’s starters, but we still like Sean Manaea’s chances to work deep into the game for the Mets.

The New York Mets are determined to regain momentum as they aim for a pivotal series win against the Toronto Blue Jays. With the three-game series tied at 1-1, the Mets are eyeing a victory in Wednesday’s rubber match, crucial for their National League wild-card race. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays, out of playoff contention, are playing for pride and individual performances.

John Gibbons’ Sentimental Return to Toronto

New York Mets bench coach John Gibbons made a nostalgic return to Toronto this week, where he spent 11 years managing the Blue Jays across two stints (2004-08, 2013-18). Gibbons, who still holds a special place in the hearts of Toronto fans, is excited to be back in a city filled with memories.

However, Gibbons is laser-focused on helping the Mets win the series. Despite being outplayed in Game 2, where the Blue Jays defeated the Mets 6-2, Gibbons remains confident in his team’s potential. “One through nine, this lineup is as good as any I’ve been around,” Gibbons said, reflecting on his current squad’s capabilities.

Mets Fight to Secure Wild-Card Spot

The loss on Tuesday dropped the Mets (79-66) into a tie with the Atlanta Braves for the National League’s third and final wild-card spot. After winning 10 of their last 12 games, the Mets are eager to bounce back from this setback and remain in the playoff hunt. With the Braves routing the Nationals 12-0 on the same night, every game counts as the Mets look to clinch their place in the postseason.

Similarities Between 2023 Mets and Gibbons’ 2015-16 Blue Jays

John Gibbons sees parallels between this year’s Mets and the Blue Jays teams he managed in 2015 and 2016, both of which reached the American League Championship Series. In particular, Gibbons draws a comparison between Mets shortstop Francisco Lindor and 2015 AL MVP Josh Donaldson, both key players in their respective teams’ playoff pushes.

“Lindor is unbelievable. He plays every day, every inning,” Gibbons said of the Mets’ star. “When I saw him in Cleveland, I knew he was good, but I didn’t think he was this great.” Lindor’s leadership and consistency, much like Donaldson’s, are central to the Mets’ playoff hopes.

Pitching Matchup: Manaea vs. Francis

Wednesday’s rubber match will feature a compelling pitching duel. The Mets will start left-hander Sean Manaea (11-5, 3.43 ERA), who has performed well against Toronto in the past. In six career games against the Blue Jays, Manaea is 2-0 with a 3.50 ERA. He is coming off a solid outing against the Cincinnati Reds, where he allowed four runs over 6 2/3 innings in a game the Mets ultimately won, 6-4.

On the mound for Toronto will be right-hander Bowden Francis (8-4, 3.72 ERA), making his first career start against the Mets. Francis has been in excellent form, going 5-2 with a 1.96 ERA over his past eight appearances. The Mets’ offense, which struggled in Game 2, will need to step up against a hot pitcher like Francis.

Blue Jays Snap Losing Streak with Game 2 Win

The Blue Jays (69-77) had been in a slump, losing six of their previous seven games, before bouncing back with a decisive win on Tuesday. Toronto’s victory was led by former Mets pitcher Chris Bassitt, who held his old team to just one run over six innings, striking out eight.

Despite his strong performance, Bassitt expressed goodwill toward the Mets. “As crazy as it is, I hope they make the playoffs,” Bassitt said. “I have a lot of friends there, a lot of people I respect, and I hope I get to watch them come playoff time.”

Spencer Horwitz Continues Hot Streak

Toronto’s Spencer Horwitz has been a bright spot in the Blue Jays’ lineup, delivering consistent performances at the plate. In Game 2, Horwitz went 2-for-3 with a walk and an RBI double. Over his past 10 games, Horwitz has been on fire, hitting .444 (16-for-36) with four home runs, four doubles, and nine RBIs. His contributions are critical as the Blue Jays look to end the season on a positive note despite being out of playoff contention.

Playoff Push for the Mets

For the Mets, the stakes couldn’t be higher. They are in a tight race for a wild-card spot, with every game counting toward their postseason future. The pressure is on for the Mets to find consistency at the plate, especially after being outhit 12-6 in Game 2. Securing a series win against the Blue Jays would provide a much-needed boost as they enter the final stretch of the season.

Despite the challenges, Gibbons is optimistic about his team’s chances, pointing to their resilience and depth. The comparison to his 2016 Blue Jays, who also clinched a wild-card spot late in the season, serves as a reminder that the Mets still have time to make a playoff run.

Conclusion: High Stakes for the Mets

Wednesday’s rubber match is not just another game—it’s a crucial opportunity for the Mets to regain momentum and solidify their playoff position. With strong pitching on both sides and key players like Lindor and Horwitz performing at their best, the game promises to be a thrilling contest.

For the Mets, a win could help them break away from the Braves in the wild-card standings, while the Blue Jays are playing to disrupt New York’s postseason hopes and salvage pride in a challenging season. Regardless of the outcome, both teams have compelling stories, making this a must-watch matchup.

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