Milwaukee Brewers vs Atlanta Braves Picks and Predictions July 30th 2024

Wednesday’s Braves vs. Brewers game features Chris Sale for Atlanta and Freddy Peralta for Milwaukee. The Braves are 57-49 and are 2nd in the NL East, while the Brewers are 61-46 and lead the NL Central.

Atlanta is currently favored on the money line, and the over/under line is at 7 runs. BSWI will be televising this game, and the first pitch from American Family Field in Milwaukee is set for 2:10 PM ET.

Atlanta vs. Milwaukee Key Information

• Teams: Braves at Brewers
• Where: American Family Field Milwaukee
• Date: Wednesday, July 31st
• Betting Odds ATL -130 | MIL +110 O/U 7

Chris Sale gets the start for the Braves today as he faces the Brewers on the road. He has made 19 starts this season and has a record of 13-3 with a 2.69 ERA. Sale most recently faced the Mets, where he finished with a no-decision, going 7 1/3 innings and giving up two earned runs. Before that outing, he had picked up the win in three straight starts. Sale’s ERA at home is 3.40, and he has been much better on the road, coming in with a 2.62 ERA and a record of 5-3.

Marcell Ozuna has been red hot at the plate for the Braves of late, going 6/22 in his last six games with three homers. He also has a five-game hitting streak coming into today’s game. For the season, Ozuna is batting .305, which is the best mark on the team, and his 31 homers are 3rd best in the league. Matt Olson is 2nd on the team with 15 homers but is batting just .223.

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Overall, the Braves are 8th in home runs and are averaging 4.2 runs per game. This is only 19th in the league, and they are also near the bottom of the league in strikeouts and walks. As a team, they are batting .240, which is 14th in the league.

• The Braves are 3-7 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Braves are 3-2 vs. the run line.
• Atlanta has an over/under record of 5-5 in their last ten games.
• The Braves have an average of 5.0 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Braves are 5-5
• Looking back across the Braves last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• Atlanta has gone 0-3 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Braves have averaged 3.9 runs per game on offense

Freddy Peralta will be looking to bounce back from a rough outing vs. the Marlins, as he gets the start for the Brewers today. In that July 26th start, he took the loss, going 5 1/3 innings and giving up five runs (three earned). Looking at his overall numbers, Peralta has made 21 starts and has a record of 6-6. His ERA for the season is 3.94, along with a WHIP of 1.21. Peralta’s batting average allowed is .213, and he has a total of eight quality starts this year. Per 9 innings, Peralta is averaging 11.18 strikeouts, and his total for the season is 142, which ranks eighth in the majors.

Heading into today’s game, the Brewers offense is averaging 4.7 runs per game, which is 9th in the league. They have been even better at home, averaging 5 runs per contest. As a team, they are batting .254, which is the 6th best mark in the league, and are 2nd in on-base percentage. Milwaukee’s offense is also one of the best in terms of avoiding strikeouts.

Willy Adames and Rhys Hoskins have been the Brewers’ top power threats this season, with Adames’ 17 homers leading the team and Hoskins right behind him at 18. However, Hoskins is batting just .220 this season. Hoskins does come into the game on a 6-game hitting streak, during which he has gone 8/27 with four homers.

• The Brewers are 6-4 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Brewers are 2-3 vs. the run line.
• Milwaukee has an over/under record of 5-4-1 in their last ten games.
• The Brewers have an average of 4.0 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Brewers are 6-4
• Looking back across the Brewers last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• Milwaukee has gone 2-1 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Brewers have averaged 4.4 runs per game on offense

Today’s Braves vs. Brewers matchup is projected to be a low-scoring game, but with the line sitting at 7 runs, we are still leaning towards taking the over. As for who is going to take this one straight up, we like the Brewers to come out on top. Atlanta starter Chris Sale has the highest strikeout projections in the league, but we are still leaning towards taking the Brewers to win this one.

Brewers Could Turn to Joe Ross to Start Versus Braves

Amidst a whirlwind of trades and transactions, the Milwaukee Brewers are supposed to activate right-hander Joe Ross from the harmed rundown to start Tuesday against the meeting Atlanta Braves.

Joe Ross’ Return and Injury History

Joe Ross (2-4, 4.50 ERA) has been sidelined since May 21 with a low back strain. Whenever activated, this will be Ross’ tenth start of the season. He didn’t contribute the majors in 2022 and 2023 following his second Tommy John medical procedure. Before Monday’s game, Ross was found in the Brewers’ clubhouse. Historically, Ross has battled against Atlanta, with a 1-5 record and a 6.53 ERA in nine career appearances (eight starts).

Ross as of late made a one-inning rehab stretch at Class-A Wisconsin and followed it with three starts at Triple-A Nashville, where he allowed 11 sudden spikes in demand for 16 hits in 12 innings, translating to a 8.25 ERA.

Brewers’ Bullpen Situation

The Brewers’ bullpen is also in flux. Trevor Megill, who has 20 saves in 22 chances, was placed on the injured list Monday with back discomfort. All-Star closer Devin Williams, who pitched Sunday for the first time this season after coming off the IL, will not be used in back-to-back games according to the Brewers’ announcement. Reliever Nick Mears, acquired from Colorado on Saturday, pitched a scoreless inning Monday in his Brewers debut.

Brewers’ Recent Performance

Willy Adames provided a go-ahead three-run homer to power the Brewers to an 8-3 comeback victory in the series opener Monday night. Rookie Jackson Chourio hit a two-run homer, and Rhys Hoskins added a solo shot. The Braves wasted a solid performance by rookie Grant Holmes, who allowed one run on three hits in five innings in his first career start after 10 relief appearances this season.

“We talk about how great the bullpen’s been, and they have been,” Braves manager Brian Snitker said. “There’s going to be games like that where it gets out of hand.”

Braves’ Starting Pitcher: Bryce Elder

Right-hander Bryce Senior (1-4, 6.35 ERA) is supposed to be recalled from Triple-A Gwinnett to start for the Braves. Senior, who was 12-4 with a 3.81 ERA in 31 starts last season with Atlanta, has been conflicting this year, oscillating between the Braves and Triple-A. In July, Senior made two starts for Atlanta, going 0-1 with a 8.10 ERA, allowing nine sudden spikes in demand for 12 hits in 10 innings. His last major league start on July 20 against St. Louis saw him surrender six runs in five innings, although he struck out nine.

Brewers’ New Acquisition: Frankie Montas

The Brewers also acquired right-hander Frankie Montas (4-8, 5.01 ERA) in a trade with Cincinnati on Monday night. Montas last started on Wednesday and did not figure into the decision in a 9-4 win over Atlanta. Montas could potentially join the rotation mix for Milwaukee.
Key Players and Performance Highlights

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The 20-year-old Jackson Chourio is hitting .324 with 10 doubles, seven homers, and 28 RBIs over his last 42 games. Rhys Hoskins, despite a .185 average in July, has seven homers among his 12 hits.

“If you get 12 hits a month, seven homers is good,” Brewers manager Pat Murphy said. “If there’s one homer in 12 hits, then that’s going to be a rough month. But he’s hit so many clutch homers.”

Braves’ New Battles

The Braves, who have lost seven of their last nine games, desire to make something happen with Senior on the hill. Marcell Ozuna, who hit his 31st homerun on Monday, remains a significant threat, ranking second in the National League behind Shohei Ohtani (32). Orlando Arcia, who also homered on Monday, is batting .333 over his last 14 games with three homers and seven RBIs.

Game Standpoint

With Joe Ross’ return and the Brewers’ new acquisitions, the team hopes to harden their rotation and warm up area amidst continuous challenges. The Braves, then again, will depend on Bryce Senior to find consistency and assist with halting their new slide. The result of this matchup will depend in the two teams’ ability to manage their pitching assets and capitalize on key hostile open doors.