Chi. Cubs vs Washington Nationals Picks and Predictions September 19th 2024

Chicago comes into this NL matchup vs. the Nationals looking to snap a two-game losing streak, as they are 77-75 overall. Washington, on the other hand, has lost three straight and is 4th in the NL East with a record of 68-84. The money line odds have the Cubs at -180, while the Nationals are the underdog at +150. Tonight’s over/under line is sitting at 8.5 runs, and the game will be televised on MASN.

First pitch from Wrigley Field is set for 7:40 PM ET, and the forecast for Thursday’s matchup calls for clear skies and temperatures in the mid-80s. Javier Assad is starting for the Cubs, while the Nationals are sending Patrick Corbin to the mound.

Washington vs. Chicago Key Information

• Teams: Nationals at Cubs
• Where: Wrigley Field Chicago
• Date: Thursday, September 19th
• Betting Odds CHC -180 | WSH +150 O/U 8.5

The Nationals Can Win If…

Washington is sending left-hander Patrick Corbin to the mound today vs. the Cubs. He has made 30 starts this season and has a record of 6-13 with a 5.46 ERA. Corbin’s WHIP for the season is 1.49, and he has a batting average allowed of .286. So far, he has turned in nine quality starts and is averaging 7.2 strikeouts per nine innings. In his last outing, Corbin picked up the win, going six innings and giving up just one earned run. Before that, he had given up at least two homers in three straight outings.

Washington’s offense has been one of the worst home run-hitting teams in the league this season and comes into the game averaging just 4.1 runs per game (23rd) and are 25th in team home runs. However, they do come in with a team batting average of .242, which is 12th in the league. The Nationals have been good at putting the ball in play this season, as they have the 5th fewest strikeouts in the MLB.

Luis Garcia Jr. is hitting .280 for the season and is 2nd on the team with 16 homers. CJ Abrams has also been a good power source for the Nationals, as he is tied for the team lead with 20 homers, but he is hitting just .242 for the season. Abrams is also on a four-game hitting streak. James Wood has two homers in his last nine games but is just 7/34 in that stretch.

• The Nationals are 4-6 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Nationals are 2-3 vs. the run line.
• Washington has an over/under record of 4-5-1 in their last ten games.
• The Nationals have an average of 2.0 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Nationals are 4-6
• Looking back across the Nationals last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• Washington has gone 0-3 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Nationals have averaged 3.6 runs per game on offense

The Cubs Can Win If…

Right-hander Javier Assad gets the start for the Cubs today as he faces the Nationals at home. He has made 27 starts this season and has a record of 7-5 with a 3.27 ERA. For the year, opponents are batting .242 off Assad. In his 27 starts, he has turned in six quality starts and is averaging 7.58 strikeouts per nine innings. Looking back at his last outing, Assad finished with a no-decision vs. the Rockies, giving up four earned runs in six innings of work. Before that, he had won two straight starts.

Chicago’s offense has been good on the road this season, averaging 5.1 runs per game, which is the 2nd best mark in the league. Overall, they are averaging 4.6 runs per contest, which is 12th in the league. The Cubs have been led by Ian Happ and Michael Busch in terms of home runs, as they are both tied for 1st on the team with 25 homers.

Nico Hoerner is currently on a six-game hitting streak and went 11/24 in his last six games. For the season, he is batting .270 and has gone deep five times. Seiya Suzuki has the 2nd most homers on the team (20) and is batting .278 for the season.

• The Cubs are 5-5 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Cubs are 2-3 vs. the run line.
• Chicago has an over/under record of 7-3 in their last ten games.
• The Cubs have an average of 5.2 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Cubs are 7-3
• Looking back across the Cubs last five games as the favorite, they are 2-3
• Chicago has gone 2-1 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Cubs have averaged 8.0 runs per game on offense

Cubs Battle to Keep Postseason Hopes Alive Against Nationals in Series Opener

The Chicago Cubs, on the verge of playoff elimination, are set to face the Washington Nationals in a crucial four-game series at Wrigley Field on Thursday night. With just 10 games remaining in the regular season, the Cubs (77-75) find themselves seven games behind in the race for the final National League wild-card spot. Any further slip-ups could officially end their postseason chances as early as Friday.

After a disappointing series loss to the lowly Oakland Athletics, the Cubs are in desperate need of a turnaround. Meanwhile, the Nationals (68-84), coming off a series defeat to the New York Mets, have the opportunity to play spoiler and further derail Chicago’s slim playoff hopes.

Nationals Rely on Patrick Corbin

The Nationals will turn to left-hander Patrick Corbin (6-13, 5.45 ERA) in the series opener. Despite a challenging season, Corbin has shown improvement lately, posting a 4-1 record over his last five starts, which has helped him lower his ERA from 5.92 to 5.45.

Corbin has fared well against the Cubs in his career, holding a 5-2 record with a 4.09 ERA in 12 career appearances (11 starts) against them. However, he has struggled at Wrigley Field, where his ERA rises to 5.24 in six career starts, despite a 3-1 record.

The veteran lefty is aiming to finish strong after leading the National League in losses for three consecutive seasons, with a potential fourth on the horizon in 2024. Still, Corbin remains focused on his recent improvements.
“At times, it’s been frustrating,” Corbin admitted. “You try to go out there and do your best, and things don’t go your way. I think I’ve just located a lot better (lately) and have gotten some more strikeouts, which helps.”

Cubs Lean on Javier Assad

The Cubs will counter with right-hander Javier Assad (7-5, 3.27 ERA) as they fight to keep their season alive. Assad has hit a rough patch recently, with the Cubs losing his last two starts against the New York Yankees and Colorado Rockies. In those outings, Assad allowed six runs (five earned) over 11 2/3 innings.

Despite the struggles, Assad’s most recent victory came against the Nationals on Aug. 31 in a 5-3 Cubs win, where he pitched six innings and allowed three runs. The right-hander has performed well against Washington overall, holding a 1-0 record with a 2.45 ERA in two career appearances.

Cubs Desperate for a Turnaround

The Cubs swept a three-game series against the Nationals in Washington earlier this season, with victories of 7-6, 5-3, and 14-1 in late August and early September. Since then, however, the Cubs have struggled, posting a 6-9 record and losing consecutive games on four separate occasions.

With their postseason hopes fading, Cubs shortstop Dansby Swanson acknowledged the team’s frustration but emphasized that there is still hope.
“Obviously, earlier in the year we had a different expectation,” Swanson said. “That’s just the reality of the situation right now. We’ve got 10 games left to make something happen.”

What’s at Stake?

As the Cubs stare down potential playoff elimination, they’ll need a strong showing in this series to remain in the hunt for the wild-card spot. The combination of Corbin on the mound for Washington and Assad looking to rebound from recent struggles will be key in determining the outcome of Thursday’s opener.

With 10 games to go, the Cubs are clinging to their postseason dreams, hoping to spark a late-season surge that keeps them in contention for October baseball.

The Lean

For an over/under pick, our lean is on the over, as this is projected to be the 7th highest-scoring game of today’s slate. As for a straight-up pick, we are leaning towards the Cubs to come out on top. Looking at today’s starters, Javier Assad has the 4th best odds to pick up a win, while Patrick Corbin is 15th among today’s starters in projected strikeouts.