Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals Picks and Predictions September 4th 2024

Brewers host Cardinals, continue push toward postseason

Wednesday’s matchup between the Cardinals and Brewers has a first pitch set for 7:40 PM ET from American Family Field in Milwaukee. The Brewers are 81-58 and are starting Colin Rea, while the Cardinals have Sonny Gray on the mound and are 70-69.

St. Louis is currently 3rd in the NL Central, while the Brewers are leading the division. On the money line, the Cardinals are the slight favorite, and the over/under line is at 8 runs. BSMW is carrying this game on TV.

St. Louis vs. Milwaukee Key Information

• Teams: Cardinals at Brewers
• Where: American Family Field Milwaukee
• Date: Wednesday, September 4th
• Betting Odds STL -122 | MIL +103 O/U 8

The Cardinals Can Win If…

Sonny Gray will be looking to build off his last outing, where he gave up just one earned run in six innings of work. In that outing vs. the Padres, he only gave up three hits and issued three walks. Gray finished with four strikeouts in that outing. Looking back over his last four starts, Gray has allowed at least two homers in three of them. His record for the season is 12-9, and his ERA is 3.96. Opposing batters have hit .219 off Gray this season. Out of his 25 starts, Gray has 11 quality starts and is averaging 10.91 strikeouts per nine innings.

Paul Goldschmidt has been on fire for the Cardinals of late, going 19/36 in his last nine games with two homers and nine RBIs. Overall, he is batting .247 with a team-high 21 homers. Alec Burleson also has 21 homers for the Cardinals, and he has driven in 73 runs, which is the best mark on the team. Masyn Winn is batting .279 with 12 homers.

As a team, the Cardinals are averaging 4.2 runs per game and are batting a collective .249. They are 10th in on-base percentage and have the 17th best slugging percentage in the league. St. Louis has three players with at least 50 RBIs, including Burleson, Goldschmidt, and Nolan Gorman.

• The Cardinals are 6-4 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Cardinals are 3-2 vs. the run line.
• St. Louis has an over/under record of 7-3 in their last ten games.
• The Cardinals have an average of 6.6 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Cardinals are 5-5
• Looking back across the Cardinals last five games as the favorite, they are 1-4
• St. Louis has gone 2-1 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Cardinals have averaged 4.5 runs per game on offense

The Brewers Can Win If…

Milwaukee is sending right-hander Colin Rea to the mound today vs. the Cardinals. He has made 23 starts this year and has a record of 12-4 with a 3.70 ERA. Rea’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.16. In his last outing, Rea finished with a no-decision, giving up three earned runs in four innings of work. Before that, he had won two straight starts. Rea’s ERA at home is 4.04 compared to 3.73 on the road. Opponents are batting .232 off Rea this season.

As a team, the Brewers are averaging 4.9 runs per game, which is 5th in the league. They have been even better on the road this season, averaging 5 runs per contest. Milwaukee has been one of the league’s best teams at avoiding strikeouts this season and are 2nd in the league in walks. The Brewers are also among the league leaders in OBP and have a collective batting average of .252.

Willy Adames has been on a tear of late, going 8/27 with five homers and 12 RBIs over his last six games. Adames is also on a 12-game hitting streak. For the season, he is batting .255 with a team-high 29 home runs and 100 RBIs. William Contreras is batting .278 and is 2nd on the team with 80 RBIs.

• The Brewers are 6-4 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Brewers are 2-3 vs. the run line.
• Milwaukee has an over/under record of 5-3-2 in their last ten games.
• The Brewers have an average of 7.0 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Brewers are 6-4
• Looking back across the Brewers last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• Milwaukee has gone 2-1 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Brewers have averaged 5.9 runs per game on offense

The Lean

Our lean for a money-line pick in this Cardinals vs. Brewers matchup is to take the Brewers to come out on top. We also have this as a low-scoring game, as this is our 3rd lowest projected scoring game of the day. However, with the line sitting at 8 runs, we are leaning towards taking the over. Looking at today’s starters, we have Colin Rea as our 15th best strikeout pitcher compared to Sonny Gray, who is 12th.

The Milwaukee Brewers are set to host the St. Louis Cardinals on Wednesday night for the final game of a three-game series, with both teams vying for critical victories as the postseason approaches. With the Brewers looking to strengthen their NL Central lead and the Cardinals fighting to stay in the playoff race, the series decider promises to be a crucial matchup.

Pitching Matchup: Colin Rea vs. Sonny Gray

The Brewers will rely on Colin Rea (12-4, 3.70 ERA), one of their most dependable pitchers in a rotation that has been plagued by injuries all season. Rea has performed admirably in recent weeks, posting a 3-1 record with a 3.51 ERA over his last seven starts. His consistent outings have been vital for Milwaukee’s playoff push.

In his most recent start, Rea allowed four runs in four innings but did not factor into the decision during a 5-4, 10-inning win against Cincinnati. While his career record against St. Louis stands at 1-3 with a 4.35 ERA, Rea managed five scoreless innings against the Cardinals earlier this season in a 2-0 Brewers win.

On the mound for St. Louis, Sonny Gray (12-9, 3.96 ERA) will try to build on his latest strong performance. After breaking a season-high three-game losing streak, Gray allowed just one run in six innings during a 4-1 victory over San Diego. His resilience and preparation have been lauded by Cardinals manager Oliver Marmol, who expressed full confidence in Gray to continue delivering.

Gray has struggled against Milwaukee this season, losing both of his previous starts, but holds a solid 3.31 ERA in 15 career starts against the Brewers. His ability to bounce back from recent setbacks will be critical for St. Louis, as they need every win in their pursuit of a postseason berth.

Cardinals Even the Series in 12-Inning Thriller

The Cardinals tied the series 1-1 on Tuesday with a dramatic 7-4 win in 12 innings, thanks to a clutch two-run single from Michael Siani in the 12th inning. Paul Goldschmidt led the Cardinals’ offense with a stellar performance, going 3-for-6 with a home run, double, and three RBIs. Goldschmidt’s contribution extended his hitting streak to a season-high 10 games, where he’s batting an astounding .513 with 2 home runs, 8 doubles, and 9 RBIs over that span.

Despite the loss, the Brewers saw some positive performances, with rookie Jackson Chourio hitting a home run and double. Willy Adames also extended his hitting streak to a career-high 12 games with an RBI double in the 11th inning, pushing his season total to an NL-leading 100 RBIs. Adames is batting .320 during his streak with 7 home runs and 15 RBIs, making him a key offensive weapon for Milwaukee.

Playoff Implications: Brewers and Cardinals in a Tight Race

The Milwaukee Brewers (81-58) still hold a comfortable 10-game lead over the second-place Chicago Cubs in the NL Central, but they are just 1.5 games behind the Philadelphia Phillies for the second-best record in the National League. Securing the second-best record could grant them a bye in the first round of the playoffs, making this game especially important for postseason positioning.

Meanwhile, the St. Louis Cardinals (70-69) are desperately chasing a Wild Card spot, currently sitting 5.5 games out of the final position in the National League playoff race. St. Louis is also one game behind the Cubs in the NL Central standings, which means every victory from here on out is critical if they hope to extend their season.

Key Players to Watch

1. Paul Goldschmidt (Cardinals): Goldschmidt’s blistering hitting streak continues to be a major storyline. His performance over the past 10 games has been outstanding, with 20 hits in his last 39 at-bats, including 2 home runs and 8 doubles. Goldschmidt’s ability to provide consistent offense could be a decisive factor for the Cardinals.
2. Willy Adames (Brewers): Adames is on a 12-game hitting streak, and his hot bat has been a driving force behind Milwaukee’s recent success. His ability to come through in key moments, as seen in his 11th-inning RBI double on Tuesday, has solidified his role as one of the team’s top contributors.
3. Jackson Chourio (Brewers): The 20-year-old rookie has been impressive, batting .322 over his last 74 games with 14 home runs and 53 RBIs. Chourio’s potential impact in the series finale could give the Brewers an edge as they aim to secure their division title.
4. Lars Nootbaar (Cardinals): Nootbaar’s current eight-game hitting streak has flown under the radar, but he’s hitting .355 during that span, providing critical offense for St. Louis as they look to make a playoff push.

Strategic Matchup: Brewers Offense vs. Gray’s Command

Milwaukee’s lineup will face a tough test against Sonny Gray, despite his earlier losses to the Brewers this season. The Brewers have shown they can make key adjustments, as seen in previous games, but Gray’s preparation and recent form indicate that he won’t go down easily. The Brewers’ ability to maintain their offensive consistency, led by Adames and Chourio, will be essential to overcoming Gray’s command and keeping St. Louis at bay.

On the flip side, Colin Rea needs to contain a Cardinals lineup that has found its rhythm, especially with Goldschmidt and Nootbaar hitting at a high level. Rea’s strong track record in recent starts suggests he’s up to the challenge, but he’ll need to be sharp to keep Milwaukee’s lead in the game.

Conclusion

As the Milwaukee Brewers continue their march toward the postseason, Wednesday’s game against the Cardinals carries significant implications. With the Brewers seeking to bolster their position for a potential playoff bye and the Cardinals fighting to stay in the Wild Card race, this series finale promises high stakes and plenty of drama.

The Brewers will lean on Colin Rea’s consistency to tame a surging St. Louis offense, while the Cardinals hope Sonny Gray can deliver another strong outing to keep their postseason hopes alive. The outcome could have far-reaching effects for both teams as they navigate the final stretch of the season.

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