Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies Picks and Predictions August 11th 2024

From Chase Field in Phoenix, we have an NL matchup between the Phillies and Diamondbacks. First pitch for this one is set for 4:10 PM ET. The Phillies are 69-48 and they are 1st in the NL East, while the Diamondbacks are 65-53 and 3rd in the NL West.

Philadelphia is currently on a two-game losing streak, and they are the slight money line favorite today at -129. Arizona comes in with a money line odds of +109, while the over/under line is at 9 runs. Today’s starting pitching matchup is Cristopher Sanchez for the Phillies and Merrill Kelly for the Diamondbacks.

Philadelphia vs. Arizona Key Information

• Teams: Phillies at Diamondbacks
• Where: Chase Field Phoenix
• Date: Sunday, August 11th
• Betting Odds PHI -129 | ARI +109 O/U 9

Left-hander Cristopher Sánchez is getting the start for the Phillies today as he faces the Diamondbacks on the road. This year, he has made 22 starts and has a record of 8-7 with a 3.27 ERA. Sánchez’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.26. In his 22 appearances, he has one complete game shutout and 12 quality starts. Sánchez most recently faced the Dodgers, where he picked up the win, going six innings and giving up just one earned run. Before that outing, he had taken the loss in three straight starts.

So far this season, the Phillies are averaging 4.8 runs per game, which is 8th in the league. They have been even better at home, averaging 5.3 runs per game. Overall, they are 7th in home runs and have the 6th best team batting average in the league. As a team, the Phillies are also among the league leaders in on-base percentage, slugging, and OPS.

Over his last five games, Kyle Schwarber has been on fire, going 8/20 with four home runs and nine RBIs. For the season, he is hitting .259 with 27 homers. Bryce Harper and Alec Bohm are also near the top of the league in home runs, with Harper’s 26 homers being 8th in the league and Bohm’s 12 homers being 5th on the Phillies.

• The Phillies are 4-6 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Phillies are 3-2 vs. the run line.
• Philadelphia has an over/under record of 6-3-1 in their last ten games.
• The Phillies have an average of 4.8 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Phillies are 4-6
• Looking back across the Phillies last five games as the favorite, they are 2-3
• Philadelphia has gone 2-1 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Phillies have averaged 4.4 runs per game on offense

Merrill Kelly and the Diamondbacks are hosting the Phillies today. Kelly has picked up a win in each of his first two starts, and he has been very consistent, with 2 earned runs allowed in each outing. His last start was vs. the Cubs, where he went 5 innings and struck out 5.

Arizona comes into the game as the league’s top-scoring offense, averaging 5.2 runs per game. They have been even better at home, putting up 5.3 runs per game. The Diamondbacks are also one of the league’s best home run hitting teams, ranking 7th in the league. As a team, they are batting .260, which is the 3rd best mark in the MLB.

Ketel Marte has been one of the league’s top power hitters this season, as his 30 home runs are 4th best in the league. He also leads the team with 81 RBIs and is batting .299 for the season. Marte has six homers in his last nine games. Christian Walker is also a power threat in the lineup, as he has 23 homers this season.

• The Diamondbacks are 8-2 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Diamondbacks are 4-1 vs. the run line.
• Arizona has an over/under record of 6-2-2 in their last ten games.
• The Diamondbacks have an average of 6.0 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Diamondbacks are 7-3
• Looking back across the Diamondbacks last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• Arizona has gone 3-0 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Diamondbacks have averaged 5.5 runs per game on offense

The Arizona Diamondbacks are riding high on a wave of success, and things are about to get even better with right-hander Merrill Kelly set to make his much-anticipated return. After being sidelined since April 23 due to a right shoulder strain, Kelly is ready to get back on the mound this Sunday as the D-backs aim to secure another series win against the Philadelphia Phillies. With the postseason in sight, Kelly’s return couldn’t come at a better time for Arizona.

Merrill Kelly’s Comeback: Just What the D-backs Needed

Merrill Kelly is back, and the D-backs couldn’t be happier. Before his injury, Kelly was lights out, boasting a 2-0 record with a stellar 2.19 ERA over his first four starts of the season. Not only was he dominating on the mound, but he was also a workhorse, going at least five innings in each outing. That’s the kind of stability the Diamondbacks need as they look to keep their hot streak alive.

Manager Torey Lovullo is feeling good about Kelly’s return, praising the 35-year-old vet for his hard work during rehab. Kelly’s return comes at a crucial moment, as the D-backs are looking to extend their impressive run of form.

D-backs’ Hot Streak: Powered by the Long Ball

Arizona has been on fire lately, winning seven consecutive series and putting up a league-best 26-11 record since late June. What’s been driving their success? Home runs—lots of them. A whopping 36 of their 54 runs in August have come via the long ball, which is 66.7% of their runs—the highest percentage in the majors.

Saturday’s 11-1 blowout against the Phillies was a power showcase, with the D-backs launching four homers, including two from Jake McCarthy, who had his first career multi-homer game. Ketel Marte also joined the fun, smashing his 30th homer of the season. However, there’s a bit of concern about Marte, who left the game with a bruised left ankle, putting his status for Sunday in question.

What’s the Deal with Ketel Marte’s Injury?

Ketel Marte, Arizona’s All-Star second baseman and a key piece of their lineup, had to leave Saturday’s game after getting his left ankle banged up. The injury happened when Phillies’ Garrett Stubbs slid into second base, catching Marte’s leg in the process. Marte is hopeful about being back on Monday, but his availability for the series finale on Sunday is still up in the air. Manager Torey Lovullo is crossing his fingers that Marte can contribute in some way, but they’ll be keeping a close eye on him.

Phillies Struggling to Find Their Groove at the Plate

The Phillies have hit a rough patch offensively. After winning the series opener 6-4, they’ve only managed to scrape together three runs on 10 hits over the last two games. Manager Rob Thomson knows the team is struggling, pointing to poor plate discipline and the hitters’ tendency to chase pitches as major issues.

To get back on track, the Phillies will need a solid outing from left-hander Cristopher Sanchez, who’s set to start on Sunday. Sanchez has shown flashes of brilliance this season, like in his last start against the Dodgers, where he gave up just one run over six innings. But his history against the Diamondbacks has been hit-or-miss, with a 5.19 ERA in three outings. Sanchez did shut down Arizona earlier this season, tossing seven scoreless innings in a 4-1 win, but he’ll need to bring his A-game to keep Arizona’s bats quiet.

Sunday’s Pitching Matchup: A Rematch to Watch

Sunday’s game is shaping up to be a bit of a rematch from last season’s NLCS, where Merrill Kelly faced the Phillies twice, holding them to five runs over 10 2/3 innings. Kelly has generally done well against Philadelphia in his career, with a solid 2.75 ERA in three regular-season starts. His experience could be a game-changer as he looks to shut down a Phillies lineup that’s been struggling for consistency.

On the other side, Cristopher Sanchez will be looking to rebound from his mixed performances against the D-backs. While he had a strong outing against them earlier this year, his overall record suggests he could be in for a tough time if Arizona’s bats stay hot.

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Wrapping It Up: What to Expect in the Series Finale

As the Diamondbacks aim for their eighth straight series win, Merrill Kelly’s return is the icing on the cake for an already thrilling matchup. Arizona’s recent success has been driven by powerful hitting and strong pitching, and Kelly’s presence on the mound could give them the edge they need to close out the series with another win.

For the Phillies, snapping out of their offensive funk is key. Cristopher Sanchez will need to deliver a strong performance, and the lineup will need to get back to basics to keep up with Arizona’s surging offense.

With both teams having a lot on the line, Sunday’s game promises to be a nail-biter, with Merrill Kelly’s return and Ketel Marte’s potential absence as the key factors to watch.

Look for the Diamondbacks to come out on top as the Phillies come to town today, and we are also leaning towards these two teams surpassing the over/under line of 9 runs. This game features our highest projected hits total and 6th most home runs. Merrill Kelly has the highest innings pitched projection in the league today and 3rd best chance to pick up a win.