San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres Picks and Predictions September 14th 2024

Joe Musgrove will start for the Padres on Saturday, while the Giants are sending Mason Black to the mound. This NL West matchup has the Padres favored on the money line, with their odds sitting at -155 compared to the Giants at +131. First pitch from Oracle Park is set for 9:05 PM ET.

The over/under line is currently at 7.5 runs, and the under is paying out at -107 compared to -114 for the over. San Diego is 2nd in the NL West, while the Giants are 4th and have lost two straight.

San Diego vs. San Francisco Key Information

• Teams: Padres at Giants
• Where: Oracle Park San Francisco
• Date: Saturday, September 14th
• Betting Odds SD -155 | SF +131 O/U 7.5

The Padres Can Win If…

Joe Musgrove will be looking to bounce back from a rough outing vs. the Giants today. In that September 8th start, he took the loss, going 4 1/3 innings and giving up six earned runs. Looking back further, Musgrove had picked up the win in two straight outings before that rough start vs. the Giants. His ERA for the season is 4.54, along with a record of 5-5. Musgrove’s WHIP for the season is 1.28. Out of his 16 starts, Musgrove has seven quality starts, and his ERA at home is 5.0 compared to 6.19 on the road.

For the season, the Padres are the top-hitting team in the league, averaging 4.8 runs per game. Not only are they the league’s top-hitting team, but they also have the best team batting average in the league at .264. San Diego’s offense has been even better on the road, averaging 5.1 runs per game. Collectively, the Padres have the fewest strikeouts in the league and are 9th in slugging percentage.

Over the team’s last eight games, Luis Arraez has been on fire, going 17/36 (.472). He is also on an 11-game hitting streak. Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. have also been swinging the bat well, with Machado hitting 3 homers in his last eight games and Tatis Jr. going 9/33 (.273).

• The Padres are 6-4 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Padres are 2-3 vs. the run line.
• San Diego has an over/under record of 4-4-2 in their last ten games.
• The Padres have an average of 4.6 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Padres are 6-4
• Looking back across the Padres last five games as the favorite, they are 2-3
• San Diego has gone 2-1 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Padres have averaged 5.3 runs per game on offense

Before placing any bets, ensure you review our comprehensive MLB Betting Guide to make informed decisions.

The Giants Can Win If…

Through five starts, Mason Black has yet to pick up a win, as he is 0-3 with a 7.50 ERA. Overall, he has made six appearances and has a WHIP of 1.62. Black’s last outing came on September 6th vs. the Padres, where he took the loss, going 4 2/3 innings and giving up four earned runs on six hits. In that outing, he gave up one homer. Looking back at his last three outings, Black has given up at least one homer in each start. Opponents are batting .301 vs. Black this season.

For the season, the Giants are averaging 4.3 runs per game, which is 17th in the league. This is also where they are at in terms of home runs, as they are just 17th in the league in that category. As a team, they are batting .239, which is 15th in the league, and have the 15th best slugging percentage in the league.

Matt Chapman and Heliot Ramos have been the Giants’ top power threats this season, as Chapman leads the team with 24 homers, and Ramos is right behind him with 20. Chapman also leads the team with 73 RBIs. Over his last six games, Chapman has gone 5/22, while Ramos is just 3/24 in this stretch. Patrick Bailey is on a four-game hitting streak and has gone 6/15 in his last six games.

• The Giants are 4-6 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Giants are 3-2 vs. the run line.
• San Francisco has an over/under record of 5-5 in their last ten games.
• The Giants have an average of 4.4 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Giants are 5-5
• Looking back across the Giants last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• San Francisco has gone 0-3 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Giants have averaged 3.8 runs per game on offense

The Lean

For an over/under pick, our lean is on the over, as this is our highest projected scoring game of the day. And as for who is going to take this one straight-up, we have our lean on the Giants to pick up the win. San Francisco has the 2nd best team hits projection and 3rd best runs scored projection. Looking at today’s starters, we have Mason Black as our 2nd best strikeout pitcher in the league today compared to Joe Musgrove, who has the 8th best projection.

Fernando Tatis Jr. Powers Padres in Playoff Push Against Giants

As the San Diego Padres fight for a National League wild-card spot, Fernando Tatis Jr. is heating up at just the right time. The superstar outfielder has been on a tear lately, and he’ll look to keep that momentum going as the Padres aim for back-to-back road wins over the San Francisco Giants on Saturday night.

Tatis delivered a huge three-run homer in Friday’s 5-0 victory, bringing him closer to his third consecutive 20-home run season. With just three more homers needed, Tatis is playing a key role in the Padres’ playoff hopes.

Tatis on a Power Surge

Tatis has been on fire, and his recent performance couldn’t have come at a better time. His home run on Friday off Giants starter Logan Webb was his third consecutive game with a homer, pushing his season total to 17. Despite missing 59 games this year due to a stress fracture in his right thigh, Tatis is showing exactly why he’s one of the most electrifying players in baseball.

“I’m feeling really good right now,” Tatis said after Friday’s win. “I’m confident, and it feels like I can do anything out there.”

Before his injury, Tatis had hit 14 home runs in his first 80 games this season. Since rejoining the lineup in early September, he’s picked up right where he left off, becoming a driving force in the Padres’ offense during this critical stretch.

Padres in the Playoff Race

The Padres (83-65) are in the thick of the wild-card race, battling teams like the Arizona Diamondbacks (82-65), New York Mets (81-66), and Atlanta Braves (80-67) for a postseason spot. Every game is crucial now, and Tatis’s resurgence has been a huge boost to San Diego’s offense.

Friday’s win wasn’t just about Tatis, though. Manny Machado also got in on the action with a home run, contributing to a three-run first inning that set the tone for the Padres. As they push for the playoffs, the Padres will need more of these big contributions from their stars.

Giants Focusing on Young Talent

The San Francisco Giants (72-76) are out of playoff contention, but they’re using the remaining games to develop their young players. One of those rising talents is rookie right-hander Mason Black (0-3, 7.50 ERA), who will start on Saturday. Black is still searching for his first career win after making six appearances this season.

In his last outing against the Padres, Black showed flashes of potential, settling down after a shaky start to allow just one more run in 4 2/3 innings. He’ll be looking to build on that performance as he continues to adjust to the major leagues.

“I’m just trying to put it all together,” Black said. “I’ve had some good moments and some tough ones, but I’m learning with every start.”

Pitching Matchup: Joe Musgrove vs. Mason Black

The Padres will send Joe Musgrove (5-5, 4.54 ERA) to the mound on Saturday. Musgrove is hoping to bounce back after a rough outing against the Giants last Sunday, where he gave up six runs and three homers in a 7-6 loss. It’s been a tough season for Musgrove when facing San Francisco—he’s allowed 10 runs in 10 innings over two starts against them this year.

Musgrove’s inconsistency has been a concern for the Padres as they fight for a playoff spot. However, he’ll be looking to turn things around and give his team a solid performance on Saturday.

Tatis’s Road Back

Tatis’s journey hasn’t been without its challenges. In 2021, he led the National League with 42 home runs in just 130 games, but injuries and a suspension kept him off the field for all of 2022. After another injury scare this year, he’s worked hard to get back to full strength just in time to make a difference for the Padres’ playoff push.

His recent surge of three home runs in three games shows that he’s once again the offensive juggernaut the Padres need. If he continues to play at this level, Tatis could be the key to pushing San Diego into the postseason.

You can always refer to the current MLB Odds to stay up to date with the latest betting lines.

Key Themes:

Tatis’s Power Surge: With home runs in three consecutive games, Tatis is finding his rhythm at the perfect time. His return to form is vital for the Padres as they push for a wild-card spot.

Padres’ Playoff Push: Sitting at 83-65, the Padres are in a tight race for the wild card. Tatis’s hot bat, along with contributions from Machado and others, is helping to fuel their playoff push.

Giants’ Youth Movement: While the Giants are out of the playoff race, they’re focusing on developing young talent. Mason Black will start Saturday, still searching for his first career win but showing promise in his previous outing.

Pitching Matchup: Joe Musgrove will face Mason Black in a rematch from last week. Musgrove has struggled against the Giants this year, while Black is trying to find consistency in the majors.

Conclusion

As the San Diego Padres continue their playoff push, Fernando Tatis Jr. is leading the way with his power surge, hitting three home runs in his last three games. His bat has been a game-changer, and the Padres will be counting on him again as they face the Giants on Saturday.

For San Francisco, rookie Mason Black is hoping to build on his previous start and earn his first career win. Although the Giants are out of playoff contention, they’re focusing on developing their young players and finishing the season strong.

With Joe Musgrove looking to rebound from his struggles against San Francisco, Saturday’s game will be another crucial step in the Padres’ journey to the postseason.