St. Louis Cardinals vs Cleveland Guardians Picks and Predictions September 20th 2024

Ben Lively gets the start for the Guardians on Friday, as they will be looking to keep their two-game win streak alive. The Guardians are 89-65 and they are 1st in the AL Central. Kyle Gibson is starting for the Cardinals, and they are 3rd in the NL Central with an overall record of 77-76.

St. Louis is the slight favorite on the money line, with their odds sitting at -114 compared to the Guardians at -104. The over/under line is currently 8.5 runs, and the forecasted temperature in St. Louis is 96 degrees with scattered clouds.

Cleveland vs. St. Louis Key Information

Ben Lively will be looking to build off his last outing, where he didn’t give up a run and picked up the win. In that outing vs. the Rays, he went five innings and gave up just two hits. Looking at his overall numbers, Lively has made 27 starts and has a record of 12-9. His ERA for the season is 3.87, along with a WHIP of 1.23. For the year, he has allowed 23 home runs. Lively has made nine quality starts this year and is averaging 7.1 strikeouts per nine innings. For the season, he has walked 2.79 batters per nine innings.

Jose Ramirez and Josh Naylor have been the Guardians’ top power threats this season, with Ramirez leading the team with 35 homers (7th in the league) and Naylor right behind him with 31. Ramirez also has the 6th most RBIs in the league, while Naylor is 7th in that category. Ramirez has gone 9/31 in his last eight games, while Naylor has also been swinging a hot bat, going 8/31 in that stretch with two homers.

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As a team, the Guardians are averaging 4.4 runs per game and are batting a collective .238. They have been good at avoiding strikeouts this season and have the league’s worst BABIP. Cleveland’s offense has been pretty consistent this season, averaging 4.1 runs per game on the road and 4.7 runs per game at home.

Right-hander Kyle Gibson is getting the start for the Cardinals today as he faces the Guardians at home. He has made 28 starts this season and has a record of 8-7 with a 4.12 ERA. Looking at his overall numbers, Gibson has a WHIP of 1.33 and has turned in 12 quality starts. In his 28 appearances, he has a batting average allowed of .247 and is averaging 8.12 strikeouts per nine innings. Gibson’s last outing came on September 14th, where he took the loss, giving up one earned run in 5 1/3 innings of work. Before that, he had gone 6 2/3 innings without giving up a run.

St. Louis comes into the game with the 24th ranked scoring offense in the league, averaging 4.1 runs per contest. They have been slightly better at home, putting up 4.2 runs per game. The Cardinals are also near the bottom of the league in home runs, as they are just 21st in the league in that category. As a team, they are batting .246, which is 10th in the league.

Over the team’s last six games, Brendan Donovan has been swinging a hot bat, going 9/22 with a home run and five RBIs. This has pushed his season average to .277, which is 2nd on the team. Alec Burleson and Paul Goldschmidt are tied for the team lead in homers, with 21 apiece.

For an over/under pick, our lean is on the over, as this is projected to be the 10th highest-scoring game of the day. As for who is going to take this one straight up, we have our lean on the Cardinals to pick up the win. St. Louis starter Kyle Gibson comes into this one with the 10th best odds to pick up a win and the Cardinals offense has our 5th highest team hits projection. On the other side, Ben Lively has the lowest strikeout projection among today’s starters.

Playoff-Bound Guardians Look to Extend Momentum in Series Opener Against Cardinals

The Cleveland Guardians, fresh off clinching a postseason berth, head to St. Louis for a three-game series against the Cardinals with the chance to secure the American League Central title and improve their playoff seeding. The Guardians (89-65) are riding high after a strong stretch of baseball, winning five of their last six games, and will look to keep that momentum going when they face the Cardinals (77-76) on Friday night.

Cleveland manager Stephen Vogt has praised his team’s resilience and chemistry throughout the season.

“This group of guys, we talk about it all year, they care about each other, they come together,” Vogt said. “This is a hard game. Every night you go out, you put your body on the line, and your mind and everything, they stick to each other and they celebrate every win.”

The Guardians have been particularly strong in recent games, winning their last two in walk-off fashion, which has given them confidence heading into this series.

Guardians Turn to Ben Lively

Cleveland will hand the ball to right-hander Ben Lively (12-9, 3.87 ERA) for the series opener. Lively is coming off a dominant performance in his last start, where he held the Tampa Bay Rays scoreless over five innings, scattering four hits in a 2-0 win. That outing marked a strong bounce-back for Lively, who had struggled in his previous start after being hit by a comebacker.

While Lively has been effective this season, he has had mixed results in his limited appearances against the Cardinals. In three career outings (two starts) versus St. Louis, he has a 1-1 record with a 5.87 ERA. He will be looking to continue his recent form and help Cleveland move closer to securing the AL Central title.

Cardinals Look to Finish Strong

The Cardinals, who were eliminated from playoff contention earlier, are aiming to finish their season on a high note. St. Louis took three of four games from the Pittsburgh Pirates before dropping the series finale 3-2 on Thursday. One bright spot for the Cardinals has been the performance of Brendan Donovan, who went 4-for-4 with a double and two RBIs in Thursday’s loss.

Donovan has been on fire in September, batting .400 with a 1.068 OPS, and his manager, Oliver Marmol, has taken notice.

“He’s locked in right now,” Marmol said. “He’s taking some really good at-bats. … He just continues to take gritty at-bats. He’s staying inside the baseball and staying on the line and using the whole field.”

The Cardinals will need Donovan and the rest of their offense to step up against a Cleveland team that has been pitching well down the stretch.

Kyle Gibson Takes the Mound for St. Louis

The Cardinals will counter with right-hander Kyle Gibson (8-7, 4.11 ERA), who has been in excellent form over his last three starts. During that span, Gibson has allowed just two earned runs over 19 innings, striking out 16 batters while limiting opposing hitters to 12 hits. However, his recent outings have been marred by control issues, as he has walked three batters in each of his last two starts.

In his most recent start against the Toronto Blue Jays, fielding miscues and a pair of walks led to four unearned runs, resulting in a 7-2 loss for Gibson and the Cardinals.

“It’s unfortunate how the outing ended, but overall I felt pretty good,” Gibson said after the game. “I just wish I could have avoided those two walks there in the sixth.”

Facing Cleveland has historically been a challenge for Gibson, who holds a 5-10 record with a 5.29 ERA in 23 career appearances against the Guardians. He’ll look to turn the tide and close his season on a high note.

Key Players to Watch

1. Ben Lively (Guardians): Lively’s strong performance against Tampa Bay last time out could be key for Cleveland as they try to inch closer to an AL Central title. How he handles the Cardinals’ lineup, especially with Brendan Donovan hot at the plate, will be critical.
2. Brendan Donovan (Cardinals): Donovan has been tearing the cover off the ball in September, and his ability to spark the offense will be crucial for St. Louis as they try to play spoiler in this series.
3. Kyle Gibson (Cardinals): Gibson’s recent form has been solid, but his history against Cleveland is less than stellar. He’ll need to avoid walks and command the strike zone to keep the Guardians’ offense in check.

Playoff Implications for Cleveland

For Cleveland, the focus now shifts to maintaining their current form as they look to lock up the AL Central title and improve their seeding for the playoffs. The Guardians have been playing well at the right time, and a strong showing in this series would give them further momentum heading into the postseason.

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As the Guardians open their series in St. Louis, every game matters for both their division standing and potential playoff matchups. With the postseason secured, Cleveland’s next goal is clear: win the division and enter October baseball on a high note.

Final Thoughts

With one team eyeing playoff success and another looking to finish the season strong, Friday’s series opener between the Guardians and Cardinals offers plenty of intrigue. Ben Lively and Kyle Gibson will look to lead their respective teams, while Brendan Donovan and Blake Dunn provide offensive sparks for their lineups. As the Guardians push toward the AL Central crown, the Cardinals will try to play spoiler and end their season with pride.