San Francisco Giants vs St. Louis Cardinals Picks and Predictions September 28th 2024

Giants’ Tristan Beck, not Blake Snell, starts vs. Cards

At 4:05 PM ET, the Cardinals and Giants will face off in an NL matchup. This one is taking place at Oracle Park in San Francisco, and the Giants are favored on the money line (-172). The money line odds for the Cardinals are at +144, and the over/under line is currently 7 runs.

Andre Pallante is starting for the Cardinals, and he will be facing off against Blake Snell. St. Louis is 82-78 and 2nd in the NL Central, while the Giants are 79-81 and 4th in the NL West. BSMW is carrying this one on TV.

St. Louis vs. San Francisco Key Information

• Teams: Cardinals at Giants
• Where: Oracle Park San Francisco
• Date: Saturday, September 28th
• Betting Odds SF -172 | STL +144 O/U 7

The Cardinals Can Win If…

Right-hander Andre Pallante is on the mound for the Cardinals today as he gets set to face the Giants on the road. Pallante has made 19 starts this season and has a record of 8-8 with a 3.71 ERA. So far, he has turned in seven quality starts and is averaging 6.96 strikeouts per nine innings. In his last outing, Pallante went seven innings, giving up just one earned run and picking up the win. Before that, he had lost three straight starts. Pallante has been much better at home this season, coming in with a 3.17 ERA compared to 4.17 on the road.

St. Louis comes into today’s game with the 23rd ranked scoring offense in the league, averaging 4.1 runs per game. This is the same average they have put up on the road this season. As a team, the Cardinals are batting .247, which is 8th in the league, and they are also near the top of the league in terms of avoiding strikeouts.

Over the team’s last five games, Iván Herrera has gone 8/17 with two homers and four RBIs. This has pushed his season average up to .273. Nolan Arenado is also on a six-game hitting streak coming into today’s game. Alec Burleson leads the team with 21 homers, and Paul Goldschmidt isn’t far behind with 22 of his own.

• The Cardinals are 7-3 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Cardinals are 3-2 vs. the run line.
• St. Louis has an over/under record of 4-6 in their last ten games.
• The Cardinals have an average of 5.6 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Cardinals are 5-5
• Looking back across the Cardinals last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• St. Louis has gone 2-1 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Cardinals have averaged 4.6 runs per game on offense

The Giants Can Win If…

Left-hander Blake Snell gets the start for the Giants today as he faces the Cardinals at home. So far this season, he has made 20 starts and has a record of 5-3 with a 3.12 ERA. Snell has been pitching well lately, as he has picked up the win in each of his last three outings. In his most recent start, he went six innings and didn’t give up a run. Looking at his overall numbers, Snell has one shutout and 10 quality starts this year. Per nine innings, he is averaging 12.55 strikeouts and 3.81 walks.

The Giants have been a middle-of-the-pack offense this season, averaging 4.3 runs per game, which is 17th in the league. They have been a slightly better offensive team on the road, averaging 4.4 runs per game. As a team, the Giants are batting .238, which is 11th in the league, and they are also 13th in home runs.

Over his last eight games, Michael Conforto has gone 12/32 with four homers and seven RBIs. For the season, he is hitting .246 with an OBP of .327. Conforto’s hot streak has pushed his season-long OBP up to 5th on the team. Matt Chapman has been the Giants’ top power threat, as he is 15th in the league with 27 homers and also leads the team with 78 RBIs.

• The Giants are 7-3 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Giants are 3-2 vs. the run line.
• San Francisco has an over/under record of 7-2-1 in their last ten games.
• The Giants have an average of 4.8 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Giants are 8-2
• Looking back across the Giants last five games as the favorite, they are 4-1
• San Francisco has gone 2-1 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Giants have averaged 5.7 runs per game on offense

The Lean

As the Giants host the Cardinals today, we are leaning towards the Giants picking up the win at home. We are also leaning towards these teams surpassing the over/under line of 7 runs. This game is projected to have the 2nd highest combined run total and 2nd highest hits total. Blake Snell is our highest projected starting pitcher of the day in terms of strikeouts.

Blake Snell’s stint with the San Francisco Giants appears to be concluding prematurely, as the team announced that rookie Tristan Beck would take the mound against the St. Louis Cardinals in the penultimate game of the season. Initially slated to pitch, Snell—fresh off a strong second half of the season—was unexpectedly replaced, leaving fans and analysts speculating about the Giants’ future pitching plans.

Snell’s Stellar But Shortened Season

Blake Snell, the reigning National League Cy Young Award winner, joined the Giants with lofty expectations. Signed in March, Snell was intended to form a dynamic one-two punch with Logan Webb as the Giants aimed to return to postseason glory for the first time since 2021. However, Snell’s journey this season has been anything but straightforward.

After a delayed start due to missing spring training and multiple stints on the injured list, the 31-year-old left-hander struggled in the first half. His fortunes changed post-July when he regained his Cy Young form. Since his return on July 9, Snell dominated the mound, posting a 1.23 ERA over 14 starts. Despite his impressive performances, Snell’s win-loss record remained modest due to a lack of run support. Even though the Giants won 12 of those 14 games, Snell only secured five wins.

With the Giants now out of playoff contention, the decision to bench Snell for the final stretch suggests a focus on future planning, both for the team and for Snell, who could soon explore free agency.

Tristan Beck: An Opportunity to Shine

Taking over for Snell is 27-year-old Tristan Beck, a promising right-hander who will make his first start of the season. Despite being a relatively unknown quantity on the Giants’ roster, Beck has shown potential in his limited appearances this year, boasting a 1.50 ERA across six games. His 2023 season was disrupted by surgery to remove an aneurysm in his upper right arm, but his late-season return offers the Giants a glimpse into what could be a key player for their rotation in the future.

This isn’t Beck’s first chance to start at this critical juncture. Last season, Beck made his debut start in Game 161 against the Los Angeles Dodgers, where he pitched six innings of one-run ball. The Giants hope for a similar performance against the Cardinals. His prior experience against St. Louis is limited, with two relief appearances in 2022, where he gave up two runs in just over two innings.

Andre Pallante’s Rise for the Cardinals

The Cardinals, still aiming to finish the season on a high note, will send Andre Pallante to the mound. The 26-year-old right-hander has been one of the more promising young arms for St. Louis, showing marked improvement throughout the season. Pallante has been particularly impressive in his last two starts, where he allowed only one run across 14 combined innings in wins against the Pittsburgh Pirates and Cleveland Guardians.

Though Pallante has struggled historically against the Giants—holding a 6.00 ERA in five career appearances—his recent outings suggest that he’s peaking at the right time. His last start against San Francisco came in June when he allowed five runs on seven hits over 5 1/3 innings but still managed to secure a 6-5 win.

Cardinals manager Oliver Marmol has praised Pallante for his ability to adjust during games, an essential skill for a young pitcher still refining his craft. “He’s learning to make adjustments on the fly, and that’s critical for his development. It’s one thing to wait for a side session between starts to fix things, but in-game adjustments show he’s maturing.”

What This Means for Snell’s Future

As the 2023 season winds down, Blake Snell’s future with the Giants remains uncertain. Signed to a two-year contract in March, Snell has the option to opt out this winter and test free agency. Given his stellar performance in the second half of the season, Snell is likely to attract significant attention from multiple teams looking to bolster their rotation with a proven ace.

Should Snell choose to leave, he would walk away from the $30 million due to him next year, seeking a longer-term deal that could provide more financial security and potentially a new team environment. Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi has made it clear that re-signing Snell will be a priority, but also acknowledged the likelihood of the left-hander exploring the market.

“He’s been the best pitcher in baseball during the second half of the season,” Zaidi said. “We’re optimistic because Blake has expressed how much he enjoys being here, playing for Bob [Melvin], and being part of this team. But we know free agency is an option, and we’ll be at or near the front of the line if that happens.”

Giants and Cardinals: Eye on the Future

Both the Giants and Cardinals are out of postseason contention, but this matchup still serves a valuable purpose for each team. For the Giants, it’s an opportunity to evaluate young talent like Beck and make decisions on how to build for the future. With Snell potentially leaving, Beck’s performance in these final games could influence San Francisco’s offseason strategy and pitching depth.

For the Cardinals, Pallante’s development is key as they prepare for the 2024 season. Having spent much of this season in the bullpen, Pallante’s recent success in the rotation suggests he could be a full-time starter moving forward. The Cardinals are already impressed with his ability to adapt and make real-time adjustments, a skill that is crucial for long-term success in the majors.

Conclusion

As the Giants and Cardinals wrap up their seasons, the spotlight is on two pitchers with very different futures. For Snell, it’s likely the end of his tenure with the Giants, as he looks to capitalize on his excellent second half and enter free agency. For Beck, it’s the beginning of what could be a promising career, as he steps into the rotation at a pivotal moment. Both teams may be out of the playoffs, but these final games will help shape their plans for the future.

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