St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Mets Picks and Predictions August 5th 2024

Cardinals, minus Willson Contreras, hope to slow Mets

Both the Mets and Cardinals are looking to get back on track, as they are each on a two-game losing streak. The Mets are 58-53 this season, while the Cardinals are 57-55. This game will be played at 5:15 PM ET from Busch Stadium in St. Louis, and SNY has the Mets as the favorite on the money line (-118).

Monday’s forecast in St. Louis calls for clear skies and temperatures in the mid-90s. The over/under line is currently at 9 runs, and the Cardinals are the slight money line favorite at -101. Sean Manaea will start for the Mets, while the Cardinals are going with Andre Pallante.

New York vs. St. Louis Key Information

• Teams: Mets at Cardinals
• Where: Busch Stadium St. Louis
• Date: Monday, August 5th
• Betting Odds NYM -118 | STL -101 O/U 9

The Mets Can Win If…

Sean Manaea gets the start for the Mets today as he faces the Cardinals on the road. He has made 21 starts this season and has a record of 7-4 to go along with a 3.50 ERA. Manaea’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.20. In his last outing, Manaea was fantastic, as he went seven innings, giving up no runs, and picking up the win. Looking back further, he has given up five earned runs in two of his last four outings. Manaea has a total of seven quality starts this season.

Heading into today’s game, the Mets are 8th in the league in scoring at 4.8 runs per game. They have been even better on the road, putting up 5.2 runs per contest. Overall, they are one of the league’s top home run-hitting teams and are also 5th in team slugging percentage. As a team, the Mets are batting .249, which is the 10th best mark in the league.

Francisco Lindor has been swinging a hot bat of late, going 9/27 in his last eight games. He is also on a four-game hitting streak. For the season, he is batting .256 with 22 homers and 64 RBIs. Pete Alonso leads the Mets with 23 homers but has struggled of late, hitting just .212 in his last nine games. Brandon Nimmo has been the Mets’ top run producer this season, with 65 RBIs.

• The Mets are 5-5 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Mets are 2-3 vs. the run line.
• New York has an over/under record of 4-5-1 in their last ten games.
• The Mets have an average of 3.2 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Mets are 5-5
• Looking back across the Mets last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• New York has gone 2-1 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Mets have averaged 4.1 runs per game on offense

The Cardinals Can Win If…

St. Louis is sending right-hander Andre Pallante to the mound today vs. the Mets. He has made 10 starts this year and has a record of 4-5 with an ERA of 4.04. Pallante’s WHIP for the season is 1.36. In his 19 appearances, he has turned in three quality starts. Pallante’s ERA at home is 2.84, compared to 4.24 on the road. The last time he pitched, he took the loss, giving up three earned runs in five innings of work vs. the Rangers. Before that, he had gone three straight outings without giving up a home run.

So far this season, the Cardinals offense has been pretty average, as they are 22nd in runs per game (4.2) and have the league’s 11th best batting average. St. Louis has been a bit better at home, averaging 4.4 runs per game, compared to 4.0 on the road. As a team, they are 17th in home runs and have a collective on-base percentage of just .309.

Alec Burleson and Nolan Gorman are tied for the team lead with 19 home runs, with Burleson’s 64 RBIs being the best mark on the team and Gorman’s 50 RBIs being 3rd. Both players have batting averages above .275. Over his last 10 games, Masyn Winn has gone 11/45 with four homers and eight RBIs.

• The Cardinals are 4-6 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Cardinals are 1-4 vs. the run line.
• St. Louis has an over/under record of 8-2 in their last ten games.
• The Cardinals have an average of 4.8 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Cardinals are 4-6
• Looking back across the Cardinals last five games as the favorite, they are 2-3
• St. Louis has gone 2-1 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Cardinals have averaged 3.4 runs per game on offense

The Lean

Today’s matchup between the Mets and Cardinals has the lowest combined runs projection and 2nd lowest total hits projection. We are leaning towards the Cardinals picking up the win at home, and our lean would be to take the under. Looking at the starters for this matchup, we have Andre Pallante as our 9th best strikeout pitcher compared to Sean Manaea, who is 4th worst.

The St. Louis Cardinals are grappling with a challenging season as they face the New York Mets in the final game of their three-game home series. The recent loss of their star catcher, Willson Contreras, to a broken left forearm, has added to the team’s troubles, casting uncertainty over their performance and strategy moving forward. As the Cardinals aim to bounce back, they must navigate the absence of Contreras and leverage the strengths of their backup players and pitching staff.

Impact of Willson Contreras’ Injury on the Cardinals

The Cardinals’ season took a significant hit when Willson Contreras sustained a broken left forearm during their 7-5 loss to the New York Mets. Contreras, known for his strong hitting and competitive spirit, was injured when his arm was struck by J.D. Martinez’s bat swing. This unfortunate incident added to the team’s four-game losing streak and marked their sixth defeat in seven games.

Manager’s Reaction to the Setback

Cardinals manager Oliver Marmol expressed his disappointment over losing such a vital player. “It’s a tough one,” Marmol said, highlighting Contreras’ value not only for his performance but also for his leadership on the field. The injury presents a substantial challenge for the team, which will need to adjust its strategy in Contreras’ absence.

Emergence of Ivan Herrera

With Contreras out, backup catcher Ivan Herrera stepped into the spotlight. In a commendable performance, Herrera went 2-for-4 after replacing Contreras in the second inning, showcasing his potential to fill the void left by Contreras. Additionally, catcher Pedro Pages, who was recently sent to the minors, is expected to return and support the team as they adjust their lineup.

Mets’ Continued Success and Player Performances

While the Cardinals face adversity, the New York Mets have found momentum in their series against St. Louis. Brandon Nimmo has been a standout performer, going 3-for-9 with two home runs, three runs, and four RBIs, significantly contributing to the Mets’ success in the first two games of the series.

Pete Alonso’s Breakout Game

Pete Alonso, who had been struggling with a 1-for-29 slump over his previous nine games, made a dramatic turnaround with a two-run double and a solo homer on Tuesday. His resurgence is a testament to the Mets’ depth and offensive capability, presenting a formidable challenge for the Cardinals.

Pitching Matchups: Quintana vs. Gray

Jose Quintana’s Redemption Quest

The Mets will rely on left-hander Jose Quintana as he looks to rebound from a difficult outing against the Tampa Bay Rays, where he allowed eight runs on 10 hits over just 2 2/3 innings. Despite this setback, Quintana has generally been a reliable presence on the mound, holding opponents to two runs or fewer in four of his six starts this season. His ability to bounce back will be crucial for the Mets as they seek to sweep the series.

Sonny Gray’s Steady Performance for the Cardinals

The Cardinals will counter with right-hander Sonny Gray, who has been a pillar of consistency with a 4-1 record and an impressive 0.89 ERA. Gray’s latest performance saw him deliver seven scoreless innings in a 3-0 victory over the Chicago White Sox, highlighting his skill and preparedness. Gray’s strategic approach and execution will be vital as the Cardinals aim to halt their losing streak.

Head-to-Head Pitching Stats

Gray boasts a strong track record against the Mets, maintaining a 4-0 record with a 2.31 ERA in four starts. Conversely, Quintana has experienced success against the Cardinals in his career, holding a 6-4 record with a 3.95 ERA in 14 starts. These statistics underscore the pivotal role pitching will play in the final game of the series.

Strategies for Cardinals’ Comeback

Utilizing Team Depth

To overcome the loss of Contreras, the Cardinals must tap into their team’s depth. The performances of players like Ivan Herrera and Pedro Pages will be crucial as they look to fill the gap and maintain competitive play.

Focusing on Pitching Strength

With Sonny Gray leading the pitching staff, the Cardinals have an opportunity to capitalize on their strengths in pitching. Ensuring a solid defensive performance will be essential in countering the Mets’ offensive threats.

Adapting Offensive Strategy

Without Contreras, the Cardinals must adapt their offensive strategy to leverage other players’ strengths. Collaboration and adaptability will be key as they seek to regain momentum.

Conclusion

As the Cardinals conclude their series against the Mets, they face the dual challenge of adjusting to Willson Contreras’ absence and reversing their recent slump. With strategic adjustments and strong performances from key players like Sonny Gray and Ivan Herrera, the Cardinals aim to turn their season around. The outcome of this series will be a critical indicator of the team’s resilience and adaptability in the face of adversity.

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