Arizona Diamondbacks vs Ny Mets Mets Picks and Predictions August 29th 2024

First pitch for Thursday’s matchup between the Mets and Diamondbacks is set for 3:40 PM ET from Chase Field in Phoenix. The Mets are 69-64 this season, and they are 3rd in the NL East, while the Diamondbacks are 76-57 and 2nd in the NL West.

David Peterson is starting for the Mets, while the Diamondbacks are sending Ryne Nelson to the mound. New York is currently favored on the money line, and the over/under line is sitting at 8.5 runs.

New York vs. Arizona Key Information

Left-hander David Peterson gets the start for the Mets today as he faces the Diamondbacks on the road. He has made 15 starts this year and has a record of 8-1 with a 2.85 ERA. Peterson’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.32. In his last outing, he went 7 1/3 innings, giving up just one earned run and picking up the win. Looking back over his last four starts, Peterson has given up a total of three earned runs. Opponents are batting .230 this year off Peterson, and he has turned in eight quality starts.

Francisco Lindor comes into the game on a nice little hitting streak, and he has been swinging the bat well over his last six games, going 9/27 with two homers and five RBIs. For the season, he is batting .270 with 27 homers and 78 RBIs, which is the best mark on the team. Pete Alonso is also a power threat in the lineup, as he is batting .244 with 28 homers.

As a team, the Mets are averaging 4.8 runs per game and have been even better on the road, averaging 5 runs per contest. Overall, they are 5th in home runs and have the 7th best team batting average in the league. Their team OPS of .739 is 10th in the MLB.

Ryne Nelson has made 22 starts for the Diamondbacks this season and is coming off a solid outing against the Red Sox, where he picked up the win. In that outing, he went six innings, giving up just two earned runs, and he had seven strikeouts. Nelson’s record for the season is 9-6, and his ERA is 4.29. Looking at his numbers, Nelson has a WHIP of 1.28 and has issued just 2.08 walks per nine innings compared to 7.48 strikeouts. Overall, he has allowed 13 homers this season. One area of concern for Nelson is his home ERA, which is 6.51 compared to 3.97 on the road.

Arizona comes into today’s game as the top-scoring team in the league, averaging 5.4 runs per game. This is a team that has been even better at home, putting up 5.5 runs per contest. Overall, they are 2nd in team batting average and have the league’s top on-base percentage. The Diamondbacks are also among the league leaders in slugging percentage and OPS.

Over his last eight games, Corbin Carroll has gone 9/33 (.273) with four homers and 10 RBIs. This has pushed his season average up to .298. Carroll’s four homers in his last eight games have him 2nd on the team with 30 homers. Heading into today’s game, Jake McCarthy is on a three-game hitting streak, while Carroll is on a seven-game streak.

For an over/under pick, our lean would be on the over, as this is our highest projected scoring game of the day. As for who is going to take this one straight up, we have our lean on the Mets to pick up the win. New York comes into this one with the best home run projection in the league, and David Peterson has the 2nd best innings pitched projection among today’s starters. On the other side, Ryne Nelson has the highest earned run average projection among today’s starters.

Corbin Carroll, D-backs Chase Encore vs. Mets

Corbin Carroll, who struggled for much of the first half of the season, has rediscovered his power stroke at a crucial time for the Arizona Diamondbacks. The New York Mets, however, are not too thrilled with the timing of Carroll’s resurgence.

In the first two games of a three-game series against the Mets, Carroll has launched three home runs, including a go-ahead grand slam in the eighth inning on Wednesday that propelled the Diamondbacks to an 8-5 victory. The series concludes Thursday afternoon in Phoenix.

Carroll, who had just two homers entering July after winning the National League Rookie of the Year last season, has caught fire with the long ball. Since July 7, he has hit 15 home runs, with one of the most significant coming off Mets closer Edwin Diaz on Wednesday.

“Base hit at least puts us ahead so I’m not trying to do too much and taking the biggest swing in the world,” Carroll said of his approach. “But I happened to catch a pitch toward the middle of the plate and it went out.”

Carroll’s Early Struggles and Recent Revival

Last season, Carroll was a major force in his first full major league campaign, earning an All-Star nod while batting .285 with 25 homers, a league-leading 10 triples, 30 doubles, 76 RBIs, and 54 stolen bases. He finished fifth in NL MVP balloting.

However, Carroll started this season poorly, struggling to get his batting average over .200 until June 9. Despite his recent success, his average still sits at just .225. Arizona manager Torey Lovullo praised Carroll for maintaining his composure during the tough times:

“It was a matter of time before he figured it out,” Lovullo said after the Wednesday win. “It was a little bit of a struggle that went to a little bit of loss of confidence. But he’s really come out the other end because of his hard work and determination.”

Arizona has been on a tear, winning seven of its past eight games and 25 of its last 32. The Diamondbacks currently hold a one-game lead over the San Diego Padres for the NL’s top wild-card spot.

Mets’ Struggles Continue

For the Mets, Wednesday’s blown lead was especially painful as they fell four games behind the Atlanta Braves for the NL’s final wild-card position. Edwin Diaz, who suffered his sixth blown save in 20 opportunities, expressed his frustration:

“It’s a tough loss,” Diaz said. “We had it, and we have just got to keep playing baseball.”

This marked Diaz’s second consecutive appearance in which he served up a decisive homer, following Jackson Merrill’s walk-off homer in a 3-2 loss to the San Diego Padres on Sunday. Despite the recent struggles, Mets manager Carlos Mendoza remains confident in his closer:

“He’ll get through it. Two outings obviously, but I’m not concerned,” Mendoza said. “He’ll get right back on the (mound) and he’ll be ready to go. He’s been through it before, and he’ll get through it this time again.”

Pitching Matchup: Peterson vs. Nelson

The Mets will turn to left-hander David Peterson (8-1, 2.85 ERA) on Thursday, who is aiming to win his fourth straight decision. Peterson has been stellar this month, going 3-0 with a 1.71 ERA in five outings. In his last start, he allowed one run on five hits over 7 1/3 innings to defeat the Padres.

Peterson has struggled against the Diamondbacks in his career, posting a 6.75 ERA with no decisions in four starts. Arizona’s Josh Bell (4-for-11) and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (1-for-2) have both homered off Peterson in previous matchups.

Arizona will counter with right-hander Ryne Nelson (9-6, 4.29 ERA), who has won his past four decisions. Nelson has been reliable, posting a 2.84 ERA over his last nine starts, allowing one run or fewer on four occasions. In his last outing, Nelson beat the Boston Red Sox, giving up two runs on five hits over six innings.

However, Nelson has struggled mightily against the Mets, going 0-2 with a 15.95 ERA in two career outings. Pete Alonso (3-for-5) and Jesse Winker (2-for-5) each have two homers off Nelson, while Francisco Lindor is 3-for-4 against him with two triples.