La Dodgers vs San Diego Padres Picks and Predictions October 6th 2024

From Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles, we have the Padres and Dodgers facing off in an NL West matchup. The Padres are 93-69 and their money line odds are +120, while the Dodgers are 98-64 and they are the betting favorite at -141. The over/under line is sitting at 8.5 runs.

Yu Darvish is starting for the Padres, while the Dodgers have Jack Flaherty on the mound. Los Angeles comes into the game on a five-game winning streak, while the Padres are 2nd in the NL West. FS1 will be televising Sunday’s game.

San Diego vs. Los Angeles Key Information

• Teams: Padres at Dodgers
• Where: Dodger Stadium Los Angeles
• Date: Sunday, October 6th
• Betting Odds LAD -141 | SD +120 O/U 8.5

The Padres Can Win If…

As the Padres prepare for game two of their series against the Dodgers, they find themselves needing a win to avoid falling behind 0-2. San Diego is on the road, where they went 48-33 during the regular season, compared to a 45-36 mark at home. They’ve lost two straight games as road underdogs and two straight overall as underdogs.

San Diego’s run line record for the season is 85-80, and they’ve gone 51-31 against the run line on the road. They’ve dropped two straight against the run line as favorites. The Padres’ over/under record is 84-77, and the over has hit in their last two games. Today’s 8.5-run line is higher than most of their games, as only 16.7% of their matchups had higher totals during the regular season.

Yu Darvish gets the start for the Padres today as he faces the Dodgers on the road. He has made 16 starts this year and has a record of 7-3 with a 3.31 ERA. Darvish’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.06, and opponents are batting .209 off him this year. In his last outing, Darvish went 5 1/3 innings, giving up three earned runs, and got the win. Before that, he had put together three straight scoreless outings. Darvish has been tough to beat on the road, coming in with a record of 4-0 and 2.81 ERA compared to 3-3 with a 4.34 ERA at home.

San Diego comes into today’s game as the league’s top hitting team, with a team batting average of .263. They are also 8th in the league in scoring, averaging 4.7 runs per game. The Padres have been even better on the road this season, averaging 5 runs per contest.

Manny Machado has been a big run producer for the Padres this season, as his 105 RBIs are 7th best in the league. He also leads the team with 29 homers. Luis Arraez and Jackson Merrill have also been good run producers, as they have 46 and 90 RBIs, respectively. Over his last nine games, Fernando Tatis Jr. has gone 10/33 with three homers.

• The Padres are 6-4 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Padres are 2-3 vs. the run line.
• San Diego has an over/under record of 4-6 in their last ten games.
• The Padres have an average of 4.2 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Padres are 6-4
• Looking back across the Padres last five games as the favorite, they are 4-1
• San Diego has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Padres have averaged 4.3 runs per game on offense

The Dodgers Can Win If…

Leading 1-0 in this best-of-five series against the Padres, the Dodgers aim to extend their five-game winning streak. Los Angeles finished the regular season with a 98-64 record, going 52-29 at home and 46-35 on the road. As favorites, they posted a 93-52 mark this year.

Los Angeles has a run line record of 82-81, with a 41-41 mark at home. They’ve covered the run line in their last two home games. The Dodgers’ over/under record is 91-68, and today’s 8.5-run line is below their season average of 9 runs.

Jack Flaherty is looking to bounce back from his last outing, where he finished with a no-decision vs. the Padres. In that outing, he gave up three earned runs on four hits in five innings of work. Looking back further, Flaherty has given up at least three earned runs in three of his last four starts. For the season, he has made 28 starts, and opponents have a batting average of .216 vs. Flaherty. His ERA for the season is 3.17, along with a record of 13-7. Flaherty’s WHIP for the season is 1.07.

Shohei Ohtani has been on a tear of late for the Dodgers, going 15/30 (.500) with two homers and 10 RBIs over his last seven games. Ohtani is also on a 13-game hitting streak. For the season, he is batting .310 with 54 homers and 130 RBIs, which are both good for 2nd in the league. Teoscar Hernandez has also been swinging a hot bat for the Dodgers, going 10/28 in his last seven games and is 6th in the league with 33 homers.

As a team, the Dodgers have the best OPS in the league and are also the top home run hitting team in the league. They are also 2nd in the league in team batting average and 2nd in on-base percentage. Overall, they are averaging 5.2 runs per game and have been even better on the road, averaging 5.4 runs per contest.

• The Dodgers are 8-2 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Dodgers are 4-1 vs. the run line.
• Los Angeles has an over/under record of 6-3-1 in their last ten games.
• The Dodgers have an average of 8.0 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Dodgers are 7-3
• Looking back across the Dodgers last five games as the favorite, they are 5-0
• Los Angeles has gone 3-0 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Dodgers have averaged 8.4 runs per game on offensw

After Breaking Playoff Winless Streak, Dodgers Look to Take 2-0 Lead on Padres

LOS ANGELES — The Los Angeles Dodgers are off to a promising start in the postseason, finally hoping to transform their regular-season dominance into playoff success. Following multiple postseasons filled with disappointment, the Dodgers are now in a strong position to advance in the National League Division Series (NLDS), at least for one day. Heading into Game 2 of the best-of-five series against the San Diego Padres on Sunday night, they are feeling confident after taking Game 1 in a manner reminiscent of their impressive regular season.

The Dodgers’ 7-5 victory in Game 1 on Saturday ended a six-game postseason losing streak, a result that saw them overcome an early deficit with resilience and timely plays on both sides of the ball. Shohei Ohtani, in his much-anticipated playoff debut, provided the fireworks with a three-run home run, propelling the Dodgers forward. Five Dodgers relievers then ensured the Padres could not mount a comeback, shutting them out over the final six innings.

Shohei Ohtani Shines in Postseason Debut

The big story of Game 1 was undoubtedly Shohei Ohtani’s playoff debut. The star slugger delivered when it mattered most, smashing a three-run homer in his first postseason appearance. His broken-bat single and two runs scored demonstrated his versatility and his ability to make an impact in various ways, though he did strike out twice.

Asked before the playoffs if he was nervous, Ohtani simply replied “Nope” in English—a confidence that was clearly on display. “I’ve played at this stadium the entire year and was able to really feel the intensity of the stadium,” Ohtani said after Game 1 through his interpreter, Will Ireton. “… I thought it was pretty exciting.”

The Dodgers have certainly been excited to have Ohtani, whose contributions sparked both the offense and the team spirit. His heroics were a major factor in the Dodgers overcoming a tough start to the game.

Resilience After a Rocky Start

For the Dodgers, Game 1 began in a manner that might have felt all too familiar. After getting bounced from the NLDS by the Padres in 2022 and being swept by the Arizona Diamondbacks in the same round last year, falling behind 3-0 in the first inning on Saturday gave an eerie sense of déjà vu. However, the Dodgers responded with the same relentlessness that carried them to MLB’s best regular-season record.

Down 3-0, the Dodgers rallied and took the lead for good in the fourth inning. Teoscar Hernandez’s two-run single pushed Los Angeles ahead, and they never looked back. The offense continued to press, while the bullpen was dominant, allowing no runs after the third inning.

Game 2 Pitching Matchup: Jack Flaherty vs. Yu Darvish

The Dodgers will aim to build on their Game 1 victory as they send right-hander Jack Flaherty to the mound in Game 2. Flaherty, a key trade-deadline acquisition from the Detroit Tigers, has provided solid results for Los Angeles. He finished the regular season with a combined 13-7 record and a 3.17 ERA over 28 starts, including a 6-2 mark with a 3.58 ERA after joining the Dodgers. Flaherty’s experience will be crucial as he faces the Padres for the seventh time in his career, having posted a 2-1 record with a 4.45 ERA in his previous meetings.

Opposing Flaherty is former Dodger right-hander Yu Darvish, who brings both good and bad playoff experiences to the mound. Darvish was on the losing end in Game 7 of the 2017 World Series with the Dodgers, but he has also had postseason success for the Padres, including winning Game 2 of the NLDS against the Dodgers in October 2022. Darvish is 5-5 with a stellar 2.27 ERA in 15 career starts against Los Angeles and went 1-0 with a 1.72 ERA in three starts against them this season.

Of particular interest will be Darvish’s matchups against Shohei Ohtani, his countryman, who has managed only one hit in five at-bats against him, with two strikeouts. Darvish, however, isn’t focusing solely on Ohtani. “It’s not something just specifically talking about facing Shohei. I’m facing all nine Dodgers hitters,” Darvish said. “Going into the game, I just want to keep the focus, keep the concentration at a high level, and execute my pitches.”

Padres Look to Bounce Back

The Padres will be looking to regroup and find a way to break through against a Dodgers team that seems determined to make this postseason different. They started strong in Game 1, putting up three runs in the first inning thanks to a two-run home run by Manny Machado. Later, Xander Bogaerts added two more runs with a double, giving the Padres a 5-3 lead in the third inning. However, the offense stalled, unable to add to their tally as the Dodgers’ bullpen took control.

The Padres understand they cannot afford to let the Dodgers’ bats get into a rhythm. With Yu Darvish on the mound, they will look for a strong start and hope to maintain a lead, unlike in Game 1.

Key Matchups and What to Watch

1. Shohei Ohtani vs. Yu Darvish

The matchup between these two Japanese stars will be a focal point of Game 2. Darvish has largely kept Ohtani in check during their limited meetings, but Ohtani’s spectacular Game 1 performance could mean trouble for Darvish. If Ohtani can get the better of Darvish, it may swing the momentum heavily in the Dodgers’ favor early on.

2. Jack Flaherty’s Control vs. Padres’ Aggressive Lineup

Jack Flaherty has been a steady presence for the Dodgers since his arrival, but he must be sharp against a Padres lineup capable of explosive offense. With hitters like Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., and Xander Bogaerts, Flaherty needs to avoid early mistakes, as the Padres have shown they can capitalize on miscues, just as they did in the first inning of Game 1.

3. Dodgers Bullpen vs. Padres Offense

The Dodgers’ bullpen played a key role in Game 1, shutting down the Padres over the final six innings. A similar performance will be crucial in Game 2, especially if the Padres’ power hitters come out aggressive. If Los Angeles can continue to get quality innings from its relievers, they will be in a strong position to secure a 2-0 series lead.

Game 2 Prediction and Expectations

The Dodgers enter Game 2 with momentum from their comeback win and a desire to take a commanding lead in the series. Shohei Ohtani’s Game 1 heroics set the tone, and if he can continue to deliver alongside Teoscar Hernandez and the rest of the lineup, the Dodgers will be in a strong position to withstand any challenge from the Padres. Jack Flaherty’s ability to keep San Diego’s offense quiet early on will be crucial, particularly with the Dodgers’ bullpen performing at such a high level.

The Padres, meanwhile, need to regroup quickly. With Yu Darvish on the mound, they have an experienced pitcher who knows the Dodgers well and has had past success against them. San Diego must remain aggressive but also capitalize on any scoring opportunities, as missed chances were their downfall in Game 1.

Ultimately, if the Dodgers’ bullpen replicates their Game 1 success and Shohei Ohtani continues to play an impactful role, Los Angeles appears poised to take a 2-0 lead in the series. Expect another closely fought contest, but the Dodgers’ resilience and offensive depth may once again edge out the Padres for a crucial win.

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The Lean

As the Dodgers host the Padres today, we are leaning towards the Dodgers coming out on top. We also have this as the highest projected scoring game of the day, but our lean would be on the under. Los Angeles starter Jack Flaherty has the better strikeout potential than Yu Darvish, and we have the Dodgers finishing with more home runs than the Padres.