St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds Picks and Predictions September 12th 2024

From Busch Stadium in St. Louis, we have the Reds and Cardinals facing off in an NL Central matchup. This one gets started at 1:15 PM ET, and it is being televised by BSOH.

The forecast for Thursday’s matchup calls for cloudy skies and temperatures in the mid to upper 60s. Sonny Gray will start for the Reds, and he is facing Jakob Junis. The Cardinals are favored on the money line, with their odds sitting at -179, while the Reds are +150. The over/under line is currently 7.5 runs.

Cincinnati vs. St. Louis Key Information

• Teams: Reds at Cardinals
• Where: Busch Stadium St. Louis
• Date: Thursday, September 12th
• Betting Odds STL -179 | CIN +150 O/U 7.5

The Reds Can Win If…

Cincinnati is sending Jakob Junis to the mound today vs. the Cardinals, and he has made 21 appearances this year, along with three starts. Junis’ record for the season is 4-0, and he has an ERA of 2.82. So far, he has made 11 appearances on the road, going 3-0 with a 3.74 ERA. The right-hander has a WHIP of .92 and is coming off an outing in which he didn’t allow a run. In that appearance vs. the Mets, he went five innings and gave up just one hit. Junis has finished with a no-decision in each of his last three outings.

Elly De La Cruz comes into the game as the Reds’ top home run hitter, but he has struggled of late, going just 3/25 in his last seven games. Overall, he is batting .259 with 23 homers and 65 RBIs. Leading the Reds in RBIs is Spencer Steer, who is 15th in the league with 86 RBIs. However, he is also batting just .231 for the season.

As a team, the Reds are averaging 4.4 runs per game, which is 15th in the league. This season, they are averaging 4.4 runs per game both at home and on the road. Overall, they are batting just .232, which is 19th in the league.

• The Reds are 7-3 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Reds are 4-1 vs. the run line.
• Cincinnati has an over/under record of 2-8 in their last ten games.
• The Reds have an average of 1.6 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Reds are 4-6
• Looking back across the Reds last five games as the favorite, they are 2-3
• Cincinnati has gone 2-1 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Reds have averaged 3.0 runs per game on offense

The Cardinals Can Win If…

Sonny Gray will be looking to build off his last outing, where he gave up just one earned run in seven innings of work. In that outing vs. the Brewers, he finished with a no-decision. Looking back further, Gray had a rough outing vs. the Twins on August 24th, where he gave up five earned runs in six innings of work. He took the loss in that outing. Gray’s ERA for the season is 3.84, along with a record of 12-9. Opponents are batting .216 vs. Gray this season. Out of his 26 starts, Gray has 12 quality starts and is averaging 10.82 strikeouts per nine innings.

Heading into today’s game, the Cardinals are 24th in the MLB in runs scored, averaging 4.1 runs per contest. Their home run total of 148 is also towards the bottom of the league rankings. As a team, the Cardinals are batting .246, which is 10th in the league, and are averaging 8 strikeouts per game.

St. Louis has two players tied for the team lead in home runs, with both Alec Burleson and Paul Goldschmidt having gone deep 21 times this season. Burleson also leads the team with 73 RBIs, while Goldschmidt is 4th on the team with 59 RBIs. Goldschmidt comes into the game on a three-game hitting streak and has gone 6/19 in his last six games. Nolan Arenado is also on a three-game hitting streak and has gone deep once in his last six games.

• The Cardinals are 6-4 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Cardinals are 1-4 vs. the run line.
• St. Louis has an over/under record of 5-4-1 in their last ten games.
• The Cardinals have an average of 1.8 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Cardinals are 6-4
• Looking back across the Cardinals last five games as the favorite, they are 2-3
• St. Louis has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Cardinals have averaged 4.7 runs per game on offense

St. Louis Cardinals pitcher Sonny Gray will get another chance to secure his first win against his former team, the Cincinnati Reds, as the two teams face off in the series finale on Thursday. Gray has struggled in his outings against Cincinnati this season but is coming off two strong starts that may give him the momentum he needs to finally get over the hump.

Sonny Gray’s Struggles Against Cincinnati

Tough Outings This Season

Gray (12-9, 3.84 ERA) has had a rough time against the Reds in 2023, going winless in both of his starts against them. Across 9 1/3 innings in those two outings, he’s given up 12 runs (nine earned) on 12 hits, including three home runs. One of his most challenging outings came on August 12, when Reds’ standout Spencer Steer hit two home runs and drove in five runs off Gray, with Elly De La Cruz also homering. Those struggles have contributed to Gray’s winless career record against Cincinnati, as he’s 0-3 with a 5.82 ERA in three starts.

Recent Bounce Back

Despite his difficulties against the Reds, Gray has been pitching well lately. Since his August 12 loss, Gray has rebounded with two impressive starts, giving up just two runs over 13 innings combined against the San Diego Padres and Milwaukee Brewers. During that stretch, Gray struck out 11 batters and walked only one, dropping his ERA from 4.07 to 3.84.

With his recent performances, Gray hopes to carry his improved form into Thursday’s start and finally earn his first victory over the Reds.

Cardinals Look to Keep Momentum After Narrow Win

Goldschmidt Leads the Way

The Cardinals (73-72) evened the series with a 2-1 victory over Cincinnati on Wednesday, snapping the Reds’ three-game win streak. Paul Goldschmidt delivered the go-ahead RBI double in the eighth inning, driving in Michael Siani, who had singled and stolen second base.

Goldschmidt has been red-hot in September, batting .361 for the month and providing consistent offense in a lineup that has struggled at times to produce runs.

Offensive Struggles

Cardinals manager Oliver Marmol acknowledged that while the offense has struggled to break through consistently, he is encouraged by the quality of at-bats the team has been putting together.

With the series on the line, St. Louis will look to carry that momentum into Thursday’s game as they aim to finish the season on a positive note.

Reds Pitching Survives Despite Injuries

Pitching Depth Tested

The Reds (71-76) have been playing without four of their top five starting pitchers but have managed to keep games competitive. Over their past three games, Cincinnati’s pitching staff has allowed just two total runs, thanks to strong performances from Nick Martinez, Rhett Lowder, and Brandon Williamson.

Reds manager David Bell praised his pitchers for stepping up in challenging circumstances: “They’ve been doing it all year, really, especially our bullpen. But our starters have been outstanding. They’ve just done nothing but answer the challenge.”

Jakob Junis Takes the Mound

Cincinnati will turn to Jakob Junis (4-0, 2.82 ERA) for Thursday’s start. Junis, acquired at the trade deadline, has been a solid addition to the Reds’ pitching staff. He’s posted a 3.24 ERA in 11 appearances, including two starts. One of his recent outings came against the Cardinals on August 12, when he pitched 2 1/3 scoreless innings in relief. Junis has been effective in his career against St. Louis, holding a 2.48 ERA in nine appearances (five starts).

With the Reds aiming to win the series and continue developing their pitching depth for the future, Junis will play a key role in Thursday’s matchup.

What’s at Stake for Both Teams

Gray’s Quest for First Win Against Cincinnati

For Gray, this start presents another opportunity to finally secure a win against his former team. While his career numbers against Cincinnati have been less than ideal, his recent stretch of strong outings offers hope that he can turn things around in the series finale.

Cardinals’ Focus on Finishing Strong

The Cardinals made a roster move on Wednesday, optioning reliever Chris Roycroft to Triple-A Memphis and activating veteran starter Lance Lynn from the injured list. This signals the team’s intention to finish the season strong, even as they fall short of postseason contention. With their playoff hopes all but gone, the focus has shifted to building momentum for 2024.

Reds Developing for the Future

Similarly, the Reds are out of the playoff picture but remain focused on developing young players and building their pitching depth. Junis, who has shown potential since joining the team, will get another chance to prove himself as part of Cincinnati’s rotation moving forward.

The Lean

For an over/under pick, our lean is on the over, as this is projected to be the 2nd highest-scoring game of the day. As for who is going to take this one straight up, we have our lean on the Reds to pick up the win. Offensively, the Reds have the 2nd highest team hits projection, and Sonny Gray has the best innings pitched projection in the league today. On the other side, Jakob Junis has the highest strikeout projection among today’s starters.