Toronto Blue Jays vs Philadelphia Phillies Picks and Predictions September 4th 2024

Jays’ Bowden Francis tries to slow Kyle Schwarber, Phils

First pitch for Wednesday’s Phillies vs. Blue Jays interleague matchup is set for 3:07 PM ET from the Rogers Centre in Toronto. NBC10 will be televising the game, and the Phillies are the favorites on the money line (-130). The Blue Jays are +110 and will be looking to snap a two-game losing streak.

Philadelphia comes in with a record of 82-56 and they are 1st in the NL East, while the Blue Jays are 5th in the AL East with a record of 67-73. The over/under line is currently at 8 runs, and the Phillies will be starting Cristopher Sanchez. Bowden Francis will go for the Blue Jays.

Philadelphia vs. Toronto Key Information

• Teams: Phillies at Blue Jays
• Where: Rogers Centre Toronto
• Date: Wednesday, September 4th
• Betting Odds PHI -130 | TOR +110 O/U 8

The Phillies Can Win If…

Left-hander Cristopher Sánchez gets the start for the Phillies today as he faces the Blue Jays on the road. He has made 26 starts this season and has a record of 9-9 with a 3.49 ERA. Sánchez’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.28. In his 26 appearances, he has turned in 14 quality starts and is averaging 7.34 strikeouts per nine innings. Sánchez’s most recent outing came against the Braves, where he finished with a no-decision, giving up two earned runs in 5 2/3 innings of work. Before that, he had given up at least three earned runs in three straight starts.

As a team, the Phillies are averaging 4.8 runs per game, which is 6th in the league. They have been even better at home, averaging 5.1 runs per game. Overall, they are 4th in batting average and have the 4th best on-base percentage in the league. The Phillies also have the 5th best OPS in the league and are 7th in team walks.

Over his last seven games, Kyle Schwarber has three home runs and six RBIs, but he is hitting just .241 during that stretch. For the season, he is batting .245 with 31 homers. Bryce Harper has gone 10/27 in his last seven games and is 2nd on the team with 26 homers. Harper’s 76 RBIs are 4th on the team, and he is batting .282 for the season.

• The Phillies are 8-2 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Phillies are 1-4 vs. the run line.
• Philadelphia has an over/under record of 5-4-1 in their last ten games.
• The Phillies have an average of 4.6 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Phillies are 4-6
• Looking back across the Phillies last five games as the favorite, they are 4-1
• Philadelphia has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Phillies have averaged 5.0 runs per game on offense

The Blue Jays Can Win If…

Blue Jays starter Bowden Francis has been pitching well recently, as he has won his last four starts. Most recently, he faced the Red Sox and didn’t give up a run in seven innings of work. Looking back at his last four outings, he has only given up one earned run in each of those starts. Francis has made 23 appearances this year and has a record of 8-3 with a 3.66 ERA. Opponents are batting .201 off the right-hander this season. So far, he has made four quality starts, and his ERA at home is 5.47 compared to 3.91 on the road.

For the season, the Blue Jays are averaging 4.3 runs per game, which is 18th in the league. Toronto’s offense has been pretty consistent, as they are averaging 4.3 runs per game on the road and 4.2 runs per game at home. As a team, they are batting .242, which is 13th in the MLB.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been one of the league’s top hitters this season, batting .328 with a league-high 91 RBIs and 28 home runs. He has also been hot of late, going 10/21 in his last five games. George Springer comes into the game with 19 homers but is batting just .221 for the season. Justin Turner is currently on a four-game hitting streak.

• The Blue Jays are 5-5 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Blue Jays are 4-1 vs. the run line.
• Toronto has an over/under record of 4-6 in their last ten games.
• The Blue Jays have an average of 5.8 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Blue Jays are 4-6
• Looking back across the Blue Jays last five games as the favorite, they are 5-0
• Toronto has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Blue Jays have averaged 3.8 runs per game on offense

The Lean

For an over/under pick, our lean is on the over, as this is projected to be the 2nd lowest-scoring game of the day. As for who is going to take this one straight up, we have our lean on the Blue Jays to pick up the win. Toronto’s offense is our 5th highest-rated strikeout team in the league, and Bowden Francis is projected to have a good outing in terms of innings pitched. On the other side, Cristopher Sánchez is 11th in our projections in starting pitcher strikeouts.

Toronto Blue Jays’ right-hander Bowden Francis is set to take the mound in a crucial game against the Philadelphia Phillies, hoping to carry his remarkable August form into September. A win in Wednesday’s matchup is critical for the Blue Jays (67-73), who are trying to avoid a two-game sweep at home after Tuesday’s dramatic loss. The Phillies (82-56), fresh off an incredible comeback, will be aiming to extend their hot streak.

Bowden Francis’ Recent Dominance

Francis has emerged as a standout pitcher for the Blue Jays in recent weeks. In August, he posted a stunning 1.05 ERA over six appearances, with five starts, and earned American League Pitcher of the Month honors. His latest outing was a gem—he pitched seven innings of one-hit ball in a 2-0 victory over the Boston Red Sox.

Known for his ability to throw strikes and keep hitters off balance, Francis is a pitcher who prioritizes efficiency. In his win over Boston, he needed just 70 pitches to navigate seven innings, striking out five without walking a batter.

“I pride myself on throwing strikes,” Francis said after the win. “Getting ahead in the count early makes hitters anxious, and it allows me to go deeper into games.”

His ability to pitch deep into games without relying on high strikeout totals could be key in slowing down the Phillies, who have proven to be a relentless offense, particularly in clutch situations.

The Challenge of Facing Kyle Schwarber

The Blue Jays face a tough task containing Phillies slugger Kyle Schwarber, who has been on fire. In Tuesday’s game, Schwarber blasted three home runs, including a game-winning, three-run shot off Chad Green in the ninth inning to cap a remarkable 10-9 comeback. That performance gave Schwarber 31 home runs for the season and a career-best five-hit game.

Schwarber’s performance was nothing short of historic—he’s the first Phillies player to record five hits in a game since Matt Vierling did so in September 2022. His ability to hit for power, especially in crucial moments, has been instrumental for the Phillies all season.

In addition to his late-game heroics, Schwarber leads MLB with 12 leadoff home runs this season. His tendency to start games with an instant offensive spark makes him a constant threat for opposing pitchers.

Francis vs. the Phillies

While Francis has been dominant, he has little experience against the Phillies. His only prior outing against Philadelphia was a brief relief appearance last season, where he allowed a home run over one inning. Wednesday’s game will be his first career start against the Phillies, a team that has proven it can strike at any moment.

Francis will need to stay sharp against a lineup that also features the likes of Bryce Harper and Trea Turner, who are capable of making pitchers pay for even the slightest mistakes. Containing Schwarber, in particular, will be critical if the Blue Jays hope to avoid another late-inning collapse.

Philadelphia Phillies’ Cristopher Sanchez on the Mound

The Phillies will counter with left-hander Cristopher Sanchez, who brings a 9-9 record and a solid 3.49 ERA into Wednesday’s contest. Sanchez already has a win against the Blue Jays this season, a dominant 10-1 victory back in May where he allowed just one run over seven innings.

Sanchez has shown the ability to stifle Toronto’s lineup, but he’ll need to be careful with the Blue Jays’ power hitters like Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who had a four-hit game on Tuesday, including a two-run homer. Daulton Varsho, Addison Barger, and Leo Jimenez also contributed home runs in the previous game, so the Blue Jays have the firepower to keep the game close.

Blue Jays’ Offensive Concerns

Despite strong offensive performances from Guerrero Jr. and others, the Blue Jays have struggled to hold leads in recent games. Chad Green has allowed crucial late-game home runs in back-to-back outings, first giving up a three-run homer to Royce Lewis in a loss to the Minnesota Twins on Sunday, and then Schwarber’s game-winner on Tuesday.

If Toronto hopes to salvage this series, they’ll need to tighten up their bullpen, which has been vulnerable in high-leverage situations. Green’s struggles highlight a larger issue, as Toronto has consistently failed to close out games despite generating ample offensive support.

Alec Bohm Injury Update

The Phillies have been playing without third baseman Alec Bohm, who missed his fourth consecutive game due to a hand injury. While X-rays came back negative, Phillies manager Rob Thomson has been cautious, not wanting to rush Bohm back before he’s fully ready.

“It’s getting better, but slower than we expected,” Thomson said. “We don’t want to take any chances with a hand injury, which could affect his swing.”

Bohm could return in time for the Phillies’ next series against the Miami Marlins, but he will likely remain sidelined for Wednesday’s game.

Keys to the Game

For the Blue Jays, the key will be whether Bowden Francis can continue his efficient pitching and keep the Phillies’ power hitters, particularly Schwarber, under control. The Jays will also need better bullpen performances after two consecutive blown leads. Offensively, Guerrero Jr. and company will have to maintain their recent production while finding ways to solve Cristopher Sanchez, who has already dominated them once this season.

On the other hand, the Phillies will look to build off Tuesday’s momentum, with Schwarber leading the charge. If Sanchez can replicate his previous success against Toronto, the Phillies could complete the sweep and keep their strong September run going.

Conclusion

Wednesday’s game between the Blue Jays and Phillies is set to be a thrilling showdown between two teams with a lot to prove. Bowden Francis will look to continue his stellar season, but he faces a tough challenge in slowing down Kyle Schwarber and a Phillies team brimming with confidence. With both teams fighting for late-season success, the outcome of this game could have significant playoff implications.

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