St. Louis Cardinals vs San Diego Padres Picks and Predictions August 27th 2024

Mike Shildt, Padres shoot for another win over Cards

At 7:45 PM ET, the Padres and Cardinals will face off in an NL matchup. This one is taking place at Busch Stadium in St. Louis, and the Cardinals are the slight favorite on the money line, with their odds sitting at -110 compared to the Padres at -109. The over/under line is currently 9.5 runs.

San Diego will be looking for a win to keep pace with the Giants and Dodgers in the NL West. They are currently 3rd in the division with a record of 74-58. As for the Cardinals, they are 2nd in the NL Central at 65-65. Monday’s forecast in St. Louis calls for broken clouds and temperatures near 100 degrees.

San Diego vs. St. Louis Key Information

• Teams: Padres at Cardinals
• Where: Busch Stadium St. Louis
• Date: Monday, August 26th
• Betting Odds STL -110 | SD -109 O/U 9.5

The Padres Can Win If…

Randy Vásquez gets the start for the Padres today as he faces the Cardinals on the road. So far this season, he has made 17 starts and has a record of 3-6 with an ERA of 4.63. Vásquez’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.51. In his 17 starts, he has turned in four quality starts and is averaging 5.84 strikeouts per nine innings. Vásquez most recently pitched on August 8th, where he finished with a no-decision, giving up three earned runs in 5 2/3 innings of work. He has not lost back-to-back starts since June.

So far this season, the Padres have been the league’s best hitting team, with a team batting average of .265. They are also the top home run hitting team in the league and have the best slugging percentage in the league. Overall, they are averaging 4.7 runs per game, which is 11th in the league. The Padres have been even better on the road, averaging 5 runs per contest.

Jurickson Profar has been a key part of the Padres offense this season, leading the team with 21 homers and 79 RBIs, while batting .291. Manny Machado is also a significant power threat, as he has 20 homers and 74 RBIs. Over the team’s last six games, Profar has gone 7/23 with two homers and six RBIs, while Jackson Merrill has also hit two homers in this stretch, going 6/23.

• The Padres are 5-5 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Padres are 1-4 vs. the run line.
• San Diego has an over/under record of 6-4 in their last ten games.
• The Padres have an average of 3.6 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Padres are 6-4
• Looking back across the Padres last five games as the favorite, they are 2-3
• San Diego has gone 2-1 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Padres have averaged 6.2 runs per game on offense

The Cardinals Can Win If…

St. Louis is sending right-hander Kyle Gibson to the mound today vs. the Padres. He has made 24 starts this year and has a record of 7-5 with an ERA of 4.22. Looking at his overall numbers, Gibson has a WHIP of 1.36 and has issued 3.43 walks per nine innings compared to 8.32 strikeouts. Gibson has made 10 quality starts this year and is coming off an outing in which he finished with a no-decision. In that start vs. the Brewers, he went 5 1/3 innings, giving up two earned runs, and two homers. One of those homers came in the first inning. Before that outing, he had given up a homer in three straight starts.

Currently, the Cardinals are averaging 4.1 runs per game, which is 24th in the league. At home, they have been slightly better, averaging 4.3 runs per game. As a team, they are batting .245, which is 10th in the league, and have the 10th fewest strikeouts in the league. St. Louis has been good at putting the ball in play, as they have the 10th best BABIP in the MLB.

Right fielder Alec Burleson has been the Cardinals’ best power threat this season, as his 21 homers are the most on the team and 14th in the league. He is also the team’s leading run producer, with 70 RBIs. Nolan Arenado has been swinging a hot bat of late, going 11/33 in his last eight games, with two homers and six RBIs. For the season, he is batting .273 with 14 homers.

• The Cardinals are 5-5 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Cardinals are 4-1 vs. the run line.
• St. Louis has an over/under record of 3-7 in their last ten games.
• The Cardinals have an average of 4.4 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Cardinals are 4-6
• Looking back across the Cardinals last five games as the favorite, they are 1-4
• St. Louis has gone 2-1 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Cardinals have averaged 3.1 runs per game on offense

The Lean

Today’s matchup between the Padres and Cardinals has the 2nd highest combined runs projection and 2nd highest total hits projection. Our lean would be to the over, and for a play on the money line, we would be leaning towards the Padres to pick up the win. Looking at today’s starters, Randy Vásquez has the 4th best odds to earn the win, while Kyle Gibson has the 2nd worst strikeout projection among today’s starters.

San Diego Padres manager Mike Shildt is relishing his return to St. Louis, the city where he made his mark by leading the Cardinals to three consecutive postseason appearances before his unexpected dismissal in 2021. Now, as the Padres push for a playoff spot, Shildt’s focus remains on the field, but the return is undeniably meaningful.

“It’s good to come back,” Shildt shared, reflecting on his time with the Cardinals. “A lot of people that you want to see, and a lot of good relationships, a lot of really, really good memories and people. But mostly, it’s about the Padres coming in and playing good baseball.”

Padres Surge with a 7-4 Victory in Series Opener

The Padres delivered exactly what Shildt hoped for in the series opener, defeating the Cardinals 7-4. Manny Machado and Jackson Merrill led the charge, each driving in three runs, showcasing the team’s offensive depth. This win marked San Diego’s third victory in their last four games, underscoring their momentum as they approach the season’s critical stretch.

As the Padres prepare for their next game, they’re fueled by more than just recent success. The imminent returns of pitcher Yu Darvish and slugger Fernando Tatis Jr. from the injured list have injected new energy into the clubhouse.

“It’s getting real,” said Merrill, capturing the team’s growing excitement. “We’re getting down to crunch time, and we’re getting our boys back, so we’re all excited.”

Dylan Cease vs. Miles Mikolas: A Pitcher’s Duel on the Horizon

Tuesday night’s matchup features Padres right-hander Dylan Cease (12-10, 3.43 ERA) facing off against the Cardinals’ Miles Mikolas (8-10, 5.19 ERA). Cease, who has been a reliable arm for San Diego, is coming off a tough loss against the New York Mets despite a strong outing where he allowed three runs (two earned) over 6 1/3 innings. He also struck out seven batters, showcasing his ability to dominate on the mound.

Cease didn’t face the Cardinals earlier this season, but in his lone career start against them in July 2023, he allowed five runs on 11 hits over six innings. In that game, Nolan Arenado took him deep for a two-run homer, a memory Cease will surely use as motivation.

On the other side, Mikolas, a former Padre, is coming off one of his best starts of the season. Last Thursday, he shut down the Milwaukee Brewers over six innings, allowing just two hits in a game the Cardinals won 3-0. His recent success, attributed to mechanical tweaks that have improved his fastball and sinker, has revitalized his season.

“I think I’ve been hiding the ball a little bit better in my delivery,” Mikolas explained. “It keeps guys a little more honest on the fastball. I think it helps my movement on the sinker as well. It helps make them two very different pitches, one that’s holding the line as much as possible and then one where it’s just kind of running and staying down in the zone and getting underneath the barrel.”

Mikolas has a solid track record against his former team, posting a 3-2 record with a 2.55 ERA in seven career starts against the Padres. His familiarity with the organization and his recent adjustments make him a formidable opponent for San Diego.

Playoff Push Intensifies for San Diego

As the Padres inch closer to September, every game becomes crucial. The return of Darvish and Tatis Jr. is timely, bolstering both the rotation and the lineup for the playoff race. The team is well aware that the road ahead is challenging, with opponents either entrenched in playoff positions or fighting to get there.

“We’re getting into the end of the season, and I know we have a lot of games that are against teams that are either going to be in the playoffs or trying to scrap their way there,” Mikolas noted. “So every base, every play, every bag, every pitch matters this time of year.”

For the Padres, every game is an opportunity to solidify their playoff position and gain momentum. Shildt, with his deep knowledge of the Cardinals and their ballpark, is well-positioned to guide his team through this critical series.

Conclusion: Shildt’s Dual Mission in St. Louis

While Mike Shildt’s return to St. Louis is filled with personal significance, his primary mission is to lead the Padres to victory. The team’s performance in the series opener, combined with the return of key players, sets the stage for an intense battle as the Padres continue their push for the postseason. With Dylan Cease on the mound and the team’s confidence growing, San Diego is poised to build on its recent success.

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