Atlanta Braves vs Toronto Blue Jays Picks and Predictions September 7th 2024

Wednesday’s matchup between the Red Sox and Blue Jays is set for 7:07 PM ET from the Rogers Centre in Toronto, ON. The Red Sox have won four straight and are 39-35 overall, while the Blue Jays are 35-38 and have Kevin Gausman on the mound.

Brayan Bello is starting for the Red Sox, and he will be facing off against a Blue Jays team that has lost two in a row. On the money line, the Blue Jays are favored at -131, while the odds have Boston at +110. The over/under line is sitting at 8.5 runs.

Boston vs. Toronto Key Information

• Teams: Red Sox at Blue Jays
• Where: Rogers Centre Toronto
• Date: Wednesday, June 19th
• Betting Odds TOR -131 | BOS +110 O/U 8.5

The Red Sox Can Win If…

Right-hander Brayan Bello gets the start for the Red Sox today as he faces the Blue Jays on the road. Bello has made 12 starts this year and has a record of 6-4 with an ERA of 5.00. Looking back at his last outing, Bello took the loss, going 4 2/3 innings and giving up four earned runs on six hits. He has given up at least one homer in three straight starts. Bello’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.40. Opponents are batting .251 off Bello this season. Per nine innings, he is averaging 3.43 walks compared to 8 strikeouts.

Over his last six games, Ceddanne Rafaela has been on fire, going 14/23, including one home run and four RBIs. Tyler O’Neill has also been swinging the bat well, going 8/23 in his last five games, with four homers and seven RBIs. O’Neill comes into the game on a three-game hitting streak.

Currently, Rafaela is the Red Sox’s top hitter, with 41 RBIs, and his eight homers are 3rd on the team. Rafael Devers has been the team’s top power threat, with 14 homers (2nd on the team) and 38 RBIs (2nd on the team). Devers is also batting .284 for the season.

• The Red Sox are 7-3 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Red Sox are 3-2 vs. the run line.
• Boston has an over/under record of 6-4 in their last ten games.
• The Red Sox have an average of 5.8 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Red Sox are 6-4
• Looking back across the Red Sox last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• Boston has gone 3-0 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Red Sox have averaged 5.4 runs per game on offense

The Blue Jays Can Win If…

Kevin Gausman will be looking to bounce back from a rough outing vs. the Guardians, as he gave up three earned runs in 5 1/3 innings of work. In that outing, he gave up one homer. Before that, he had pitched well, coming off a complete-game shutout vs. the Athletics in which he didn’t allow an earned run. Gausman’s record for the season is 5-5, and his ERA is 4.08. Looking at his home/away splits, he is 4-2 with a 5.55 ERA on the road and 1-3 with a 7.7 ERA at home.

So far this season, the Blue Jays are averaging just 3.9 runs per game, which is the worst mark in the league. As a team, they are batting .233, which is 16th in the league, and are also near the bottom of the league in terms of home runs. However, they do have the 2nd fewest strikeouts in the league and are 6th in terms of drawing walks.

Over the past six games, Davis Schneider has gone 5/20 with two homers and three RBIs. For the season, he is batting just .226. Daulton Varsho is batting just .216, but his 11 homers are the best mark on the team and 12th in the league. Vladmir Guerrero Jr. is batting .280 and has gone deep seven times.

• The Blue Jays are 5-5 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Blue Jays are 2-3 vs. the run line.
• Toronto has an over/under record of 3-6-1 in their last ten games.
• The Blue Jays have an average of 3.8 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Blue Jays are 6-4
• Looking back across the Blue Jays last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• Toronto has gone 0-3 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Blue Jays have averaged 4.8 runs per game on offense

The Lean

For an over/under pick, our lean is on the over, as this is projected to be the 8th highest-scoring game of today’s league slate. As for who is going to take this one straight up, we have our lean on the Blue Jays to pick up the win. Kevin Gausman is our 6th ranked starter of the day in terms of picking up a win, and he has the 4th best odds to work deep into the game. On the other side, Brayan Bello is 13th in our projections in terms of strikeouts.

Braves Aim to Keep Winning as Blue Jays Struggle in Wild-Card Chase

The Atlanta Braves are on a roll after their 3-1 win over the Toronto Blue Jays, and with the race for the National League’s last wild-card spot heating up, every game is crucial. Both the Braves and the New York Mets are neck and neck with identical 77-64 records, making every win feel like it carries extra weight. But Braves manager Brian Snitker? He’s staying cool under pressure, sticking to the plan of taking things one game at a time.

The Wild-Card Battle Is On

After Friday’s win, the Braves temporarily nudged ahead of the Mets for the wild-card spot. But then, in classic baseball fashion, the Mets pulled off a dramatic two-run walk-off homer by Mark Vientos to beat the Cincinnati Reds 6-4, keeping both teams tied with just 21 games left in the season.

Sure, the standings are getting plenty of attention, but Snitker isn’t sweating it. “I’m not thinking about the standings,” he said. “I’m just focused on winning tomorrow. It’s there, but worrying about it doesn’t help.”

Schwellenbach vs. Berríos: A Key Pitching Duel

On Saturday, the Braves will hand the ball to rookie Spencer Schwellenbach (5-6, 3.69 ERA) for his first career start against the Blue Jays. Schwellenbach is part of a remarkable streak for Atlanta’s starters—they’ve allowed three runs or fewer in 25 consecutive games, the longest streak in MLB this season. That kind of consistency is what teams dream about as they head into the postseason.

Meanwhile, the Blue Jays are countering with veteran José Berríos (14-9, 3.59 ERA), who’s been a solid presence for Toronto. He’s tied for fourth in the majors in wins, but he’s had a rough time against Atlanta. In two starts, his ERA sits at a bloated 8.74, so the Jays will need him to step it up if they want to avoid dropping another game in this series.

Braves’ Pitching Continues to Dominate

Atlanta’s success this season can be largely credited to their lights-out pitching. In Friday’s opener, Max Fried was dealing. He went seven innings, giving up just five hits and one unearned run while striking out eight. Another day, another strong performance from the Braves’ rotation.

Closer Raisel Iglesias slammed the door shut in the ninth, striking out the side to secure his 31st save of the year and stretch his scoreless streak to an impressive 24 1/3 innings. Iglesias has been rock-solid in the bullpen, giving the Braves exactly what they need as they push for the playoffs.

Snitker couldn’t be happier with his pitchers. “They’ve been great,” he said. “The bullpen’s been really solid too. It’s always fun when you’re pitching well. That’s what this game is about—pitching and defense.”

Blue Jays’ Offensive Struggles Continue

On the flip side, the Toronto Blue Jays are in a bit of a rough spot. Their playoff hopes are fading as they’ve dropped seven of their last nine games, including Friday’s opener. Starter Kevin Gausman struggled in the second inning, giving up three runs on three hits and three walks in a 40-pitch nightmare. He eventually found his groove, but the damage was already done.

“I didn’t get knocked around, but that leadoff walk in the second inning really put me in a bind,” Gausman said after the game. And while he managed to settle down after that rocky inning, it was too little too late.

Toronto had chances, but like in so many recent games, they just couldn’t convert. The Jays went a dismal 1-for-11 with runners in scoring position and left the tying runs on base in the ninth inning. Joey Loperfido hit a two-out double, and Nathan Lukes followed with a single, giving Toronto a glimmer of hope. But Iglesias struck out George Springer to end the game, leaving the Jays frustrated once again.

Missed Chances Hurt the Blue Jays

Manager John Schneider didn’t hold back his disappointment with the team’s inability to come through in clutch moments. “When you get those opportunities, you’ve got to cash in,” he said. Toronto’s struggles with runners in scoring position have been a glaring issue, and unless they can turn that around, their playoff dreams are in serious jeopardy.

Braves’ Playoff Push: Focused and Ready

For Atlanta, every game matters in this wild-card race, and their recipe for success—great pitching, timely hitting, and strong defense—has been working. With 21 games left, their day-by-day mentality is helping them stay focused and avoid getting caught up in the standings drama.

The Braves’ offense is no slouch either. Led by stars like Matt Olson, Austin Riley, and Ronald Acuña Jr., they’ve got plenty of firepower. Olson came close to a grand slam in the opener, just missing it with a flyout to the warning track in the second inning. His bat, along with the rest of the lineup, is going to be key as the Braves look to keep their winning streak going.

Can the Blue Jays Turn It Around?

As for the Blue Jays, their 67-75 record puts them in a tough spot, but there’s still time to turn things around. José Berríos has the experience to give Toronto a fighting chance in Saturday’s game, but the offense will need to wake up if they hope to compete with Atlanta’s dominant pitching. Timely hitting is going to be essential for the Jays to stay in the hunt and salvage their playoff hopes.

Conclusion: Braves in Control, Blue Jays Struggling to Keep Up

As the wild-card race reaches its peak, the Braves have a clear edge with their stellar pitching and consistent offense. Their “one game at a time” approach has paid off, putting them in a strong position. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays’ recent struggles, especially with runners in scoring position, are making their postseason path a tough one.

With Spencer Schwellenbach looking to extend Atlanta’s impressive streak of quality starts and José Berríos aiming to help Toronto bounce back, Saturday’s game could be a pivotal one for both teams. The Braves are determined to keep their momentum going, while the Blue Jays need a complete team effort to stay in the race.