Arizona Diamondbacks vs Ny Mets Picks and Predictions August 28th 2024

Pete Alonso, Mets look to flex muscles vs. Diamondbacks

At 9:40 PM ET, the Mets and Diamondbacks face off in an NL matchup. This one is being played at Chase Field in Phoenix, and the Diamondbacks are favored on the money line (-126). The money line odds for a Mets win are sitting at +107, and the over/under line is at 8.5 runs.

Luis Severino will be starting for the Mets, while Eduardo Rodriguez goes for the Diamondbacks. Severino is 69-63, and the Mets are 3rd in the NL East, while the Diamondbacks are 2nd in the NL West with an overall record of 75-57.

New York vs. Arizona Key Information

• Teams: Mets at Diamondbacks
• Where: Chase Field Phoenix
• Date: Wednesday, August 28th
• Betting Odds ARI -126 | NYM +107 O/U 8.5

The Mets Can Win If…

Luis Severino is looking to build off his last outing, where he picked up the win vs. the Padres. In that outing, he went 5 innings and gave up just 1 earned run. Looking back further, he has won his last two outings and has pitched well at home, with a record of 5-2 and an ERA of 3.93. Overall, Severino is 9-6 with a 3.84 ERA and WHIP of 1.24. Opposing batters are hitting .228 off the right-hander this season. Severino has one complete game shutout this year.

Francisco Lindor comes into today’s game as the Mets’ top hitter this season, with a batting average of .270 and a team-leading 78 RBIs. Lindor has been even better of late, as he is on a seven-game hitting streak and has gone 12/34 in his last eight games, including three home runs. Pete Alonso has also been swinging the bat well of late, as he has a three-game hitting streak and is batting .245 for the season with a team-high 28 homers.

As a team, the Mets are 5th in home runs and are averaging 4.8 runs per game. They have been slightly better on the road this season, averaging 5 runs per contest. Overall, they are 9th in team batting average and have the 8th best on-base percentage in the league.

• The Mets are 6-4 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Mets are 4-1 vs. the run line.
• New York has an over/under record of 4-6 in their last ten games.
• The Mets have an average of 5.0 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Mets are 5-5
• Looking back across the Mets last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• New York has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Mets have averaged 4.0 runs per game on offense

The Diamondbacks Can Win If…

Eduardo Rodriguez gets the start for the Diamondbacks at home against the Mets. Rodriguez has a win in each of his first two starts, and in his last outing, he went 5 1/3 innings and struck out 5 while giving up 1 earned run on 6 hits.

Arizona comes into the game as the top-scoring team in the league, averaging 5.3 runs per game. They have been even better at home, averaging 5.4 runs per contest. As a team, they are batting .261 (2nd) and have a collective on-base percentage of .334 (2nd). The Diamondbacks also have the league’s 7th best home run total.

Christian Walker and Ketel Marte have been the team’s top power threats this season, with Marte’s 30 homers leading the team and Walker not far behind at 23. Marte also leads the team with 81 RBIs, while Walker is 3rd on the club with 71 RBIs. Over his last nine games, Corbin Carroll has gone 9/34 with three homers, and Geraldo Perdomo has gone 11/37 with two homers.

• The Diamondbacks are 6-4 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Diamondbacks are 4-1 vs. the run line.
• Arizona has an over/under record of 7-2-1 in their last ten games.
• The Diamondbacks have an average of 7.2 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Diamondbacks are 7-3
• Looking back across the Diamondbacks last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• Arizona has gone 2-1 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Diamondbacks have averaged 6.2 runs per game on offense

The Lean

Need a pick for today’s Mets and Diamondbacks matchup? We would be leaning toward the Diamondbacks picking up the win at home. We also like the over in this one, as this is projected to be the 5th highest-scoring game of today’s slate. Eduardo Rodriguez has the highest strikeout projection among today’s starters.

Pete Alonso’s potential free agency looms at the end of the season, but the New York Mets’ power-hitting first baseman is focused on making history and driving his team toward the postseason. Alonso’s latest feat—a monumental home run that ties him with his boyhood idol Mike Piazza on the franchise’s all-time home run list—underscores his significance to the Mets as they continue their crucial series against the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Alonso Ties Piazza’s Home Run Record

In Tuesday’s 8-3 victory over the Arizona Diamondbacks, Alonso launched his 220th career home run, a solo shot to right center. This blast not only secured the win but also etched Alonso’s name alongside Piazza, one of the greatest hitters in Mets history. Only Darryl Strawberry (252) and David Wright (242) stand ahead of Alonso and Piazza on the Mets’ all-time list.

“People told me after the game,” Alonso said. “Mike was a childhood hero of mine, so that’s really special. For me, he was one of those guys I looked up to growing up. That’s really special.”

Alonso’s homer was his 28th of the season, putting him just two shy of reaching 30 homers for the fifth time in his six-year career—a testament to his consistency and power.

Mets’ Playoff Push Intensifies

With just 30 games left in the regular season, the Mets are in the thick of a playoff race, trailing the Atlanta Braves by three games for the National League’s final wild-card berth. Every game counts, and Alonso’s contributions are more crucial than ever as the Mets aim to secure their second postseason appearance in his tenure.

Despite the pressure, Alonso remains upbeat and focused on the strong bonds within the clubhouse. “This team is really special. It’s such a great group,” Alonso said. “This year has been a blast. It’s just been an absolute blast. I have a really special place for all the guys in this clubhouse in my heart.”

Arizona Diamondbacks: Resilient Despite Injuries

The Diamondbacks, despite facing significant injuries, have been one of the hottest teams in baseball, winning 24 of their last 31 games. They’re in a close race with the San Diego Padres for the NL’s top wild-card spot, making this series against the Mets pivotal for both teams.

Arizona has been without key players like All-Star second baseman Ketel Marte, slugging first baseman Christian Walker, and catcher Gabriel Moreno, all sidelined by injuries. However, there’s optimism in the Diamondbacks’ camp, with Marte showing progress in his recovery and Walker taking batting practice on Tuesday. Walker could return as early as Sunday when rosters expand, providing a much-needed boost to the lineup.

Pitching Matchup: Severino vs. Rodriguez

On Wednesday, the Mets will send right-hander Luis Severino (9-6, 3.84 ERA) to the mound against Diamondbacks’ left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez (2-0, 3.94 ERA). Severino, 30, has been in excellent form recently, allowing just one run over his last 14 innings. His last start against the Diamondbacks was on May 31, where he allowed four earned runs over 5 1/3 innings.

Rodriguez, making his fourth start of the season after dealing with lat and shoulder injuries, has a strong track record against the Mets, with a 1.46 ERA in two career starts. He was originally scheduled to start on Tuesday but was pushed back a day, setting up a critical matchup for both teams.

Mets’ Focus and Diamondbacks’ Resilience

As the Mets continue their push for the playoffs, Pete Alonso’s leadership and power at the plate will be vital. His historic home run ties him with Piazza, cementing his place in Mets lore, while also providing a spark for a team determined to close the gap on the Braves.

For the Diamondbacks, maintaining their momentum despite injuries will be key as they fight to secure a wild-card spot. With the return of key players on the horizon, Arizona hopes to remain resilient as they navigate this critical stretch of the season.

Conclusion

The Mets and Diamondbacks are both in pivotal moments of their seasons, with Pete Alonso’s historic achievements and Arizona’s resilience setting the stage for a dramatic series. As the playoff race heats up, every game in this series could have significant implications for the postseason.

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