St. Louis Cardinals vs Tampa Bay Rays Picks and Predictions August 7th 2024

Erick Fedde aims to lead Cardinals vs. Rays in home debut

At 7:45 PM ET, the Rays and Cardinals square off in an interleague matchup. This one is being played at Busch Stadium in St. Louis, and the Cardinals are favored on the money line, with their odds sitting at -119. The money line odds for the Rays are at +101. The over/under line is currently at 7.5 runs.

Taj Bradley will be on the mound for the Rays, while the Cardinals are set to start Erick Fedde. The Rays are 4th in the AL East, while the Cardinals are 2nd in the NL Central. BSMW is carrying this game on TV.

Tampa Bay vs. St. Louis Key Information

• Teams: Rays at Cardinals
• Where: Busch Stadium St. Louis
• Date: Wednesday, August 7th
• Betting Odds STL -119 | TB +101 O/U 7.5

The Rays Can Win If…

Taj Bradley gets the start for the Rays today as he faces the Cardinals on the road. So far this season, he has made 15 starts and has a record of 6-5. Bradley’s ERA for the season is 2.71, along with a WHIP of 1.01. In his 15 starts, he has turned in seven quality starts and is averaging 10.74 strikeouts per nine innings. Bradley’s last outing came on July 31st, where he took the loss, giving up four earned runs in five innings of work. Before that, he had won three straight starts.

Yandy Diaz has been a consistent hitter for the Rays this season, batting .275 overall and has gone 10/34 in his last nine games. He also has two homers in this stretch. Christopher Morel has struggled this season, hitting just .195, and has gone 2/17 in his last five games. However, he does lead the team with 20 homers. Morel also has driven in 53 runs, which is the best mark on the team.

As a team, the Rays are averaging just 4 runs per game, which is 27th in the majors. They also haven’t been great in terms of batting average or slugging percentage. However, they do come into the game with a good walk rate. The Rays will be looking for Brandon Lowe to stay hot, as he is hitting .432 over his last 10 games.

• The Rays are 6-4 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Rays are 4-1 vs. the run line.
• Tampa Bay has an over/under record of 3-7 in their last ten games.
• The Rays have an average of 2.8 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Rays are 6-4
• Looking back across the Rays last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• Tampa Bay has gone 2-1 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Rays have averaged 4.8 runs per game on offense

The Cardinals Can Win If…

Right-hander Erick Fedde gets the start for the Cardinals today as he faces off against the Rays. He comes into the game with a record of 7-5 and an ERA of 3.34. Fedde has made 22 starts this year and has turned in 10 quality starts. In his last outing, he took the loss, giving up five earned runs in five innings of work. Before that, he had given up a homer in three straight starts. Fedde has been much better at home, coming in with a 2.09 ERA compared to 4.71 on the road.

Heading into today’s game, the Cardinals are averaging 4.1 runs per game, which is 24th in the league. They have been slightly better at home, averaging 4.3 runs per game. As a team, the Cardinals are batting .245, which is 10th in the league, and they have the 16th ranked home run total in the league. St. Louis will be looking for more power from Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Gorman, as they are 2nd and 3rd on the team in homers, but Goldschmidt is batting just .228, and Gorman is hitting just .200.

Over his last 10 games, Masyn Winn has three homers and is batting .238. For the season, he is batting .280 with nine homers. Alec Burleson and Nolan Gorman are tied for the team lead in homers, with 19 apiece. Burleson also leads the team with 64 RBIs and is batting .273.

• The Cardinals are 5-5 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Cardinals are 0-5 vs. the run line.
• St. Louis has an over/under record of 6-4 in their last ten games.
• The Cardinals have an average of 2.8 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Cardinals are 4-6
• Looking back across the Cardinals last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• St. Louis has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Cardinals have averaged 3.4 runs per game on offense

The Lean

Our lean in this one is to take the Cardinals to win straight-up over the Rays. And despite our projections pointing to this being the 2nd lowest-scoring game of the day, we are leaning towards taking the over. St. Louis starter Erick Fedde comes into the game with the 4th lowest projected earned runs allowed total among today’s starters.

Erick Fedde, a right-handed pitcher for the St. Louis Cardinals, is preparing for a crucial home debut after a rocky start against the Chicago Cubs. As Fedde looks to make a strong impression in front of his new home crowd, he faces the formidable Tampa Bay Rays in the middle game of a three-game series. This matchup will not only test Fedde’s resilience but also highlight the impact of recent player trades on both teams.

Erick Fedde’s Challenges and Opportunities

Fedde’s Debut Struggles

• Initial Performance: Fedde joined the Cardinals from the Chicago White Sox ahead of the trade deadline. In his debut against the Cubs, he allowed five runs on six hits, including two home runs, over five innings, resulting in a 6-3 loss.
• Lessons Learned: Fedde admitted to struggling with his command, stating, “I think I let the moment get a little big and let things speed up rather than being calm and collected.” He recognized the need to control the game’s tempo and avoid rushing his pitches.

A Chance for Redemption

• Previous Success Against the Rays: Earlier this season, Fedde delivered a strong performance against the Rays while with the White Sox, securing a 4-2 victory. He allowed only two runs on seven hits and struck out nine over 8 1/3 innings. This experience could provide Fedde with the confidence needed to succeed in his upcoming start.
• Focus on Command: Fedde’s ability to improve his pitch location and maintain composure will be crucial for his success. “Honestly, just had terrible command,” he noted, emphasizing the importance of hitting his spots and avoiding extended at-bats.

Cardinals’ Recent Performance and Team Dynamics

Key Players in the Series Opener

• Victor Scott II and Tommy Pham: Both players contributed significantly to the Cardinals’ 4-3 victory over the Rays in the series opener by each hitting a two-run homer.
• Brandon Lowe: Lowe’s two-run homer was a highlight for the Rays, showcasing the team’s offensive potential.

Team Morale and Strategy

• Building Momentum: The Cardinals aim to capitalize on their series-opening win to build momentum and improve their standing in the league. Fedde’s performance will be pivotal in maintaining this momentum.
• Adapting to Changes: The recent trades have brought new players into the fold, and the Cardinals must adapt quickly to integrate these players into their strategy.

Tampa Bay Rays: A Formidable Opponent

Taj Bradley’s Recent Form

• Impressive Record: Bradley, the American League Pitcher of the Month for July, boasts a 6-5 record with a 2.71 ERA. He delivered a stellar performance last month, with a 1.45 ERA in five starts.
• Challenges Ahead: In his latest outing, Bradley allowed four runs on four hits, including two homers, in a 6-2 loss to the Miami Marlins. This game against the Cardinals marks his first career outing against them, presenting a new challenge.

Player Movements and Trade Deadline Impact

• Dylan Carlson’s Transition: Traded from the Cardinals to the Rays, Carlson sees this as a fresh start for his career. After a slow start to the season with the Cardinals, Carlson quickly made an impact with the Rays by hitting his first homer of the season in his second game.
• Pete Fairbanks’ Homecoming: Rays reliever Pete Fairbanks, a St. Louis native, expressed excitement about playing at Busch Stadium, a venue where he has played during his high school and college days.

Analyzing the Matchup

Pitching Duel

• Fedde vs. Bradley: The game sets up a compelling pitching duel between Fedde and Bradley. Fedde aims to rebound from his initial struggles, while Bradley seeks to continue his impressive form. Both pitchers have unique challenges and opportunities that will shape the game’s outcome.

Strategic Considerations

• Adapting to Player Changes: The trades and roster changes leading up to the trade deadline will significantly influence team dynamics and strategies. The Cardinals and Rays must quickly integrate new players to optimize their performance.
• Key Performances: The performances of key players, such as Carlson and Fairbanks, will be crucial in determining the game’s outcome. Each player’s ability to adapt to their new team and contribute effectively will be closely watched.

Conclusion

As Erick Fedde takes the mound for his home debut with the St. Louis Cardinals, all eyes will be on his ability to overcome the challenges of his previous start and deliver a strong performance against the Tampa Bay Rays. This matchup not only tests Fedde’s resilience but also highlights the broader implications of recent trades and player dynamics. With both teams eager to secure a win, the game promises to be an exciting and strategic battle that showcases the intricacies of Major League Baseball.

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