Milwaukee Brewers vs Philadelphia Phillies Picks and Predictions September 17th 2024

At 7:40 PM ET, the Phillies and Brewers square off in an NL matchup. This one is taking place at American Family Field in Milwaukee, and the Phillies are the favorites on the money line (-141). The Brewers have a money line odds of +120 compared to their division rank of 1st in the NL Central.

The over/under line is currently at 7.5 runs, and TBS will be televising this game. Zack Wheeler is slated to start for the Phillies, while the Brewers are going with Frankie Montas. Philadelphia is 90-60, while the Brewers are 87-63.

Philadelphia vs. Milwaukee Key Information

• Teams: Phillies at Brewers
• Where: American Family Field Milwaukee
• Date: Tuesday, September 17th
• Betting Odds PHI -141 | MIL +120 O/U 7.5

The Phillies Can Win If…

Zack Wheeler has been pitching well for the Phillies, as he has made 29 starts and has a record of 15-6. Wheeler’s ERA for the season is an impressive 2.60, along with a WHIP of .97. In his 29 appearances, he has turned in 23 quality starts and is coming off an outing in which he gave up just two earned runs in six innings of work. Wheeler has won each of his last three starts. Against the Brewers, he has made one appearance and gave up one earned run in 6 innings of work. The right-hander has been tough to beat at home, going 10-3 with a 2.56 ERA compared to 5-3 with a 3.66 ERA on the road.

Philadelphia’s offense has been one of the best in the league this season, averaging 4.8 runs per game, which is 5th in the MLB. They have been even better at home, averaging 5 runs per contest. The Phillies are also among the league leaders in batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging, and they have the 2nd best BABIP in the league.

Over the last five games, Bryce Harper has gone 5/18 with two homers and three RBIs, while Kyle Schwarber is 2/18 in that stretch with two homers. Schwarber is the team’s leader in homers this season, with 35, and is 11th in the league with 96 RBIs. Alec Bohm is also having a strong season at the plate, hitting .287 with 13 homers and 89 RBIs.

• The Phillies are 6-4 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Phillies are 1-4 vs. the run line.
• Philadelphia has an over/under record of 6-3-1 in their last ten games.
• The Phillies have an average of 3.2 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Phillies are 6-4
• Looking back across the Phillies last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• Philadelphia has gone 2-1 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Phillies have averaged 6.9 runs per game on offense

The Brewers Can Win If…

Frankie Montas will be looking to build off his last outing, where he didn’t give up a run and picked up the win. In that outing vs. the Giants, he went six innings and gave up just two hits. Looking at his overall numbers, Montas has made 27 starts and has a record of 7-10. His ERA for the season is 4.49, along with a WHIP of 1.34. Opposing batters have a batting average of .231 vs. Montas this season. Out of his 27 starts, Montas has turned in nine quality starts and is averaging 8.33 strikeouts per nine innings. For the year, he has allowed 18 homers and is walking 3.84 batters per nine innings.

Heading into today’s game, the Brewers are 4th in the league in scoring at 4.9 runs per game. They have been even better on the road this season, averaging 5.1 runs per contest. Milwaukee has been one of the league’s best home run-hitting teams this season and have a team batting average of .250, which is 7th in the MLB.

Willy Adames has been a consistent power threat for the Brewers this season, as he is 9th in the league with 32 home runs and is also 2nd on the team with 109 RBIs. However, he is batting just .250 for the season and has hit just .211 over his last 10 games. William Contreras comes into the game with a batting average of .281 and is 2nd on the team with 90 RBIs.

• The Brewers are 6-4 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Brewers are 5-0 vs. the run line.
• Milwaukee has an over/under record of 3-6-1 in their last ten games.
• The Brewers have an average of 7.2 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Brewers are 7-3
• Looking back across the Brewers last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• Milwaukee has gone 2-1 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Brewers have averaged 6.2 runs per game on offense

Milwaukee Brewers Eye NL Central Title as They Face Phillies in Crucial Showdown

The Milwaukee Brewers are on the brink of securing their second consecutive NL Central title as they host the Philadelphia Phillies on Tuesday night. With their magic number standing at two, a win for Milwaukee combined with a loss by the second-place Chicago Cubs could seal the division for the Brewers.

Frankie Montas Leads Brewers’ Push for Division Title

Starting for the Brewers will be Frankie Montas (7-10, 4.49 ERA), who has shown signs of resurgence since joining the team from the Cincinnati Reds in July. Montas is coming off an impressive performance, allowing just two hits over six scoreless innings in a 3-0 victory over the San Francisco Giants last Thursday. Since joining the Brewers, Montas has posted a 3-2 record with a 3.40 ERA in eight starts, playing a key role in the team’s late-season success.

The Brewers (91-58) will need Montas to maintain that momentum as they aim to clinch the division and set the stage for the playoffs. Milwaukee enters the game with 10 wins in their last 12 contests, fueled by a combination of strong pitching and timely hitting.

Zack Wheeler Continues Cy Young Push for Phillies

Montas will be facing a tough challenge in Zack Wheeler (15-6, 2.60 ERA), who has been one of the most dominant pitchers in the National League this season. Wheeler is a Cy Young contender, having gone 3-1 with a 1.62 ERA in six starts in August and continuing his strong form in September with a 2.25 ERA across two starts.

The Phillies (90-60) are in a tight race for playoff positioning, leading the NL East by eight games over the New York Mets while competing with the Los Angeles Dodgers for the second seed and a first-round playoff bye. Despite their loss on Monday, Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber continued their hot hitting. Harper is batting .376 over his last 23 games, while Schwarber has crushed seven home runs in his past 12 games.

Monday Recap: Brewers Take Series Opener

The Brewers opened the series with a 6-2 victory on Monday, with key contributions from William Contreras, who drove in two runs and has been hitting .400 over his past eight games. Joey Ortiz also chipped in with two RBIs, while starter Aaron Civale delivered a solid performance, allowing just one run over five-plus innings. The Brewers’ win kept them 10 games ahead of the Cubs, who also won their game on Monday.

Manager Pat Murphy remains focused on keeping the Brewers grounded despite the imminent division title. “We’re staying with our nose down, keep playing, and be competitive every game like we have been,” Murphy said. This disciplined approach has kept Milwaukee sharp as they approach the final stretch of the season.

Key Matchup: Montas vs. Wheeler

Tuesday’s matchup features two pitchers at different points in their season trajectories. Montas is looking to continue his strong performances and cement his place in the Brewers’ rotation, while Wheeler is working to bolster his Cy Young candidacy and lead the Phillies to secure their playoff seeding.

The Brewers will need Montas to replicate his recent form, as Wheeler poses a significant challenge with his elite command and ability to limit opposing offenses. Philadelphia’s deep lineup, including the surging Harper and Schwarber, will test Milwaukee’s pitching staff, but the Brewers’ combination of powerful arms and clutch hitting could make the difference.

What’s at Stake

A win on Tuesday could put the Brewers on the cusp of clinching the NL Central title, and a Cubs loss would seal the division crown for Milwaukee. For the Phillies, a victory would help them maintain their lead in the NL East and strengthen their chances for a favorable playoff position.

With both teams pushing toward postseason success, Tuesday’s game has significant implications for the rest of the season. Fans can expect a high-stakes battle as Montas and Wheeler take the mound in this pivotal matchup.

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The Lean

Today’s Phillies vs. Brewers matchup should feature plenty of offense, as this is projected to be the 10th highest-scoring game of today’s league slate. Our lean would be to take the over, and we are also leaning toward the Brewers to come out on top. Between the two starters, we have Frankie Montas as today’s 3rd best strikeout option.