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From Progressive Field in Cleveland, we have the Astros and Guardians facing off in an American League matchup. The Astros are on a two-game winning streak and are 88-73 overall, while the Guardians have lost two straight and are 92-69.
First pitch for Sunday’s matchup is set for 3:10 PM ET. BSGL will be televising this one, and the Guardians are the heavy favorite, with their money line odds sitting at -183. The Astros are +153 on the money line. Nick Sandlin is starting for the Guardians, and the Astros are going with Ryan Gusto.
Houston vs. Cleveland Key Information
- Teams: Astros at Guardians
- Where: Progressive Field Cleveland
- Date: Sunday, September 29th
- Betting Odds CLE -183 | HOU +153 O/U 7.5
The Astros Can Win If…
The Astros will be sending Ryan Gusto to the mound today against the Guardians. He’s eager to kick off his season with a solid performance, marking his debut for the year.
Yordan Alvarez has been one of the league’s best power hitters this season, as his 35 home runs lead the Astros and are 8th in the MLB. He also comes into the game with a team-high 86 RBIs. Alvarez is batting .308 for the season, which is the 2nd best mark on the team. Alex Bregman has also been swinging the bat well of late, going 11/34 in his last nine games with three homers.
Overall, the Astros are one of the league’s top offenses, as they are 2nd in batting average and 8th in OPS. They are also one of the best teams in terms of avoiding strikeouts, but they could be more patient at the plate, as they are just 24th in walks. Houston is averaging 4.6 runs per game and have been even better at home, averaging 4.9 runs per contest.
- The Astros are 6-4 in their last ten games.
- Over their last five games, the Astros are 2-3 vs. the run line.
- Houston has an over/under record of 4-5-1 in their last ten games.
- The Astros have an average of 3.0 runs per game over their last five games.
- Across their last ten road games, the Astros are 6-4
- Looking back across the Astros last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
- Houston has gone 2-1 in their last three games as the underdog
- In their ten most recent road games, the Astros have averaged 3.5 runs per game on offense
The Guardians Can Win If…
Right-hander Nick Sandlin is getting the start for the Guardians today as he faces the Astros at home. He has made just one start this year and has come out of the bullpen 68 times. Sandlin’s record is 8-0, and he has an ERA of 3.75. This year, he has a WHIP of 1.27 and has allowed a total of 12 home runs. In his last outing, Sandlin went 1 2/3 innings out of the bullpen and didn’t give up a run. He finished with a no-decision in that outing. Sandlin has finished with a no-decision in each of his last four outings.
Jose Ramirez has been swinging a hot bat of late for the Guardians, going 13/34 in his last nine games with four homers and 11 RBIs. For the season, he is batting .279 with 39 homers and 118 RBIs. Josh Naylor is also a power threat in the lineup, as he is 12th in the league with 31 homers.
Overall, the Guardians are averaging 4.4 runs per game and are the 11th ranked home run hitting team in the league. As a team, they are batting just .238 and have the league’s worst BABIP so far this season.
- The Guardians are 5-5 in their last ten games.
- Over their last five games, the Guardians are 3-2 vs. the run line.
- Cleveland has an over/under record of 2-8 in their last ten games.
- The Guardians have an average of 3.4 runs per game over their last five games.
- Across their last ten home games, the Guardians are 5-5
- Looking back across the Guardians last five games as the favorite, they are 2-3
- Cleveland has gone 2-1 in their last three games as the underdog
- In their ten most recent road games, the Guardians have averaged 3.3 runs per game on offense
Astros Look to Sweep Guardians in Series Finale
The Houston Astros aim to finish their regular season on a high note by sweeping the Cleveland Guardians in a three-game series on Sunday afternoon. While both teams have already secured their respective division titles, Sunday’s game provides an opportunity to fine-tune their performances as they prepare for the postseason.
Guardians Preparing for Division Series
The Cleveland Guardians (92-69), winners of the American League Central, will enjoy a first-round bye into the divisional round, starting next Saturday. This gives the team a valuable opportunity to rest key players and organize their pitching staff for the next phase of their playoff journey.
“They’ve earned every bit of this,” Guardians manager Stephen Vogt said about his players earning extra rest ahead of the playoffs. “For them to be able to get five days (off) next week leading up to it… We couldn’t be more thankful for this opportunity.”
However, Cleveland will also be looking to avoid being swept at home—a rare occurrence, having only happened once during the 2024 season. The offense has struggled in this series, managing just five total runs in the first two games against Houston.
One bright spot for the Guardians has been Jose Ramirez, who matched a career-high with his 39th home run during Saturday’s 4-3 loss. Should Ramirez hit another home run on Sunday, he will join Shohei Ohtani of the Los Angeles Dodgers as the only players this season to achieve at least 40 home runs and 40 stolen bases.
“It’s just been an unbelievable year to watch,” Vogt said of Ramirez, who has also tallied 41 steals, 39 doubles, and 118 RBIs this season. “It will be fun to see what happens (Sunday).”
Astros Surging as Postseason Approaches
The Houston Astros (88-73) have shown incredible resilience this season, clinching the AL West for the fourth consecutive time. Despite a rough start to the year, which saw them sitting at 26-34 in early June, the Astros have gone 62-39 since June 18 to secure a spot in the postseason. They are set to host either the Detroit Tigers or Kansas City Royals on Tuesday in the Wild Card round.
“I never lost hope,” first-year Astros manager Joe Espada said. “I knew we were going to find ourselves in a position to come and compete and win the West.”
Kyle Tucker and rookie Zach Dezenzo had productive games on Saturday, with each contributing two hits. Dezenzo, a native of Canton, Ohio, has been impressive throughout this series, going 4-for-10 with two RBIs. Meanwhile, Tucker has been on a tear, hitting 14-for-30 over his last seven games, and could see some rest on Sunday before the postseason begins.
Pitching Matchup: Gusto to Make MLB Debut, Guardians Use Opener Strategy
The Astros are handing the ball to promising right-hander Ryan Gusto, who will make his MLB debut in a starting role. Gusto has had a standout year in Triple-A, with an 8-6 record and a 3.70 ERA over 29 appearances (26 starts), helping Triple-A Sugar Land win the Pacific Coast League title.
“I’m excited to be here,” Gusto said. “It’s a dream come true. I feel really good about my season.”
The Guardians will use right-hander Nick Sandlin (8-0, 3.75 ERA) as an opener on Sunday. Sandlin is expected to pitch for a short duration before turning the game over to regular starter Gavin Williams (3-10, 4.86 ERA) for the bulk of the innings.
Sandlin has some experience against the Astros, with 10 career relief appearances, in which he has posted a 4.15 ERA. Williams also has some familiarity with Houston, sporting a 3.60 ERA in one career start against them.
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Game Outlook
Both teams are using this final game to prepare for the playoffs. For Cleveland, it’s an opportunity to generate some offensive momentum and avoid being swept at home. Their pitching strategy will likely aim to keep everyone healthy and rested for the divisional round.
For Houston, Gusto’s major league debut offers a chance to evaluate young talent under a relatively low-pressure situation, as the team already has their postseason position locked in. The Astros will be looking to maintain their recent strong form, having won 11 of their last 16 games.
With postseason play just around the corner, both teams will be eager to close out their regular-season campaigns on a positive note. While Houston has little to lose in terms of standings, Cleveland will try to give their home crowd one more win before the playoffs begin.
The Lean
Our lean for a money-line pick in this Astros vs. Guardians matchup is to take the Astros to win. As for how we would play the over/under line, we would go with the over, as this is projected to be the 4th lowest-scoring game of the day, but we have this one finishing with the lowest combined strikeouts. Between the two starters, we have Ryan Gusto as the better strikeout option than Nick Sandlin.
