Chi. Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates Picks and Predictions September 4th 2024

Wild-card hopes dimming, Cubs aim to bring out the bats vs. Pirates

Wednesday’s matchup between the Pirates and Cubs is set to get started at 7:40 PM ET from Wrigley Field in Chicago, IL. SN PT will be televising this game, and the Cubs are the heavy favorites on the money line, with their odds sitting at -192. The money line odds for a Pirates win are at +158, and they will be starting Domingo German.

The forecast for Wednesday’s game in Chicago calls for clear skies and temperatures in the low 80s. The over/under line is currently at 8 runs, and the Cubs will be looking to end a two-game losing streak, as they are 71-68. The Pirates have won two straight and are 65-73, putting them 5th in the NL Central.

Pittsburgh vs. Chicago Key Information

• Teams: Pirates at Cubs
• Where: Wrigley Field Chicago
• Date: Wednesday, September 4th
• Betting Odds CHC -192 | PIT +158 O/U 8

The Pirates Can Win If…

Pittsburgh is sending right-hander Domingo Germán to the mound today vs. the Cubs. He has made one start and six appearances this season and has a record of 0-0 with a 6.11 ERA. Germán’s WHIP for the season is 1.58. In his one start, he pitched six innings and didn’t give up a run. However, he has made three straight appearances out of the bullpen and has given up at least two earned runs in each outing. Germán’s ERA at home is 13.5 compared to 2.62 on the road.

So far this season, the Pirates offense is averaging 4.2 runs per game, which is 20th in the MLB. They have been a bit better at home, averaging 4.3 runs per game. Overall, they are 21st in home runs and have a team batting average of just .236. One of the few bright spots for the Pirates offense is that they have the 10th best BABIP in the league.

Over his last 10 games, Bryan Reynolds has gone 11/39 with three homers and seven RBIs. This has helped him maintain his team-leading batting average of .282. Reynolds also leads the Pirates with 77 RBIs and is 1st on the team and 15th in the league with 22 homers. Oneil Cruz is also swinging a hot bat right now, hitting .333 over his last 10 games.

• The Pirates are 4-6 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Pirates are 3-2 vs. the run line.
• Pittsburgh has an over/under record of 6-4 in their last ten games.
• The Pirates have an average of 4.4 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Pirates are 4-6
• Looking back across the Pirates last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• Pittsburgh has gone 2-1 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Pirates have averaged 3.1 runs per game on offense

The Cubs Can Win If…

Shota Imanaga gets the start for the Cubs today and will be looking to build off his last outing, where he picked up the win. In that start vs. the Nationals, he went 6 innings and gave up 3 earned runs. Looking back further, Imanaga has been pitching well, as he has made 15 quality starts and has a record of 11-3. For the season, his ERA is 3.14, along with a WHIP of 1.05. Imanaga’s strikeout per nine innings figure is 9.1, and he has only allowed 1.41 walks per nine innings. So far, he has allowed 23 homers.

So far this season, the Cubs are averaging 4.5 runs per game, which is 14th in the league. They have been a better offensive team on the road, averaging 5 runs per game, compared to just 4 runs per game at home. As a team, the Cubs are batting .240, which is 15th in the league, and their team on-base percentage of .315 is 8th in the MLB.

Chicago’s top power threat is Ian Happ, who has 23 homers this season, which is 14th in the league. Happ also leads the Cubs with 79 RBIs. Seiya Suzuki is 2nd on the team with 19 homers and is batting .275 for the season. Nico Hoerner comes into the game with a batting average of .257 and has gone deep 5 times.

• The Cubs are 7-3 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Cubs are 2-3 vs. the run line.
• Chicago has an over/under record of 7-2-1 in their last ten games.
• The Cubs have an average of 5.8 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Cubs are 8-2
• Looking back across the Cubs last five games as the favorite, they are 4-1
• Chicago has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Cubs have averaged 9.0 runs per game on offense

The Lean

For an over/under pick, our lean is on the over, as this is projected to be the 4th lowest-scoring game of the day. As for a straight-up pick, we are leaning toward the Cubs to come out on top. The Cubs have the 3rd best odds to win today, and Shota Imanaga is 5th in our projections in hits allowed among today’s starters. Domingo Germán is 8th in our projections in strikeouts.

The Chicago Cubs’ playoff aspirations are hanging by a thread after back-to-back losses to the Pittsburgh Pirates, and with their wild-card hopes dimming, the team will aim to revive their sputtering offense in the series finale on Wednesday night. Despite a recent offensive surge, Chicago’s inability to capitalize on key opportunities has left them trailing in the National League wild-card race.

Cubs’ Offense Falters After Strong Stretch

The Cubs (71-68) had been riding high, scoring an impressive 99 runs during a 10-game stretch, showcasing the potent offense that seemed capable of pushing them into postseason contention. However, their bats have gone cold in the last two games against the Pirates (65-73), with a 5-3 loss on Monday followed by a disheartening 5-0 shutout on Tuesday. These setbacks have seen the Cubs fall 4 1/2 games behind the Atlanta Braves for the final wild-card spot.

Manager Craig Counsell voiced his frustration after Tuesday’s defeat: “The first three innings, we played as good on offense as you can without scoring, unfortunately. We didn’t really create opportunities after that. We didn’t score, and that’s not good enough.”

Tuesday’s loss was particularly painful, as Chicago managed just five hits and struck out 10 times against Pirates’ rookie phenom Paul Skenes and three relievers. The Cubs’ inability to string together rallies has been a recurring issue, and they must find their groove if they hope to keep their postseason dreams alive.

Shota Imanaga Aims to Provide Stability on the Mound

To turn the tide, the Cubs will send left-hander Shota Imanaga (11-3, 3.14 ERA) to the mound on Wednesday. Imanaga has been one of Chicago’s most reliable starters this season and is bidding to win his third consecutive start. His recent performances have been solid, including a 7-6 victory over the Washington Nationals where he allowed three runs on four hits in six innings.

Imanaga has also had success against the Pirates, pitching seven scoreless innings against them earlier in the season. The Cubs will be counting on him to continue that dominance and give their offense a chance to bounce back.

Pirates Relishing Role as Spoilers

While the Cubs are fighting for their playoff lives, the Pirates have embraced the role of spoilers. They have won three of their last four games, including the first two of this series, dampening the Cubs’ wild-card hopes.

The Pirates’ offensive spark came from Jared Triolo, whose three-run homer in the seventh inning on Tuesday broke the game open. Triolo has been a thorn in Chicago’s side all season, racking up nine RBIs in the season series. With one game left in the season series, Pittsburgh is eager to play spoiler one more time.

Domingo Germán Looks for Redemption

The Pirates will counter with right-hander Domingo Germán (0-0, 6.11 ERA), who is looking to redeem himself after a pair of rough outings. Germán gave up two runs on five hits in three innings in Pittsburgh’s 10-8 loss to the Cleveland Guardians last Friday. That start came just four days after he was shelled by the Cubs, allowing eight runs on six hits in 2 2/3 innings during an 18-8 blowout. His struggles against Chicago—where he’s posted a 9.35 ERA in two career appearances—offer a potential opportunity for the Cubs to break their offensive slump.

Justin Steele’s Elbow Injury Remains a Concern

The Cubs are also dealing with an injury scare involving left-hander Justin Steele, one of their top pitchers. Steele underwent an MRI on his elbow, which returned encouraging results, but the team remains cautious. Cubs manager Craig Counsell shared that while Steele hasn’t been placed on the injured list, further evaluation is needed before determining his availability for the remainder of the season.

“We’re probably halfway through kind of getting all the information, but so far, so good,” Counsell said. “We’re not going to put him on the IL yet. It still may happen, but we’ll kind of let all the results come in, all the eyes get on it, and then see how he feels.”

The outcome of Steele’s condition could play a pivotal role in the Cubs’ rotation down the stretch, as his presence would be crucial in any playoff push.

Cubs’ Wild-Card Hopes at a Crossroads

The Cubs’ playoff chances have taken a significant hit following these recent losses, and Wednesday’s game could be pivotal in keeping their wild-card hopes alive. If their offense continues to struggle, the path to October baseball may slip further out of reach. However, with Imanaga on the mound and a chance to face a struggling Domingo Germán, the Cubs have an opportunity to spark a resurgence.

Key Questions as Cubs Face Crucial Stretch

As the Cubs enter the critical final month of the regular season, several key questions loom:

1. Can the Cubs’ offense bounce back? The team’s recent struggles at the plate must be reversed if they hope to stay in the wild-card hunt.
2. Will Imanaga continue his strong run? The left-hander has been a bright spot in the Cubs’ rotation, and his success could make or break the final game of this series.
3. Can the Cubs capitalize on Germán’s struggles? With the Pirates’ starter scuffling, this may be the Cubs’ best chance to turn things around.
4. What will happen with Justin Steele? If Steele’s elbow injury turns serious, it could be a major blow to Chicago’s playoff chances.

The Cubs are in a make-or-break moment. If they are to have any hope of clinching a wild-card spot, their bats will need to come alive, starting with Wednesday’s game against the Pirates. The team’s performance over the next few games will likely determine whether they remain in the hunt or see their season come to a premature end.

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