Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants Picks and Predictions September 25th 2024

Giants aim to continue power surge vs. Diamondbacks

At 9:40 PM ET, the Giants and Diamondbacks will face off in an NL West matchup. This one is being played at Chase Field in Phoenix, and the Diamondbacks are the heavy favorite on the money line at -226. The Giants are +189 and will send Mason Black to the mound vs. Zac Gallen for Arizona. San Francisco is 79-79, and the Diamondbacks are 87-71, but they have lost three in a row.

Wednesday’s over/under line is sitting at 8.5 runs, and the game can be seen on ESPN+. The Giants are on a five-game winning streak, and they are 4th in the NL West, while the Diamondbacks are 3rd.

San Francisco vs. Arizona Key Information

• Teams: Giants at Diamondbacks
• Where: Chase Field Phoenix
• Date: Wednesday, September 25th
• Betting Odds ARI -226 | SF +189 O/U 8.5

The Giants Can Win If…

Right-hander Mason Black gets the start for the Giants today as he faces the Diamondbacks on the road. Black has made seven starts and is coming off a game in which he didn’t allow a run. In that outing against the Royals, he went 5 2/3 innings and gave up just four hits. For the season, Black has a record of 1-4 and an ERA of 5.88. Opponents are batting .291 off Black this season. His ERA on the road is 7.9 compared to 5.54 at home. Overall, he has allowed seven homers.

Heliot Ramos has been swinging a hot bat for the Giants, going 12/40 in his last 10 games with two homers and four RBIs. Overall, he is batting .270 and is 2nd on the team with 22 home runs. Matt Chapman leads the Giants with 27 homers and 78 RBIs, but he is batting just .247 this season.

As a team, the Giants are averaging 4.3 runs per game and have been slightly better on the road this season. They are also 12th in the league in home runs and have the 15th ranked batting average in the league. San Francisco comes into the game with a team OPS of .703, which is 14th in the MLB.

• The Giants are 7-3 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Giants are 5-0 vs. the run line.
• San Francisco has an over/under record of 6-3-1 in their last ten games.
• The Giants have an average of 6.0 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Giants are 9-1
• Looking back across the Giants last five games as the favorite, they are 4-1
• San Francisco has gone 3-0 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Giants have averaged 6.1 runs per game on offense

The Diamondbacks Can Win If…

Zac Gallen will be looking to build off his last outing, where he gave up four earned runs in five innings of work. In that start vs. the Brewers, he gave up one homer. Before that outing, Gallen had picked up the win in three straight starts. One of those wins came vs. the Giants, where he didn’t give up a run in six innings of work. Gallen has a record of 13-6 this season and an ERA of 3.74. Opponents are batting .235 off the right-hander this season. For the year, he has made 27 starts, 11 of which were quality starts.

Arizona comes into the game as the league’s top-scoring offense, averaging 5.5 runs per game. They have been even better at home, putting up 5.6 runs per contest. The Diamondbacks also come into the game with the league’s best on-base percentage and OPS. As a team, they are batting .263, which is the 2nd best mark in the league.

Over his last nine games, Ketel Marte has gone 9/27 with four homers and eight RBIs. For the season, he is batting .295 with 35 homers and 93 RBIs. Eugenio Suarez has also been a big run producer for the Diamondbacks, as his 98 RBIs are the best in the league. He is also 13th in the MLB with 29 homers.

• The Diamondbacks are 5-5 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Diamondbacks are 3-2 vs. the run line.
• Arizona has an over/under record of 5-4-1 in their last ten games.
• The Diamondbacks have an average of 4.8 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Diamondbacks are 5-5
• Looking back across the Diamondbacks last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• Arizona has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Diamondbacks have averaged 5.6 runs per game on offense

The Lean

Backed by a good outing from Zac Gallen, we are leaning towards the Diamondbacks coming out on top in this one. We also have this as the 3rd highest-scoring game of the day and are leaning towards taking the over. The Diamondbacks offense has the 7th best home run projection, and Gallen is 7th among today’s starters in projected strikeouts.

The San Francisco Giants, riding high after a season-best five-game winning streak, aim to cap off their nine-game road trip with a sweep of the Arizona Diamondbacks on Wednesday night. The Giants, currently 79-79, have ignited their offense with eight home runs in the first two games of the series, dealing a heavy blow to Arizona’s postseason aspirations.

In Monday’s 6-3 victory, the Giants launched three homers, followed by a power-packed five-home run performance in Tuesday’s 11-0 rout. While San Francisco has been eliminated from playoff contention, their strong finish offers a glimpse of what could have been had this surge occurred earlier in the season.

Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks, once poised for a secure playoff berth, find themselves in a precarious position. Arizona (87-71) is clinging to third place in the National League wild-card standings, just a half-game behind the New York Mets and a mere half-game ahead of the Atlanta Braves. This final series against San Francisco could define their postseason fate.

Giants’ Late-Season Power Surge

The Giants have unleashed an offensive explosion in this series, tallying eight home runs in two games. Their power hitting has been a critical factor in their five-game win streak, which includes dominant victories over the Baltimore Orioles, Kansas City Royals, and now Arizona. The team is 7-1 on this road trip, displaying a mix of youthful energy and veteran poise.

San Francisco manager Bob Melvin praised his squad’s resilience and hinted at the importance of the current stretch for team-building. “Things happen for a reason,” Melvin said. “We’re getting a lot of younger guys ready for next year. You can lament all you want about it, but you’d rather have it happening now than not.”

Giants’ Perspective: What Could Have Been

San Francisco’s recent hot streak raises questions about missed opportunities earlier in the season. Despite being out of playoff contention, the team’s current form is showcasing their potential. Veteran pitcher Logan Webb, who pitched six shutout innings in Tuesday’s win, reflected on the importance of building chemistry for future success.

“We’re kind of having fun with this,” Webb said. “It’s building that chemistry that you’ve got to have over 162 games. Maybe during that stretch where we weren’t winning, we were getting tight and thought we had to do too much.”

This sense of freedom and team cohesion, even in games with little postseason significance, suggests the Giants are poised for a brighter future. Their ability to rally late in the season could be a springboard for success next year.

Diamondbacks in Desperation Mode

Arizona is now under immense pressure. Tuesday’s blowout loss marked their third consecutive defeat, and the team’s lackluster performance has put their postseason hopes on the line. Manager Torey Lovullo did not mince words about his team’s struggles.

“Usually I try to filter things and come up with something that’s positive, but I don’t think there was much positive that came from this game,” Lovullo said. “We’ve got to play better baseball.”

Arizona’s playoff aspirations are still alive, but their margin for error is shrinking. Outfielder Corbin Carroll emphasized the urgency of the moment: “We want to play postseason ball, and in order to do that, we’ve got to take care of business in these next four games. Got to leave it all out there.”

Key Players and Injuries

Arizona’s struggles are compounded by the recent return of key players from injury. All-Star second baseman Ketel Marte (ankle, back injuries) went 1-for-3 with a walk in his return on Tuesday, while catcher Gabriel Moreno (adductor injury) was 0-for-3. Both are vital to Arizona’s lineup, but their return to form will be essential if the Diamondbacks hope to reverse their current slide.

For San Francisco, Logan Webb was stellar in Tuesday’s game, allowing just four hits over six shutout innings. Webb’s leadership and performance down the stretch have been critical for the Giants, and he has been vocal about the team’s chemistry and future prospects.

Pitching Matchup: Zac Gallen vs. Mason Black

Wednesday’s game will feature a crucial pitching duel between Arizona ace Zac Gallen (13-6, 3.74 ERA) and Giants rookie Mason Black (1-4, 5.88 ERA). Gallen has been in top form, winning his last four decisions and delivering a no-hit performance through six innings against San Francisco on September 4. However, Gallen’s history against the Giants is mixed. Earlier this season, on April 20, he gave up five runs on nine hits in a 7-3 loss.

Gallen holds a career record of 5-5 with a 4.12 ERA in 15 starts against the Giants. He’ll be looking to replicate his earlier dominance as Arizona fights to stay in the playoff race. The Diamondbacks desperately need a vintage performance from their ace to halt their losing streak and keep their postseason hopes alive.

For San Francisco, rookie Mason Black will take the mound after earning his first major league win in his last outing. Black has struggled with home runs in his early starts, allowing a homer in each of his first seven appearances. However, he kept the ball in the park during his last game, where he delivered 5 2/3 shutout innings against the Kansas City Royals in a 2-1 victory.

Black, facing the Diamondbacks for the first time, could be a wildcard in this critical matchup. His unfamiliarity with Arizona’s lineup might give him an edge, as the Giants look to complete a series sweep.

Game Narrative: Two Teams, Different Stakes

As the Giants continue their strong finish to the season, they are playing loose and confident, with an eye on building for the future. Meanwhile, Arizona’s playoff hopes are hanging by a thread. The pressure is immense for the Diamondbacks to avoid a sweep, and their performance in this final game will be critical for their postseason push.

For San Francisco, this game is an opportunity to close out their road trip in dominant fashion and carry momentum into the offseason. For Arizona, it’s a must-win to keep their postseason dreams alive.

Conclusion: High Stakes for Arizona, Momentum for San Francisco

Wednesday night’s game in Phoenix will be pivotal for both teams. While the Giants play with nothing to lose, their recent power surge and strong team chemistry make them a dangerous opponent. The Diamondbacks, on the other hand, are fighting for their playoff lives, and their hopes rest on the arm of Zac Gallen and the ability of their lineup to regain its form.

Will the Giants complete the sweep and send Arizona into a deeper tailspin? Or can the Diamondbacks rally behind Gallen and keep their playoff chances alive?

Key Takeaway: The final game of this series represents a high-stakes battle between a surging Giants team and a desperate Diamondbacks squad. The outcome could determine whether Arizona continues its postseason push or falters under the pressure.