St. Louis Cardinals vs San Diego Padres Picks and Predictions August 26th 2024

Jackson Merrill, Padres look to pick up steam vs. Cards

Joe Musgrove will start for the Padres on Wednesday, as they are on the road to face the Cardinals at Busch Stadium in St. Louis. The Cardinals will be looking to snap a two-game losing streak, but they are the slight underdog on the money line (+112). The over/under line is currently 8.5 runs.

San Diego is 76-58 overall and they have won three straight games. The Cardinals are 3rd in the NL Central with a record of 65-67. Andre Pallante is slated to start for St. Louis. BSMW is carrying this game on TV.

San Diego vs. St. Louis Key Information

• Teams: Padres at Cardinals
• Where: Busch Stadium St. Louis
• Date: Wednesday, August 28th
• Betting Odds SD -132 | STL +112 O/U 8.5

The Padres Can Win If…

Joe Musgrove will be looking to build off his last outing, where he didn’t give up a run and picked up the win. In that start vs. the Mets, he went seven innings and didn’t give up a walk. Looking at his overall numbers, Musgrove has made 13 starts, and his record for the season is 4-4. The right-hander’s ERA is 4.43, along with a WHIP of 1.26. For the year, he has allowed 10 home runs. Musgrove has made five quality starts this year and is averaging 8.31 strikeouts per nine innings.

San Diego has the MLB’s top batting average at .265 and are also the league’s top home run hitting team. So far, they are averaging 4.8 runs per game, which is 11th in the league. The Padres have been even better on the road, averaging 5.1 runs per contest. Collectively, they are the league’s top team in terms of fewest strikeouts per game.

Jurickson Profar has been the Padres’ top run producer this season, as his 80 RBIs are the best mark on the team. He also has 21 homers, which is 2nd on the team and 15th in the league. Manny Machado has gone 8/20 in his last five games, including two homers and five RBIs. His 22 homers is the best mark on the team and 14th in the MLB.

• The Padres are 6-4 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Padres are 3-2 vs. the run line.
• San Diego has an over/under record of 7-3 in their last ten games.
• The Padres have an average of 5.0 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Padres are 7-3
• Looking back across the Padres last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• San Diego has gone 3-0 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Padres have averaged 6.4 runs per game on offense

The Cardinals Can Win If…

Right-hander Andre Pallante gets the start for the Cardinals today as he faces the Padres at home. Pallante has made 14 starts this season and has a record of 6-6 with a 3.84 ERA. Looking back at his last outing, Pallante picked up the win vs. the Twins, going seven innings and giving up just one earned run. He has actually won each of his last two starts, giving up a total of three earned runs in that span. Pallante has a WHIP of 1.29 this season and has issued 3.43 walks per nine innings compared to 6.75 strikeouts.

For the season, the Cardinals are averaging 4.1 runs per game, which is 24th in the league. One thing to keep an eye on is that they are just 26th in the league in runs per game on the road, but are 15th in the league in home games. As a team, they are batting .246, which is 10th in the MLB, and are also near the top of the league in terms of team on-base percentage and batting average on balls in play.

Over the team’s last nine games, Masyn Winn has gone 14/38, and Alec Burleson and Paul Goldschmidt have each gone deep once. Goldschmidt is just 7/26 in his last seven games and is batting just .231 for the season. However, he does have 20 homers, which is 2nd on the team.

• The Cardinals are 5-5 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Cardinals are 2-3 vs. the run line.
• St. Louis has an over/under record of 3-7 in their last ten games.
• The Cardinals have an average of 3.6 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Cardinals are 4-6
• Looking back across the Cardinals last five games as the favorite, they are 1-4
• St. Louis has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Cardinals have averaged 3.1 runs per game on offense

The Lean

For an over/under pick, our lean is on the over, as this is projected to be the 5th highest-scoring game of the day. As for who is going to take this one straight up, we have our lean on the Cardinals to pick up the win. St. Louis has the 5th best team ERA in the league, and Andre Pallante is our 3rd ranked starter of the day in terms of fewest earned runs allowed. Joe Musgrove is 18th in our projections in terms of strikeouts.

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Mike Shildt’s return to St. Louis comes at a pivotal time for both his current team, the San Diego Padres, and his former franchise, the St. Louis Cardinals. As the Padres chase a National League (NL) playoff berth, the Cardinals are fighting to stay in contention, making this four-game series crucial for both teams.

Padres and Cardinals in the Playoff Race

The Padres entered the series holding the NL’s second wild-card slot, but their recent performance has been inconsistent. Since reaching 16 games over .500 on August 14, they’ve gone 5-5, including a split in their four-game series at home against the New York Mets. Despite this, they remain a strong contender in the playoff race.

The Cardinals, on the other hand, have shown signs of resurgence. After winning consecutive series for the first time since early July, they climbed back to .500 and are just five games behind the Atlanta Braves for the final wild-card spot. Their recent success, including a series win against the Milwaukee Brewers and another against the Minnesota Twins, has given them a fighting chance.

Jackson Merrill’s Clutch Performances Propel Padres

Jackson Merrill has emerged as a crucial player for the Padres in high-pressure situations. On Sunday, he delivered a walk-off homer, continuing a trend of clutch hitting in late-game scenarios. In 14 plate appearances with the Padres tied or trailing by a run in the ninth inning, Merrill is hitting .583 with a walk and five homers.

Shildt praised Merrill’s ability to stay composed during critical moments. “He’s got this wonderful ability to slow the game down in bigger moments, allow his unbelievable ability to play,” Shildt said. “Jackson makes it about what he’s going to do. He’s respectful about what he’s going to see and is looking to compete and figure out how he’s going to get the upper hand of it.”

Monday Night Recap: Padres Overcome Cardinals

The Padres took the first game of the series on Monday night with a 7-4 victory, thanks to standout performances from Manny Machado and Jackson Merrill.

Machado, one of the Padres’ key players, continued his strong season by hitting a two-run homer in the first inning and later adding an RBI double. His contributions set the tone early, giving the Padres a 2-0 lead.

Jackson Merrill, continuing his clutch play, had two hits and three RBIs, including a two-out single in the third inning that drove in two runs, extending the Padres’ lead to 4-1.

Randy Vasquez, recalled from Triple-A El Paso earlier in the day, delivered a solid start for the Padres. He allowed two runs on six hits over six innings, walking two and striking out two. His performance was crucial in stabilizing the game and securing the win.

Cardinals’ Struggles and Bright Spots

The Cardinals had their moments in the game but were ultimately undone by their starting pitching. Kyle Gibson struggled, allowing seven runs on five hits and four walks over 4 1/3 innings. Despite a strong start to the season, this outing marked Gibson’s second consecutive rough start against the Padres.

Alec Burleson and Masyn Winn provided some offensive highlights for the Cardinals. Burleson went 3-for-5 with two RBIs, and Winn finished 3-for-4 with a walk and two runs scored. However, their efforts were not enough to overcome the Padres’ early lead.

Implications for the Series and Playoff Race

This victory was vital for the Padres as it allowed them to maintain momentum in the wild-card race. With the competition tightening as the season progresses, every win counts, and the Padres will need to continue this level of play to secure their spot in the postseason.

For the Cardinals, the loss was a setback in their quest to close the gap in the wild-card race. With Willson Contreras sidelined by a broken finger, the Cardinals will need other players to step up. Nolan Arenado and Lars Nootbaar have been consistent, but the team needs more from its pitching staff if it hopes to stay in contention.

Looking Ahead: Key Matchups

As the series continues, both teams have much at stake. The Padres will rely on their offense, led by Machado and Merrill, while hoping for continued strong performances from their pitching staff. The Cardinals will need a bounce-back effort from their rotation and continued offensive contributions from players like Nootbaar and Arenado.

The series is shaping up to be a critical juncture in the NL playoff race, with both teams looking to build momentum as the regular season winds down.