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Both the Mets and Braves head into Monday’s matchup with an overall record of 88-72, and they are 2nd and 3rd in the NL East. This one is getting started at 1:10 PM ET, and it is being played at Truist Park in Atlanta. The forecast for the game is 67 degrees and clear skies.
SNY will be televising Monday’s Mets vs. Braves matchup, and the money line odds have the Braves as the favorites at -157. The Mets are +133 on the money line. Monday’s starting pitching matchup is Tylor Megill for the Mets and Spencer Schwellenbach for the Braves.
New York vs. Atlanta Key Information
- Teams: Mets at Braves
- Where: Truist Park Atlanta
- Date: Monday, September 30th
- Betting Odds ATL -157 | NYM +133 O/U 7.5
The Mets Can Win If…
New York is sending Tylor Megill to the mound today, and he comes in with a record of 4-5 and an ERA of 3.98. Megill has made 14 starts this year and has pitched well on the road, coming in with a record of 2-2 and an ERA of 6.1. In his last outing, Megill finished with a no-decision, giving up one earned run in four innings of work. Before that, he had gone 6 innings without giving up an earned run. Megill’s WHIP for the season is 1.27, and he is averaging 10.33 strikeouts per nine innings.
Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso, and Brandon Nimmo have all been driving in a lot of runs for the Mets this season, as all three are tied for the team lead with 88 RBIs. Lindor and Alonso are also 1st and 2nd on the team in home runs, respectively. Lindor comes into the game with a batting average of .272, while Alonso is batting just .240. Lindor has also been hot of late, going 12/28 in his last seven games.
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Overall, the Mets are 7th in the league in scoring at 4.8 runs per game. They have been even better at home, averaging 4.7 runs per contest. As a team, the Mets are batting .247, which is 8th in the MLB, and are also near the top of the league in terms of home runs and isolated power.
- The Mets are 6-4 in their last ten games.
- Over their last five games, the Mets are 2-3 vs. the run line.
- New York has an over/under record of 6-4 in their last ten games.
- The Mets have an average of 2.4 runs per game over their last five games.
- Across their last ten road games, the Mets are 4-6
- Looking back across the Mets last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
- New York has gone 2-1 in their last three games as the underdog
- In their ten most recent road games, the Mets have averaged 3.7 runs per game on offense
The Braves Can Win If…
Braves starter Spencer Schwellenbach has been pitching well recently, as he has picked up the win in each of his last three outings. Most recently, he faced the Mets on September 24th and got the win, going seven innings and giving up just one earned run. Looking at his overall numbers, Schwellenbach has made 20 starts, has a record of 8-7, and his ERA is 3.47. Opponents are batting .228 off the right-hander this season. Schwellenbach has turned in 11 quality starts and is averaging 9.41 strikeouts per nine innings.
For the season, the Braves are averaging 4.3 runs per game, which is 15th in the league. At home, they are averaging just 3.9 runs per game, but on the road, they are 8th in the league at 4.8 runs per contest. As a team, they are 4th in the league in home runs and have the 5th best isolated power mark in the league.
Marcell Ozuna and Matt Olson have been the Braves’ top power threats this season, with Ozuna leading the team with 39 homers and Olson at 29. Ozuna also has a team-high 102 RBIs, which is 10th in the league. Ozuna comes into the game with a batting average of .304, while Olson is batting .247. Both hitters have been swinging the bat well of late, with Gio Urshela and Michael Harris II each hitting over .330 in their last five games.
- The Braves are 7-3 in their last ten games.
- Over their last five games, the Braves are 2-3 vs. the run line.
- Atlanta has an over/under record of 2-7-1 in their last ten games.
- The Braves have an average of 3.4 runs per game over their last five games.
- Across their last ten home games, the Braves are 5-5
- Looking back across the Braves last five games as the favorite, they are 4-1
- Atlanta has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
- In their ten most recent road games, the Braves have averaged 5.6 runs per game on offense
The Lean
Today’s Mets and Braves matchup should feature plenty of offense, as this is our highest projected scoring game of the day. For an over/under pick, we would be leaning towards the over. As for who is going to take this one straight up, we have our lean on the Mets to win. New York has the higher projected team hits total, and Tylor Megill is our projected starter with more strikeouts than Spencer Schwellenbach for the Braves.
Mets, Braves Square Off in Make-Up Doubleheader as Both Vie for Playoffs
The Atlanta Braves and New York Mets are set for a high-stakes doubleheader on Monday in Atlanta, with both teams vying for a spot in the postseason. With identical 88-72 records, they are in a virtual tie with the Arizona Diamondbacks (89-73) for the National League’s final two wild-card spots.
Playoff Scenarios: What’s at Stake
Both Atlanta and New York need just one win from the doubleheader to qualify for the playoffs. If the two teams split the doubleheader, both will advance to the postseason, as they each hold tiebreakers over Arizona.
However, if either team sweeps the twin bill, the winning side will move on to the playoffs, while the loser will be eliminated, allowing the Diamondbacks to clinch a wild-card berth. Atlanta holds a narrow 6-5 lead in the season series against the Mets.
Mets’ Manager Mendoza: “Chance to Do Something Special”
Mets manager Carlos Mendoza reflected on the team’s journey, stating, “The way we started this year (twice 11 games under .500), nobody expected us to be in this position. And here we are with a chance to do something special. We’ll go back to Atlanta and get that last one and go from there.”
Meanwhile, Braves manager Brian Snitker is confident but cautious, noting, “The ball is in our court. If we can’t pull one of those off, then you know it’s just one of those things. We’ve done a good job coming out every day and trying to go 1-0.”
Braves’ Pitching Strategy: Schwellenbach and Sale to Start
Atlanta will start rookie Spencer Schwellenbach (8-7, 3.47 ERA) in the opener and ace Chris Sale (18-3, 2.38) in the second game. If the Braves win the first game, they plan to save Sale for the opening game of the wild-card series.
Schwellenbach has been solid against the Mets this season. The right-hander defeated New York last Tuesday, allowing just one run in seven innings. He has only allowed one run in 14 innings across two starts against the Mets this year.
Sale, already crowned the National League’s triple crown winner for pitchers, leads the league in wins, ERA, and strikeouts (225 in 177 2/3 innings). He’s been dominant in September, posting a 3-0 record with a 1.13 ERA. Sale’s last loss came on June 27, and in his most recent outing, he pitched five innings and allowed two runs to secure a win against the Reds on Sept. 19.
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Mets’ Pitching Plans: Severino to Start One Game
The Mets haven’t finalized their pitching rotation for the doubleheader, but veteran Luis Severino (11-7, 3.91 ERA) will take the mound for one of the games. Severino faced the Braves last Tuesday, allowing four runs over four innings in a loss. In his career, Severino is 1-2 with a 4.13 ERA in five starts against Atlanta.
“Everything is on the table,” Mendoza said about the Mets’ pitching plans. “We have a chance. We’re right there and we need one more, so we feel good.”
Playoff Implications
If the teams split the doubleheader, Atlanta will open the postseason against the San Diego Padres, while the Mets would head to Milwaukee. However, if either team sweeps the series, they would face the Padres, and the Diamondbacks would make the playoffs, traveling to Milwaukee for the wild-card round.
