Milwaukee Brewers vs Arizona Diamondbacks Picks and Predictions September 22nd 2024

At 2:10 PM ET, the Diamondbacks and Brewers face off in an NL matchup. This one is being played at American Family Field in Milwaukee, and the Brewers are the slight money line favorite (-122). The Diamondbacks are +103 on the money line, and they will look to extend their four-game winning streak with a win.

Arizona will start Jordan Montgomery, while the Brewers are sending Frankie Montas to the mound. The over/under line is currently 8.5 runs, and the game will be televised on BSWI.

Arizona vs. Milwaukee Key Information

• Teams: Diamondbacks at Brewers
• Where: American Family Field Milwaukee
• Date: Sunday, September 22nd
• Betting Odds MIL -122 | ARI +103 O/U 8.5

The Diamondbacks Can Win If…

Jordan Montgomery gets the start for the Diamondbacks today as he faces the Brewers on the road. He has made 20 starts this season and has a record of 8-7 with a 6.23 ERA. Montgomery’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.64. Looking back at his last outing, Montgomery took the loss, going 4 2/3 innings and giving up three earned runs on six hits. Before that, he had three straight outings out of the bullpen and didn’t factor into the decision in any of them. Montgomery has made six quality starts this season and is averaging 6.15 strikeouts per nine innings.

Arizona comes into today’s game as the top-scoring team in the league, averaging 5.5 runs per game. They have been even better at home, putting up 5.8 runs per contest. The Diamondbacks’ offense has been one of the league’s best in a number of categories, as they are 1st in OBP, 2nd in batting average, and 2nd in slugging percentage.

Ketel Marte has been swinging a hot bat of late, going 9/29 in his last nine games with three homers. For the season, he is batting .296 with a team-leading 92 RBIs. Eugenio Suarez has also been a key power threat for the Diamondbacks, as he is 2nd on the team with 28 homers and has driven in 97 runs.

• The Diamondbacks are 6-4 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Diamondbacks are 4-1 vs. the run line.
• Arizona has an over/under record of 5-5 in their last ten games.
• The Diamondbacks have an average of 5.6 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Diamondbacks are 5-5
• Looking back across the Diamondbacks last five games as the favorite, they are 4-1
• Arizona has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Diamondbacks have averaged 4.9 runs per game on offense

The Brewers Can Win If…

Frankie Montas will be looking to bounce back from a rough outing vs. the Phillies, as he gets the start for the Brewers today. In that September 17th start, he took the loss, going 5 2/3 innings and giving up three earned runs. Looking at his overall numbers, Montas has made 28 starts and has a record of 7-11. His ERA for the season is 4.50, along with a WHIP of 1.34. Opposing batters have a batting average of .232 vs. Montas this year. Per nine innings, he is averaging 8.62 strikeouts and 3.81 walks. Montas has made nine quality starts this year.

William Contreras has been swinging a hot bat for the Brewers, going 7/17 in his last five games with a home run and four RBIs. For the season, he is batting .284 with 23 homers and is 2nd on the team with 92 RBIs. Willy Adames has been the team’s top power threat this season, as his 32 homers are 10th in the league, and he is also 5th in the MLB with 109 RBIs.

As a team, the Brewers are 7th in the league in scoring at 4.8 runs per game. They have been even better on the road, averaging 5.1 runs per contest. Overall, they are batting .248 (9th) and have the 5th best on-base percentage in the league. Milwaukee comes into the game with the 2nd fewest strikeouts in the league.

• The Brewers are 5-5 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Brewers are 1-4 vs. the run line.
• Milwaukee has an over/under record of 3-6-1 in their last ten games.
• The Brewers have an average of 1.6 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Brewers are 7-3
• Looking back across the Brewers last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• Milwaukee has gone 0-3 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Brewers have averaged 6.2 runs per game on offense

Arizona’s Playoff Push

The Diamondbacks (87-68) are riding high after winning the first three games of the series, including a dominant 5-0 shutout on Saturday. Joc Pederson and Ketel Marte each blasted two-run homers, while starter Merrill Kelly pitched five scoreless innings before exiting with a calf cramp. As Arizona peaks at the right time, manager Torey Lovullo is optimistic about the team’s postseason potential.

Arizona currently sits two games behind the San Diego Padres for the top National League wild-card spot, and they are a game ahead of the third-place New York Mets, who won against the Philadelphia Phillies on Saturday. A win on Sunday would strengthen Arizona’s playoff standing as the regular season nears its conclusion.

Montgomery Aims for Bounce-Back

Jordan Montgomery, making his second consecutive start after a brief stint in the bullpen, will look to bounce back after a shaky outing last Tuesday. He allowed three runs over 4 2/3 innings in an 8-2 loss to the Colorado Rockies. Despite his September struggles (0-1 with a 6.75 ERA), Montgomery has a decent track record against Milwaukee, holding a 2-2 record with a 2.93 ERA in five career starts.

On the offensive side, Ketel Marte has been on fire, hitting .600 (6-for-10) with two home runs, a double, five RBIs, and five walks in the first three games of the series. Marte’s hot bat, combined with strong support from players like Joc Pederson, has been key to Arizona’s recent surge.

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Brewers Eyeing Postseason Reset

The Brewers (88-67), who clinched the NL Central title last Wednesday, have struggled in this series, dropping three straight games. Milwaukee has scored two or fewer runs in four of its last five games. Despite their recent skid, the Brewers are the only team in MLB to avoid a four-game losing streak this season. Manager Pat Murphy remains focused on preparing the team for the postseason, even as they aim to break their slump.

Frankie Montas, who joined Milwaukee from the Cincinnati Reds in July, will look to help the Brewers avoid the sweep. Montas is 3-3 with a 3.55 ERA in nine starts with the Brewers but has struggled against Arizona in the past. In three career starts versus the Diamondbacks, Montas is 1-2 with a 7.24 ERA, including a loss earlier this season on May 7.

Key Players to Watch

• Jordan Montgomery: The left-hander needs a strong performance to help Arizona close out the sweep and keep their playoff push alive.
• Frankie Montas: Milwaukee’s right-hander will look to overcome his struggles against the Diamondbacks and keep the Brewers’ postseason preparations on track.
• Ketel Marte: Marte’s red-hot bat has powered the Diamondbacks throughout the series, and he’ll look to stay hot in the finale.
• Joc Pederson: With timely hitting and power, Pederson has been another crucial piece of Arizona’s playoff push.

As the Diamondbacks push for a wild-card spot and the Brewers gear up for the playoffs, Sunday’s series finale holds significant implications for both teams. Arizona will look to complete the sweep and further solidify their postseason hopes, while Milwaukee hopes to snap their skid and head into the playoffs with momentum.

The Lean

Today’s Diamondbacks and Brewers matchup is our highest projected scoring game of the day, and with the line sitting at 8.5 runs, we are leaning towards taking the over. As for who is going to take this one straight up, we have our lean on the Diamondbacks to pick up the win. Between the two starters, we have Frankie Montas as the better strikeout option.