Atlanta Braves vs Milwaukee Brewers Picks and Predictions August 8th 2024

Thursday’s Braves vs. Brewers matchup features Charlie Morton for Atlanta and Frankie Montas for the Brewers. The game is set to start at 12:20 PM ET from Truist Park in Atlanta, and the forecast calls for broken clouds and temperatures in the upper 70s.

The Braves are the betting favorite, with money line odds of -144, while the Brewers are at +122 on the money line. The over/under line is currently 9.5 runs, and the Braves will be looking to end a four-game losing streak. Milwaukee is on a two-game winning streak and is first in the NL Central with a record of 64-49. The Braves are second in the NL East at 60-53.

Milwaukee vs. Atlanta Key Information

• Teams: Brewers at Braves
• Where: Truist Park Atlanta
• Date: Thursday, August 8th
• Betting Odds ATL -144 | MIL +122 O/U 9.5

Milwaukee is sending Frankie Montas to the mound today vs. the Braves, and he comes in with a record of 5-8 and an ERA of 5.03. Montas has made 20 starts this year and has a total of six quality starts. Per nine innings, he is averaging 7.6 strikeouts and 3.75 walks. Looking back at his last outing, Montas picked up the win vs. the Nationals, going five innings and giving up three earned runs. Before that, he had lost three straight starts. The right-hander has given up at least two homers in three of his past four outings.

With an average of 4.8 runs per game, the Brewers have the 9th highest-scoring offense in the league this season. They have been even better at home, averaging 4.9 runs per game. Overall, the Brewers are batting .257 as a team, which is the 4th best mark in the league. The Brewers also have a good team on-base percentage and have been one of the toughest lineups to strike out this season.

Willy Adames and Rhys Hoskins are tied for the team lead in home runs, with 19 apiece. Hoskins is also on a 12-game hitting streak and has gone 13/39 with three homers over his last 10 games. Jackson Chourio has also been hot of late, going 15/41 over his last nine games.

• The Brewers are 5-5 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Brewers are 3-2 vs. the run line.
• Milwaukee has an over/under record of 7-2-1 in their last ten games.
• The Brewers have an average of 6.6 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Brewers are 7-3
• Looking back across the Brewers last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• Milwaukee has gone 2-1 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Brewers have averaged 5.4 runs per game on offense

Charlie Morton will be looking to build off his last outing, where he gave up just one earned run in six innings of work. In that outing, he picked up the win. Looking at his overall numbers, Morton has made 20 starts and has a record of 6-6. His ERA for the season is 3.94, along with a WHIP of 1.25. Opposing batters are hitting .234 off Morton this season. The right-hander has made nine quality starts and is averaging 8.76 strikeouts per nine innings. For the year, Morton has allowed 14 home runs and is averaging 3.38 walks per nine innings.

Marcell Ozuna has been one of the best power hitters in the league this season, as his 32 home runs are 3rd in the MLB. He also comes into the game with a team-high 86 RBIs and is batting .297. Ozuna has been a consistent power threat for the Braves, as he has gone deep three times in his last nine games. Matt Olson is 2nd on the Braves in RBIs and has 18 homers this season, but he is batting just .229.

Atlanta’s offense is 7th in the league in home runs and is averaging 4.2 runs per game. However, they have been below average in terms of batting average, on-base percentage, and are one of the league’s worst teams in terms of strikeouts. As a team, they are batting .239.

• The Braves are 5-5 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Braves are 1-4 vs. the run line.
• Atlanta has an over/under record of 5-5 in their last ten games.
• The Braves have an average of 2.6 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Braves are 6-4
• Looking back across the Braves last five games as the favorite, they are 1-4
• Atlanta has gone 0-3 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Braves have averaged 4.5 runs per game on offense

Frankie Montas, Brewers Chase Sweep of Skidding Braves

The Milwaukee Brewers, comfortably leading the National League Central, are looking to complete a three-game sweep against the struggling Atlanta Braves. With right-hander Frankie Montas on the mound, the Brewers aim to extend their winning streak.

Brewers’ Recent Dominance

The Brewers have been on fire, securing back-to-back wins against the Braves with scores of 10-0 on Tuesday and 8-5 on Wednesday. These victories have given Milwaukee a 3-2 lead in the season series and solidified their six-game lead in the NL Central. Meanwhile, the Braves have hit a rough patch, losing four straight games and slipping to the third and final NL wild-card spot, just half a game ahead of the New York Mets.

Pitching Matchup: Montas vs. Morton

Frankie Montas (Brewers)

Frankie Montas (5-8, 5.03 ERA) will make his 21st start of the season and his second since joining the Brewers from the Reds at the trade deadline. In his debut for Milwaukee, Montas pitched over five innings, allowing three runs on nine hits with five strikeouts and no walks, securing a win against the Nationals.

“I’ve been in that spot so many times,” Montas said. “One of the things I told myself going out there was not trying to do too much. Just be you. Everybody knows who you are. Just go out there and have fun.”

Charlie Morton (Braves)

Facing Montas will be Atlanta’s Charlie Morton (6-6, 3.94 ERA), who is coming off a solid outing against the Marlins, where he pitched six innings, giving up an unearned run on five hits and two walks, with six strikeouts. Morton is looking to rebound from a challenging July, during which he allowed seven home runs over four starts.

“I felt good about my delivery,” Morton said. “I felt good about my four-seamer. It was getting good spin off the top. I can afford to give up hits if my four-seamer is working and my breaking ball is there.”

Key Player Performances

Milwaukee Brewers

• Rhys Hoskins: Continues to shine with a 12-game hitting streak, batting .326 with four home runs and nine RBIs during this period.
• Joey Ortiz and Jackson Chourio: Ortiz is 5-for-8 in the series, while Chourio is 5-for-11, both making significant contributions to the Brewers’ offense.
• Willy Adames: Despite a hitless game on Wednesday, Adames had a stellar performance in the series opener, going 4-for-5 with two home runs. He’s hitting .310 since July after a slow start to the season.

Atlanta Braves

• Austin Riley: Broke Atlanta’s 24-inning scoreless streak with a double, a home run, and three RBIs on Wednesday.
• Orlando Arcia: Extended his on-base streak to a career-best 19 games, providing consistent offensive support.

The Lean

For a money-line pick, our lean would be to take the Braves to come out on top at home. We also have this as the 2nd lowest-scoring game of the day and would be leaning towards the under. Charlie Morton is our 3rd ranked starting pitcher of the day in terms of strikeouts, and he has the 4th best home run prevention projections among today’s starters. On the other side, Frankie Montas has the 10th best strikeout projection among today’s starters.