Milwaukee Brewers vs Arizona Diamondbacks Picks and Predictions September 20th 2024

At 8:10 PM ET, the Diamondbacks and Brewers square off in an NL matchup. This one is taking place at American Family Field in Milwaukee, and the Brewers are the favorites on the money line (+107). The money line odds have the Diamondbacks at -126.

Friday’s matchup features Zac Gallen for the Diamondbacks and Colin Rea for the Brewers. Arizona is 85-68, and the Brewers are 88-65, putting them first in the NL Central. The Diamondbacks are 3rd in the NL West. MLBN will be televising Friday’s game.

Arizona vs. Milwaukee Key Information

• Teams: Diamondbacks at Brewers
• Where: American Family Field Milwaukee
• Date: Friday, September 20th
• Betting Odds ARI -126 | MIL +107 O/U 8

The Diamondbacks Can Win If…

Right-hander Zac Gallen gets the start for the Diamondbacks today as he faces the Brewers on the road. He has made 26 starts this year and has a record of 12-6 with an ERA of 3.61. Gallen’s WHIP for the season is 1.28. In his last outing, he finished with a no-decision, giving up three earned runs in five innings of work. Before that, he had picked up the win in two straight outings. Gallen has been solid on the road, coming in with a record of 5-3 and an ERA of 3.6. At home, his ERA is 3.83.

Arizona comes into the game as the league’s top-scoring offense, averaging 5.5 runs per game. They have been even better at home, putting up 5.8 runs per contest. The Diamondbacks have been an elite offensive team this season, as they have the league’s top on-base percentage, and are also near the top of the league in slugging and OPS. As a team, they are batting .264, which is the 2nd best mark in the MLB.

Eugenio Suarez has been on fire for the Diamondbacks, going 15/39 in his last 10 games with three homers and nine RBIs. For the season, he is batting .254 with 28 home runs. Suarez’s 97 RBIs are the best mark in the MLB. Pavin Smith has also been swinging a hot bat of late, going 13/30 in his last 10 games with four homers.

• The Diamondbacks are 6-4 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Diamondbacks are 2-3 vs. the run line.
• Arizona has an over/under record of 5-5 in their last ten games.
• The Diamondbacks have an average of 5.8 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Diamondbacks are 5-5
• Looking back across the Diamondbacks last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• Arizona has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Diamondbacks have averaged 5.1 runs per game on offense

The Brewers Can Win If…

Right-hander Colin Rea gets the start for the Brewers today as he faces the Diamondbacks at home. Rea has made 25 starts this season and has a record of 12-5 with an ERA of 4.14. This year, he has turned in eight quality starts and is coming off an outing in which he didn’t allow a run. In that appearance, he went 2 2/3 innings out of the bullpen. Rea’s ERA at home is 3.8 compared to 5.07 on the road. Looking back at his last three starts, he has finished with a no-decision in two of them.

William Contreras has been a big part of the Brewers’ offense this season, as he is batting .280 with 22 homers and 90 RBIs. Willy Adames has also been a key run producer, as his 109 RBIs are 4th in the league, and he is also 9th in the league with 32 homers. However, Adames has struggled of late, going just 4/19 in his last five games.

Over his last six games, Brice Turang is hitting .348, and Garrett Mitchell has two homers in his last five games while hitting .312. The Brewers come into the game as the 6th highest-scoring team in the league, averaging 4.8 runs per game.

• The Brewers are 6-4 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Brewers are 3-2 vs. the run line.
• Milwaukee has an over/under record of 3-6-1 in their last ten games.
• The Brewers have an average of 4.0 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Brewers are 7-3
• Looking back across the Brewers last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• Milwaukee has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Brewers have averaged 6.2 runs per game on offense

Diamondbacks Turn to Zac Gallen in Pivotal Matchup Against Brewers

The Arizona Diamondbacks will rely on right-hander Zac Gallen on Friday as they continue their push for a National League wild-card spot in the second game of their series against the Milwaukee Brewers. After a dominant 5-1 win in the series opener, Arizona (85-68) is looking to build momentum with the postseason in sight.

Arizona’s Brandon Pfaadt was brilliant in Thursday’s opener, allowing just one hit before a seventh-inning homer broke his shutout. Pfaadt struck out a career-high 12 batters and tied a franchise record with seven consecutive strikeouts, helping the Diamondbacks secure a crucial victory. Pavin Smith added a two-run homer in the eighth, marking his fifth home run in the last 13 games as he continues to lead Arizona’s offense.

Currently tied with the New York Mets in the wild-card race, Arizona sits just two games behind the San Diego Padres for the top spot and two games ahead of the Atlanta Braves. Manager Torey Lovullo expressed optimism after Thursday’s win: “We’re in a good spot. The team’s really starting to play together,” Lovullo said. “We’ve just got to keep pounding away at it, keep pounding the rock.”

Zac Gallen on the Mound

Zac Gallen (12-6, 3.61 ERA), one of Arizona’s most dependable arms, will take the mound Friday, aiming to keep the Diamondbacks in playoff contention. Gallen has been excellent this September, going 2-0 with a 1.69 ERA in three starts. His last outing was also against Milwaukee, where he allowed three runs over five innings in an 11-10 Arizona win.

In his career, Gallen holds a 3-3 record with a 2.20 ERA in seven starts against the Brewers. With Arizona’s postseason hopes in the balance, Gallen’s performance could be key to another crucial victory.

Milwaukee Counters with Colin Rea

The Brewers (88-65), fresh off clinching the NL Central title, will counter with right-hander Colin Rea (12-5, 4.14 ERA). Rea is coming off a scoreless 2 2/3-inning relief appearance earlier this week, which earned him his first career save. However, Rea struggled in his most recent start, giving up 10 runs on 11 hits over four innings against the San Francisco Giants.

With the division secured, Milwaukee’s focus remains on seeding, as they are three games behind the Philadelphia Phillies and Los Angeles Dodgers for a first-round bye in the playoffs.

Key Players to Watch

• Zac Gallen: Arizona’s ace is crucial to their wild-card hopes. Can Gallen continue his stellar September run?
• Colin Rea: After a rough start against San Francisco, Rea will look to bounce back and quiet the Diamondbacks’ bats.
• Pavin Smith: With five home runs in his last 13 games, Smith has been a clutch performer in Arizona’s lineup.
• Garrett Mitchell: Milwaukee’s outfielder homered on Thursday and could provide the spark the Brewers need to rebound.

What’s at Stake?

For Arizona, the stakes are high as they battle for a wild-card spot in a tight race with the Mets and Braves. Meanwhile, Milwaukee, despite already securing their division, is looking to fine-tune their play and improve their seeding for the postseason. Friday’s game will be pivotal for the Diamondbacks as they continue to fight for a playoff berth, while the Brewers seek to maintain momentum heading into October.

The Lean

Today’s Diamondbacks and Brewers matchup should feature plenty of offense, as this is projected to be the 4th highest-scoring game of the day. Our lean would be towards taking the over. For a straight-up pick, we are leaning towards the Diamondbacks to come out on top. Between the two starters, we have Zac Gallen as the better strikeout option than Colin Rea for the Brewers.