Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago Cubs Picks and Predictions August 14th 2024

Alex Cobb trying to settle into groove as Guardians take on Cubs

Wednesday’s interleague matchup between the Cubs and Guardians is set to get started at 6:40 PM ET from Progressive Field in Cleveland. The Guardians are the favorites on the money line, with their odds sitting at -134 compared to the Cubs at +113. The over/under line is currently at 8.5 runs.

Chicago comes in with a record of 59-62 and will be looking to snap a two-game losing streak, while the Guardians have won four straight and are 71-49 overall. Alex Cobb will start for Cleveland, while the Cubs are sending Jameson Taillon to the mound.

Chicago vs. Cleveland Key Information

• Teams: Cubs at Guardians
• Where: Progressive Field Cleveland
• Date: Wednesday, August 14th
• Betting Odds CLE -134 | CHC +113 O/U 8.5

The Cubs Can Win If…

Right-hander Jameson Taillon gets the start for the Cubs today as he faces the Guardians on the road. He has made 20 starts this season and has a record of 8-6 with a 3.50 ERA. Taillon’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.18. In his last outing, he picked up the win, going five innings and giving up five earned runs on four homers. Before that, he had turned in three straight solid outings, giving up just one earned run in each of those starts. Taillon has a total of 11 quality starts this season.

For the season, the Cubs are averaging 4.2 runs per game, which is 20th in the MLB. They have been a little better on the road, averaging 4.3 runs per game. As a team, the Cubs are batting .236, which is 17th in the league, and are also 17th in home runs. Chicago’s team on-base percentage is 10th in the league at .311.

Chicago’s top power hitter this season has been Ian Happ, who has 20 home runs, but he is batting just .230 for the season. Happ has been swinging a better bat of late, going 7/27 in his last seven games with three homers. Nico Hoerner and Isaac Paredes are also near the top of the Cubs’ home run leaderboard, with five and 18 homers, respectively.

• The Cubs are 6-4 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Cubs are 3-2 vs. the run line.
• Chicago has an over/under record of 6-4 in their last ten games.
• The Cubs have an average of 5.4 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Cubs are 5-5
• Looking back across the Cubs last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• Chicago has gone 2-1 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Cubs have averaged 5.2 runs per game on offense

The Guardians Can Win If…

Coming off his first start of the season, Alex Cobb and the Guardians are back at home to take on the Cubs. In his first outing, Cobb took the loss, going 4 2/3 innings and giving up 5 runs on 9 hits. He did strike out 9 batters, but also allowed 1 home run.

Jose Ramirez has been swinging a hot bat of late, going 7/20 in his last five games, and he is also on a three-game hitting streak. Overall, he is batting .282 for the season, and his 97 RBIs are the 2nd most in the league. Josh Naylor is also near the top of the MLB leaderboard in RBIs, as his 87 is 5th in the league.

As a team, the Guardians are averaging 4.6 runs per game and are 10th in the league in home runs. They have been a good home run hitting team this season, averaging 4.9 runs per game at home. Overall, they are batting .241, which is 13th in the league.

• The Guardians are 4-6 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Guardians are 2-3 vs. the run line.
• Cleveland has an over/under record of 5-3-2 in their last ten games.
• The Guardians have an average of 4.2 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Guardians are 6-4
• Looking back across the Guardians last five games as the favorite, they are 4-1
• Cleveland has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Guardians have averaged 3.2 runs per game on offense

The Lean

Our lean in this Cubs vs. Guardians matchup is to take the Cubs to win straight-up. We have this as the 2nd lowest-scoring game of the day, but with the line sitting at 8.5 runs, we are leaning towards taking the over. Alex Cobb has the 2nd best odds to pick up a win among today’s starters, but we like Jameson Taillon’s strikeout potential for the Cubs.

With his season debut behind him, right-hander Alex Cobb is now focused on helping the Cleveland Guardians extend their winning streak as they face the Chicago Cubs in a bid for a three-game series sweep on Wednesday night.

Cobb’s Debut: A Mixed Bag

Acquired from the San Francisco Giants at the trade deadline, Cobb (0-1, 7.71 ERA) made his first start of the 2024 season last Friday. The 36-year-old pitcher, who hadn’t taken the mound since September 2023 due to left hip surgery, struggled in his debut, allowing five runs (four earned) on nine hits over 4 2/3 innings in a loss to the Minnesota Twins.

Despite the rough outing, Cobb’s pitch quality showed promise. “The stuff was fine all game, it was the stuff and location combo that I was having trouble with,” Cobb reflected. “You need both of those to be sharp.” This assessment indicates that with better command, Cobb could become a reliable asset for the Guardians.

Cleveland catcher Austin Hedges remains optimistic about Cobb’s future contributions. “There were a lot of things to like,” Hedges noted. “All his pitches have such good action. He commands the ball really well. They took some good swings on some good pitches. There’s a lot to look forward to with him pitching every five days.”

Guardians’ Winning Streak Continues

The Guardians have been on a roll, winning four straight games, including the first two of their series against the Cubs. This recent success comes after a challenging seven-game losing streak, underscoring the team’s resilience and ability to bounce back.

Cleveland’s offense has been powered by rookie Jhonkensy Noel, who has emerged as a key contributor. Noel broke a 1-1 tie with a home run in the sixth inning on Tuesday, following a two-homer performance in Monday’s 9-8 victory. With nine home runs in just 32 games this season, Noel’s bat has been pivotal in the Guardians’ recent surge.

As the team looks to secure their fifth consecutive win, Cobb’s performance will be crucial. The right-hander has a solid history against the Cubs, posting a 1.50 ERA in two career starts against them, despite not recording a win.

Cubs Look to Regain Momentum

The Cubs, meanwhile, are aiming to snap their two-game losing streak after winning four straight prior to their series in Cleveland. Right-hander Jameson Taillon (8-6, 3.50 ERA) will take the mound for Chicago. Although Taillon allowed five runs on nine hits in five innings during his last start against the Chicago White Sox, he managed to secure a victory.

“I feel like it was one of those games where it wasn’t my best,” Taillon admitted. “I felt fine, but that’s just the way the game goes. … You can’t expect it to all go perfect.”

Taillon’s recent road performances have been inconsistent, with a 2-1 record but an 8.40 ERA over his past three starts away from home. His track record against the Guardians is also mixed, with a 1-2 record and a 4.71 ERA in four career starts.

Key Matchups to Watch

The game will feature several intriguing individual matchups. Cleveland outfielder Lane Thomas has had success against Taillon, homering twice off the right-hander in previous meetings. On the other hand, Guardians star third baseman Jose Ramirez has struggled against Taillon, going just 1-for-10.

For the Cubs, Nico Hoerner has been a bright spot, collecting two hits on Tuesday and batting .320 with six stolen bases over his last 12 games. Hoerner’s ability to get on base and create scoring opportunities will be crucial for Chicago as they look to avoid a sweep.

Conclusion: A Pivotal Game for Both Teams

Wednesday’s matchup presents a critical opportunity for both teams. For the Guardians, a win would not only extend their streak but also further solidify their position atop the American League Central. For the Cubs, avoiding a sweep is essential to regain momentum as they push for a playoff spot in the competitive National League Central.

All eyes will be on Alex Cobb as he takes the mound, aiming to deliver a performance that lives up to his potential and helps the Guardians continue their winning ways.

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