Cleveland Guardians vs Houston Astros Picks and Predictions September 27th 2024

From Progressive Field in Cleveland, we have the Astros and Guardians facing off in an AL matchup. First pitch for this one is set for 7:10 PM ET. MLBN is carrying this one on TV.

The forecast for Friday’s matchup calls for cloudy skies and temperatures in the mid-70s. Ronel Blanco is starting for the Astros, and they are 1st in the AL West. The Guardians are starting Joey Cantillo and they are favored at -122 on the money line. The Astros’ money line odds are at +103. Today’s over/under line is sitting at 7.5 runs.

Houston vs. Cleveland Key Information

Ronel Blanco has been pitching well for the Astros, as he comes into the game with a record of 12-6 and an ERA of 2.88. Blanco’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.10. In his 28 starts, Blanco has one complete game shutout and 14 quality starts. His most recent outing came on September 21st, where he picked up the win, going six innings and giving up two earned runs on seven hits. Blanco finished that game with nine strikeouts. Looking back further, he has not allowed more than two earned runs in any of his last four outings.

Yordan Alvarez has been a great power threat for the Astros this season, as his 35 homers are the best on the team and 8th in the league. He also leads the team with 86 RBIs. Alvarez has also been great at getting on base, as his batting average is .308, and he has an OBP of .392. Jose Altuve is also a strong power threat, as he has 20 homers and is batting .293.

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Alex Bregman has been swinging a hot bat of late, going 7/22 with three homers over his last six games. Kyle Tucker has also been hot, going 9/20 in his last five games. Yainer Diaz has also been swinging a hot bat, going 10/26 in his last six games.

Cleveland is sending left-hander Joey Cantillo to the mound today vs. the Astros. He has made seven starts this year and has a record of 2-3 with an ERA of 4.63. Cantillo’s WHIP for the season is 1.20, and opponents are batting .218 off him this year. In his last outing, Cantillo finished with a no-decision, going 4 1/3 innings vs. the Twins. He gave up one earned run in the outing. Before that, he had won two straight starts. Cantillo’s ERA at home is 2.21 compared to 7.48 on the road.

Jose Ramirez has been on a tear for the Guardians of late, going 10/24 in his last six games with three homers and eight RBIs. For the season, he is batting .279 with 38 homers and 115 RBIs, which is 3rd in the league. Josh Naylor is also a big power threat in the lineup, as he is 2nd on the team with 31 homers and is batting .243.

Overall, the Guardians are averaging 4.4 runs per game and are 9th in the league in home runs. So far, they have been a better offensive team at home, averaging 4.7 runs per game. As a team, they are batting .238, which is 16th in the league.

Today’s Astros and Guardians matchup should be a low-scoring game, but with the line sitting at 7.5 runs, we are still leaning towards taking the over. For a money-line pick, we are leaning towards the Astros to come out on top. Houston is 10th in our league-wide hits projection and has the fewest team strikeouts. Joey Cantillo has the highest individual strikeout projection, but we still like Ronel Blanco’s chances to pick up a win.

Division Titles Secured, Astros and Guardians Aim for Strong Finish

With division titles secured, the Cleveland Guardians and Houston Astros are both focused on wrapping up the regular season on a high note before heading into the playoffs. The two teams, who could potentially meet in the postseason, begin a three-game series on Friday in Cleveland.

Cleveland (92-67) has clinched its second American League Central title in three years and earned a first-round bye. Meanwhile, Houston (86-73) secured its fourth consecutive AL West crown and will host a best-of-three wild-card series starting next Tuesday.

Guardians’ Pitching: Rookie Cantillo Gets the Start

Cleveland will turn to rookie left-hander Joey Cantillo (2-3, 4.63 ERA) to open the series. This will be Cantillo’s ninth career appearance and eighth start since debuting on July 28 against the Philadelphia Phillies. Cantillo has not faced the Astros previously.

In his last outing on Sept. 19, Cantillo did not factor into the decision in a 3-2 win over the Minnesota Twins. He allowed two runs (one earned) on three hits and three walks while striking out six across 4 1/3 innings. Before that, he won his previous two starts, allowing only one run in 12 innings.

The Guardians’ bullpen also continues to impress, as they orchestrated a bullpen game in a 5-2 victory over the Cincinnati Reds on Wednesday. Seven relievers combined to allow just one earned run on six hits while striking out eight.

Cleveland’s bullpen leads the league with a 2.59 ERA, tying the 2014 Seattle Mariners for the lowest bullpen ERA in a season since then. They also lead the league in several other pitching categories, including fewest walks and hits per inning (1.04), fewest home runs per nine innings (0.73), and second-highest strikeout percentage (26.1). Closer Emmanuel Clase, with his franchise-record 47 saves, highlights the bullpen’s dominance.

“They’ve been steady for us all year,” Cleveland manager Stephen Vogt said. “They’ve just been throwing the ball great.”

Astros’ Strong Rotation: Blanco Starts, Kikuchi Bolsters Depth

For the Astros, right-hander Ronel Blanco (12-6, 2.88 ERA) will take the mound. Blanco has been reliable recently, allowing two runs over six innings in his last start, a 10-4 victory over the Los Angeles Angels. Before that, Blanco threw 13 consecutive scoreless innings over his previous three appearances and is 3-0 with a 0.95 ERA this month.

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Blanco’s only career appearance against Cleveland came in August 2023, where he allowed two runs over four innings in a 3-2 Astros win.

Houston’s rotation was further strengthened after acquiring left-hander Yusei Kikuchi at the trade deadline from the Toronto Blue Jays. Kikuchi delivered another quality start in Wednesday’s 8-1 loss to the Seattle Mariners, allowing two unearned runs over six innings. Since joining Houston, Kikuchi has posted a 5-1 record with a 2.70 ERA and 76 strikeouts in 60 innings.

“We were in need of having someone like that who could give us innings and allow us to be in position to make a run,” Houston manager Joe Espada said of Kikuchi. “And he did just that.”

Postseason Preparations

With the Astros locked in as the No. 3 seed and Cleveland securing a first-round bye, both teams are likely to manage their pitching staffs carefully while still aiming for a strong finish to the regular season. As they head into October, both Cleveland’s dominant bullpen and Houston’s bolstered rotation will be crucial to their postseason success.