Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres Picks and Predictions September 29th 2024

First pitch for Sunday’s Padres vs. Diamondbacks matchup is set for 3:10 PM ET from Chase Field in Phoenix. San Diego is 93-68 and they have won two straight, and they are 2nd in the NL West. Arizona is 3rd in the NL West with an overall record of 88-73 and they are favored on the money line today at -182. The money line odds have the Padres at +153. The over/under line is currently at 9 runs, and the game can be seen on Bally Sports Arizona and Bally Sports San Diego.

Brandon Pfaadt is starting for the Diamondbacks, and he is facing off against a Padres team that will start Martin Perez. Perez is 10-7 with a 3.86 ERA this season. San Diego will be looking to keep pace with the Dodgers, who are 94-67.

San Diego vs. Arizona Key Information

• Teams: Padres at Diamondbacks
• Where: Chase Field Phoenix
• Date: Sunday, September 29th
• Betting Odds ARI -182 | SD +153 O/U 9

The Padres Can Win If…

Martín Pérez is looking to build off his last outing, where he faced the White Sox and picked up the win. In that September 21st start, he went 5 1/3 innings and gave up just one earned run. Looking at his overall numbers, Pérez has made 25 starts and has a record of 5-5. His ERA for the season is 4.25, along with a WHIP of 1.45. Opposing batters have a batting average of .272 off Pérez this season. The left-hander has a total of eight quality starts this year and is averaging 7.13 strikeouts per nine innings.

San Diego comes into today’s game as the league’s top hitting team, with a team batting average of .264. They are also one of the top home run hitting teams in the league, sitting 10th in the league with 190 homers. The Padres are also one of the league’s top scoring offenses, averaging 4.7 runs per game.

Manny Machado has been one of the league’s top run producers this season, as his 105 RBIs are 7th best in the league and the best mark in the league. He has also gone deep 29 times, which is the best mark on the team and 14th best in the MLB. Jurickson Profar and Jackson Merrill are also near the top of the Padres home run leaderboard, as they have both gone deep 24 times. Luis Arraez has been a solid contact hitter for the Padres, batting .314 for the season.

• The Padres are 7-3 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Padres are 4-1 vs. the run line.
• San Diego has an over/under record of 1-8-1 in their last ten games.
• The Padres have an average of 3.8 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Padres are 7-3
• Looking back across the Padres last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• San Diego has gone 2-1 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Padres have averaged 4.5 runs per game on offense

The Diamondbacks Can Win If…

Brandon Pfaadt will be looking to bounce back from a rough outing vs. the Giants, as he gets the start for the Diamondbacks today. In that outing, he took the loss, going just 2 2/3 innings and giving up four earned runs. Looking back over his last three starts, Pfaadt has allowed at least four earned runs in each outing. His record for the season is 10-10, and he has an ERA of 4.80. Pfaadt’s WHIP for the season is 1.25, and he has a total of 13 quality starts. Per nine innings, he is averaging 8.98 strikeouts compared to just 2.09 walks.

Arizona comes into the game as the top-scoring team in the league, averaging 5.4 runs per game. They have been even better at home, putting up 5.6 runs per contest. The Diamondbacks have the league’s top on-base percentage and are also among the league leaders in slugging percentage and OPS. As a team, they are batting .262, which is the 2nd best mark in the league.

Heading into the game, Ketel Marte is the team’s top hitter, with a batting average of .291 and a team-leading 35 home runs. Eugenio Suarez is right behind him in the home run department, with 29 long balls, but he is batting just .253 for the season. Over his last five games, Corbin Carroll is hitting .316, with a home run and two RBIs.

• The Diamondbacks are 5-5 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Diamondbacks are 1-4 vs. the run line.
• Arizona has an over/under record of 5-4-1 in their last ten games.
• The Diamondbacks have an average of 2.8 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Diamondbacks are 5-5
• Looking back across the Diamondbacks last five games as the favorite, they are 1-4
• Arizona has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Diamondbacks have averaged 5.6 runs per game on offense

Diamondbacks Fight for Their Playoff Lives in Season Finale Against Padres

The Arizona Diamondbacks are in for a pivotal showdown as they face the San Diego Padres on Sunday afternoon in the regular-season finale. After a stellar run as last year’s National League champions, Arizona is fighting tooth and nail to earn a postseason spot, but their recent slump has put their fate in jeopardy. The Diamondbacks (88-73) have dropped five of their last six games, including losing the first two of this series against the Padres with 5-3 and 5-0 defeats.

Diamondbacks’ Playoff Scenarios

The Diamondbacks find themselves in a “must-win” situation on Sunday, needing not only a victory but also some help from other teams to clinch a playoff berth. The NL Wild Card race has turned into a three-team battle between the Atlanta Braves, New York Mets, and Arizona, with several scenarios in play:

• A Loss Could Eliminate Arizona: If the Diamondbacks lose, and the Braves (88-71) and Mets (87-72) win, Arizona will be out of playoff contention.
• Win and Losses by Atlanta and the Mets: If Arizona wins and both Atlanta and the Mets lose on Sunday, the Diamondbacks could secure a postseason berth.
• Monday’s Doubleheader Impact: If Arizona wins, their postseason fate might still hinge on Monday’s results, as the Braves and Mets face each other in a doubleheader in Atlanta, rescheduled due to Hurricane Helene.

Arizona’s Manager Torey Lovullo stressed the importance of returning to basics, particularly for the offense, which has gone cold after leading the NL in runs earlier in the season. On Saturday, Arizona struggled to get anything going, recording only two hits—with Corbin Carroll finally breaking through in the sixth inning.

San Diego Padres’ Approach

The San Diego Padres (93-68), meanwhile, are in a far more comfortable position, having locked up the fourth overall seed in the NL playoffs. With a Wild Card round starting at home on Tuesday, Manager Mike Shildt opted to rest several regulars on Saturday, including Luis Arraez, who is chasing his third consecutive batting title and is just one hit shy of achieving his second straight 200-hit season.

Shildt hinted that Arraez would be back in the lineup for the finale, which certainly adds a layer of intrigue to this game. Arraez is hitting .314, slightly ahead of the Los Angeles Dodgers’ Shohei Ohtani (.310), who remains in contention for a batting title that could secure a Triple Crown.

Pitching Matchup: Perez vs. Pfaadt

The Padres will start veteran left-hander Martin Perez (5-5, 4.25 ERA) on Sunday. Perez has faced the Diamondbacks twice in his career—both during his time with the Texas Rangers—holding a 0-1 record with a 3.48 ERA in those appearances. This game provides Perez an opportunity to stay sharp as he prepares for the postseason.

The Diamondbacks will counter with right-hander Brandon Pfaadt (10-10, 4.80 ERA), who faces the enormous pressure of keeping Arizona’s postseason dreams alive. The 25-year-old has had mixed results against the Padres, posting an 0-2 record and a 3.81 ERA in five career starts, including two losses this season.

With everything on the line, Arizona is prepared to use their bullpen liberally, and manager Lovullo hasn’t ruled out the possibility of using ace Zac Gallen in relief if needed.

Padres’ Strategy: Resting Key Players

With their playoff spot secure, the Padres have prioritized rest for their regulars. Despite fielding a somewhat makeshift lineup on Saturday, the Padres emerged victorious, thanks in part to a strong outing from Randy Vasquez, who was called up and pitched six one-hit innings, taking a no-hitter into the fifth. The Padres scored all five runs in the ninth inning, cruising to a 5-0 win over the Diamondbacks.

Key Players to Watch

• Luis Arraez (Padres): All eyes will be on Arraez as he looks to solidify his batting title chase, particularly with Shohei Ohtani in the mix for a potential Triple Crown. One more hit would also mark his second consecutive 200-hit season.
• Corbin Carroll (Diamondbacks): Carroll broke Arizona’s hit drought on Saturday and will be crucial if the Diamondbacks are to find their offensive rhythm. His contribution at the plate is essential to their playoff hopes.

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Game Outlook

Sunday’s game is a true test of resilience for the Diamondbacks. With so much riding on the outcome, Arizona needs their offense to come alive and Pfaadt to deliver when it counts the most. Meanwhile, the Padres—while already secured in their postseason spot—will want to maintain their recent momentum and enter the playoffs on a high note.

The stakes could not be higher for Arizona, who are not just fighting the Padres but also battling time and circumstances in the broader playoff picture. As for the Padres, it’s one last game to fine-tune their machine before starting the postseason journey, where they hope to make a run for another World Series title.

The Lean

As the Diamondbacks host the Padres today, we are leaning towards the Diamondbacks picking up a win at home. We also like the over in this one, as this is projected to be the 4th highest-scoring game of the day, and this one has the 5th highest total hits projection. Arizona starter Brandon Pfaadt comes into the game with the 3rd best strikeout projection among today’s starters.