St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds Picks and Predictions September 11th 2024

Lance Lynn set to rejoin Cardinals to face Reds

At 7:45 PM ET, the Reds and Cardinals face off in an NL Central matchup. This one is being played at Busch Stadium in St. Louis, and the Cardinals are favored on the money line (-136). The Reds have a money line odds of +114, and they are 71-75 this season, while the Cardinals are 72-72.

Brandon Williamson is starting for the Reds, while the Cardinals are going with Lance Lynn. Cincinnati is currently on a three-game winning streak, and they are 4th in the NL Central, while the Cardinals have dropped two straight and are 3rd in the division.

Cincinnati vs. St. Louis Key Information

• Teams: Reds at Cardinals
• Where: Busch Stadium St. Louis
• Date: Wednesday, September 11th
• Betting Odds STL -136 | CIN +114 O/U 8.5

The Reds Can Win If…

Brandon Williamson will be making his 3rd appearance of the season for the Reds and his first start since his season debut. He started his season with a no-decision against the Brewers, where he went just 3 1/3 innings and struck out 5. His last outing was out of the bullpen, where he went 4 2/3 innings and gave up 1 run on 1 hit.

Elly De La Cruz comes into the game as the Reds’ top home run hitter this season, but he is just 3/17 in his last five games, including one home run. Overall, he is batting .260 with 65 RBIs. Spencer Steer leads the team in RBIs, but he is batting just .231 for the season. He also has 19 homers.

As a team, the Reds are averaging 4.4 runs per game, which is 15th in the league. They are also 13th in home runs and have the 18th best team batting average in the league. Currently, they have three players on a hitting streak, with Ty France and Jake Fraley each having four-game streaks.

• The Reds are 7-3 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Reds are 3-2 vs. the run line.
• Cincinnati has an over/under record of 3-7 in their last ten games.
• The Reds have an average of 2.2 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Reds are 5-5
• Looking back across the Reds last five games as the favorite, they are 2-3
• Cincinnati has gone 3-0 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Reds have averaged 4.0 runs per game on offense

The Cardinals Can Win If…

Lance Lynn will be looking to build off his last outing, where he gave up just one earned run in five innings of work. In that start vs. the Rangers, he only gave up three hits and issued three walks. Looking at his overall numbers, Lynn has a record of 6-4 and an ERA of 4.06. For the season, he has made 21 starts, and opponents are batting .243 off the right-hander. Lynn has made 11 starts at home, going 5-0 with a 3.79 ERA. On the road, his record is 1-4 with a 6.17 ERA.

Paul Goldschmidt has been swinging a hot bat of late for the Cardinals, going 12/36 in his last nine games with one home run and three RBIs. Overall, he is batting .246 for the season, which is 8th on the team. Goldschmidt and Alec Burleson are tied for the team lead with 21 homers, and Burleson’s 73 RBIs are the best on the team.

St. Louis has two players in the top five in home runs, but both of them are batting below .210 for the season. As a team, they are 24th in scoring at 4.1 runs per game. Overall, they are batting .247, which is 9th in the league.

• The Cardinals are 5-5 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Cardinals are 1-4 vs. the run line.
• St. Louis has an over/under record of 6-3-1 in their last ten games.
• The Cardinals have an average of 2.0 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Cardinals are 6-4
• Looking back across the Cardinals last five games as the favorite, they are 1-4
• St. Louis has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Cardinals have averaged 4.7 runs per game on offense

The Lean

Today’s game between the Reds and Cardinals has the 4th highest combined runs projection and 2nd highest hits projection. For an over/under pick, our lean is on the over. As for who is going to take this one straight-up, we have our lean on the Reds to pick up the win. Looking at today’s starters, Brandon Williamson doesn’t figure to work very deep into the game, but he has the lowest hits and earned runs allowed projections among today’s starters. Lance Lynn has the 11th highest strikeout projection.

St. Louis Cardinals pitcher Lance Lynn is poised to make his much-anticipated return to the mound after recovering from a knee injury. Lynn will come off the 15-day injured list and start Wednesday night when the Cardinals (72-72) host the Cincinnati Reds (71-75) in a crucial three-game series. The Cardinals are hoping Lynn can help them bounce back after a 3-0 loss in the series opener on Tuesday.

Lynn’s Road to Recovery and Impact on the Cardinals

Lance Lynn’s return couldn’t come at a more critical time for the Cardinals. The veteran right-hander, who has been dealing with a knee issue, has been eager to get back into action.

Lynn’s rehab stint in Triple-A Memphis on September 1 was more about regaining form than results. In 3 2/3 innings, he allowed five runs on seven hits while striking out eight. Despite the rough outing, Lynn emphasized that his velocity and pitch count were on target, treating the start more like a spring training tune-up.

Before his stint on the injured list, Lynn had been solid in his last three starts, allowing just three runs over 16 innings. His consistency, paired with a career 13-5 record and 3.05 ERA against the Reds, makes him a crucial factor for the Cardinals as they push to stay in the playoff hunt.

Cardinals Leaning on Lynn’s Dominance Over the Reds

Lynn has been particularly effective against Cincinnati this season. In two starts, he’s gone 1-0 with a stingy 0.75 ERA, allowing just one earned run across 12 innings. Historically, he has been a thorn in the Reds’ side, holding them to a 3.05 ERA in 24 career appearances, including 21 starts.

With the Cardinals sitting at .500 and vying for a postseason spot, they need Lynn to be at his best. His ability to stymie the Reds’ lineup could turn the tide in the series after the Cardinals’ offense struggled to get going in the opener.

Reds Battle Through Pitching Injuries and Momentum

Meanwhile, the Cincinnati Reds are entering this matchup on a hot streak, having won seven of their last nine games. Despite significant injuries to their pitching staff, the Reds have managed to record back-to-back shutouts, including Tuesday’s 3-0 win over the Cardinals.

Cincinnati is currently navigating a grueling stretch of 12 games in 12 days, and their starting rotation is hampered by injuries to key players like Nick Lodolo (finger), Hunter Greene (elbow), and Andrew Abbott (shoulder), all of whom are on the 15-day injured list.

Even with these challenges, the Reds have thrived thanks to strong pitching performances. Reds manager David Bell praised his staff’s efforts, especially after recording two consecutive shutouts.

Brandon Williamson: The Reds’ Starter for Game 2

On the mound for the Reds will be left-hander Brandon Williamson (0-0, 2.25 ERA), who is making his second start since returning from a shoulder injury. Williamson has had a limited role this season, but his recent outings show promise. In his last appearance, Williamson pitched 4 2/3 innings of one-run relief against the New York Mets.

He also faced the Cardinals twice last season, posting a 1-0 record with a 4.35 ERA. As he works to build up innings following his injury, the Reds will need him to be sharp against a Cardinals lineup hungry for a win.

Key Players and Team Developments

• Jonathan India’s Return: The Reds got a boost with second baseman Jonathan India returning to the lineup. Though India went 0-for-3 in Tuesday’s game, he drew two walks and scored a run, providing a spark from the leadoff spot.
• Masyn Winn and Thomas Saggese: The Cardinals, dealing with minor injuries to some of their infielders, made a roster move ahead of the series. They promoted infielder Thomas Saggese from Triple-A Memphis, and he made his MLB debut on Tuesday, going 0-for-4 while filling in at shortstop for Masyn Winn. Winn has been resting a sore elbow but expects to be back soon. “The elbow’s just been bugging me a little bit,” Winn explained. “I think the back-to-back off days are going to be good.”

What’s at Stake for Both Teams

Both the Cardinals and Reds are fighting to keep their playoff hopes alive. With their records hovering around the .500 mark, each game in this series carries significant postseason implications.

For the Cardinals, Lance Lynn’s return represents a much-needed opportunity to stabilize their pitching staff and make a final push for a wildcard spot. Lynn’s dominance against the Reds this season offers optimism that he can give his team a crucial win.

On the other side, the Reds are battling through adversity with a depleted pitching rotation, but their recent surge has kept them in contention. The emergence of players like Brandon Williamson and the resilience of the bullpen have been critical to their success during this challenging stretch.

Conclusion

Lance Lynn’s return sets the stage for a highly anticipated matchup between two teams desperately fighting for playoff survival. The Cardinals will look to their veteran pitcher to lead the way, while the Reds hope to continue their momentum despite dealing with major injuries. Wednesday’s game could play a pivotal role in determining the trajectory of both teams as they push towards the postseason.

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