Chi. Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds Picks and Predictions September 28th 2024

Kyle Hendricks faces Reds in possible Cubs farewell

From Wrigley Field in Chicago, we have the Reds and Cubs facing off in an NL Central matchup. This game is getting started at 2:20 PM ET, and it is being televised by MARQ.

The Cubs are favored on the money line, with their odds sitting at -129 compared to the Reds at +110. This game will be started by Rhett Lowder for the Reds and Kyle Hendricks for the Cubs. Cincinnati is 76-84, while the Cubs are 82-78 and they are on a four-game losing streak.

Cincinnati vs. Chicago Key Information

• Teams: Reds at Cubs
• Where: Wrigley Field Chicago
• Date: Saturday, September 28th
• Betting Odds CHC -129 | CIN +110 O/U 7

The Reds Can Win If…

Rhett Lowder will be on the mound for the Reds today against the Cubs. This will be his second road start of the season, and he is coming off a win over the Pirates in his last outing. Lowder has a win, a loss, and a no-decision in his first three starts of the season.

Elly De La Cruz has been one of the Reds’ top hitters this season, as he is batting .261 and is the team’s leader in RBIs (74) and is also 2nd on the team in home runs. De La Cruz has also been swinging a hot bat of late, going 6/21 in his last five games with one home run. Cincinnati’s other two leaders in home runs, Spencer Steer and Jeimer Candelario, are batting just .228 and .225, respectively, this season.

Overall, the Reds are averaging 4.4 runs per game, which is 16th in the MLB. They are also a middle-of-the-pack home run hitting team and have the league’s 15th ranked batting average. As a team, they are 24th in strikeouts and are 16th in walks. Currently, Nick Martini is on a three-game hitting streak.

• The Reds are 3-7 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Reds are 2-3 vs. the run line.
• Cincinnati has an over/under record of 4-6 in their last ten games.
• The Reds have an average of 2.0 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Reds are 4-6
• Looking back across the Reds last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• Cincinnati has gone 0-3 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Reds have averaged 3.0 runs per game on offense

The Cubs Can Win If…

Chicago is sending Kyle Hendricks to the mound today vs. the Reds, and he comes into the game with a record of 4-12 and an ERA of 6.28. This year, he has made 23 starts, and opponents are batting .289 off the right-hander. Hendricks has turned in just four quality starts this year, and his ERA at home is 5.68 compared to 8.56 on the road. In his last outing, he gave up four earned runs in 5 1/3 innings of work and took the loss. Before that, he had won two straight starts.

Over his last eight games, Nico Hoerner has been red hot for the Cubs, going 12/28 (.429) with two homers and seven runs scored. For the season, he is batting .276 with seven homers. Ian Happ and Michael Busch are tied for the team lead with 21 homers, with Happ leading the team with 86 RBIs. Busch is 6th on the team with 65 RBIs.

As a team, the Cubs are averaging 4.6 runs per game, which is 12th in the league. They have been a better offensive team on the road this season, averaging 5.1 runs per contest. Overall, they are 9th in batting average and have the league’s 9th best on-base percentage. The Cubs are also 6th in walks and have the 14th best slugging percentage in the league.

• The Cubs are 5-5 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Cubs are 2-3 vs. the run line.
• Chicago has an over/under record of 4-5-1 in their last ten games.
• The Cubs have an average of 4.8 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Cubs are 5-5
• Looking back across the Cubs last five games as the favorite, they are 4-1
• Chicago has gone 0-3 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Cubs have averaged 7.2 runs per game on offense

The Lean

Our lean in this one is to take the Cubs to win at home vs. the Reds. We also have this as the 7th highest-scoring game of the day and the 9th most hits. However, we have this as the 3rd lowest-scoring game in terms of home runs. As for today’s starters, we have Kyle Hendricks finishing with the 5th fewest strikeouts among today’s starters compared to Rhett Lowder (9th).

Right-hander Kyle Hendricks, a beloved figure in Chicago Cubs history, could be making his final appearance in a Cubs uniform on Saturday. The 33-year-old pitcher is set to take the mound against the Cincinnati Reds in what may be the closing chapter of his 11-year journey with the team. As the Cubs continue their season-ending three-game series at Wrigley Field, all eyes will be on Hendricks, the last remaining player from the 2016 World Series championship squad.

A Sentimental Farewell for a Cubs Icon

For Cubs fans, Saturday’s game against the Reds could mark a bittersweet moment. Hendricks has been a cornerstone of the team for over a decade, making all 275 of his career appearances in a Cubs uniform. With free agency looming this winter, this start may be his last for Chicago, closing a significant chapter in the franchise’s history.

Reflecting on his career at Wrigley Field, Hendricks expressed deep gratitude:

The affection is mutual, as Hendricks has become a fan favorite for his steady presence, cool demeanor, and pivotal role in the Cubs’ 2016 World Series victory. His likely departure signals the end of an era for Cubs fans who have watched him grow from a promising prospect into a seasoned veteran.

Kyle Hendricks’ Season and Career Stats Against Cincinnati

Hendricks enters Saturday’s game with a 4-12 record and a 6.28 ERA for the 2024 season, numbers that don’t quite reflect his overall contributions to the Cubs over the years. His season has been marked by ups and downs, including a loss in his last outing on Sept. 21, where he surrendered four runs on nine hits over 5 1/3 innings against the Washington Nationals.

However, Hendricks has historically fared well against the Reds. In 27 career appearances (25 starts) against Cincinnati, he holds a 9-6 record with a 4.30 ERA. This season, he’s faced them three times (one start) and has performed admirably, posting a 1-0 record with a 2.89 ERA.

While Hendricks’ future in Chicago is uncertain, a strong performance against the Reds would be a fitting way to cap off his storied career with the Cubs.

Reds Rookie Rhett Lowder Looks to Spoil the Moment

On the other side of the diamond, Cincinnati will counter with rookie right-hander Rhett Lowder, who has shown flashes of brilliance in his short MLB career. Lowder, who is 2-2 with a sparkling 1.40 ERA, is making his first career start against the Cubs. He comes into the game off a dominant outing against the Pittsburgh Pirates on Sept. 21, where he pitched five scoreless innings, allowing five hits en route to a victory.

In his five major league outings, Lowder has established himself as a reliable starter, pitching at least five innings in four of those appearances and blanking his opponent in three. Despite Cincinnati’s recent struggles, Lowder offers the Reds a chance to spoil what is sure to be an emotional day for the Cubs.

Cincinnati’s Offensive Struggles Continue

The Reds, however, are in a rough patch as they face the Cubs. They’ve lost four consecutive games, including a 1-0 shutout at the hands of the Cubs on Friday, which marked the fastest nine-inning MLB game in more than 14 years, clocking in at just 1 hour and 48 minutes.

Offensive woes have plagued Cincinnati, with the team managing just three runs over their last four games. Interim manager Freddie Benavides, who took over after the firing of David Bell, has yet to find the spark to ignite the Reds’ bats. In his first three games as manager, Cincinnati has managed just 14 hits, struggling to find any momentum.

A Glimmer of Hope: Jonathan India’s Strong Stretch

One bright spot for the Reds has been second baseman Jonathan India, who is heating up at the plate. India went 2-for-3 in Friday’s game, logging his third multi-hit performance in his last six outings. Over that stretch, he is 6-for-17 (.353), showing signs of returning to form after an inconsistent season.

Despite their offensive struggles, the Reds have had success against the Cubs in 2024, boasting a 7-4 record against their division rivals. With Lowder on the mound and India finding his groove, Cincinnati will look to end the season on a high note.

Cubs’ Jameson Taillon Shuts Down Reds in Series Opener

Friday’s series opener showcased the Cubs’ pitching dominance, with Jameson Taillon leading the way. Taillon, along with two Cubs relievers, stifled the Reds’ lineup, allowing just four hits and keeping Cincinnati off the scoreboard in a lightning-fast game. The Reds’ inability to adjust to the strong wind blowing in at Wrigley Field played a significant role in the shutout, as many of their fly balls were held up by the elements.

What’s Next for Kyle Hendricks and the Cubs?

As Kyle Hendricks prepares to take the mound in what could be his final start for the Cubs, fans will be watching with mixed emotions. His contributions to the Cubs’ success, particularly during the 2016 World Series run, have cemented his legacy in Chicago. Whether Hendricks stays with the Cubs or signs with another team in free agency, he will always be remembered as a key figure in one of the most memorable eras of Cubs baseball.

For Hendricks, the opportunity to pitch once more at Wrigley Field is special, and while his future remains uncertain, this potential farewell game will be a poignant moment for both him and Cubs fans. On the other hand, the Reds, with nothing to lose, will aim to spoil the day and continue their successful 2024 record against the Cubs.

Conclusion

Saturday’s matchup represents more than just another game on the schedule. It’s a day of reflection for Cubs fans, a possible farewell for Kyle Hendricks, and a chance for the Reds to play spoiler in an emotional contest at Wrigley Field. As Hendricks steps onto the mound, his legacy will loom large over Wrigley, making this a game to remember.

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