Cleveland Guardians vs Arizona Diamondbacks Picks and Predictions August 5th 2024

AL-leading Guardians to face test vs. surging Diamondbacks

At 6:40 PM ET, the Diamondbacks and Guardians will square off in an interleague matchup. This one is being played at Progressive Field in Cleveland, and the Guardians are the slight money line underdog (+105). The money line odds have the Diamondbacks at -123.

Arizona is 60-52 this season, while the Guardians are 67-44. Logan Allen will start for the Guardians, and he will face off against Zac Gallen for the Diamondbacks. Cleveland comes in on a two-game losing streak, while the Diamondbacks are 3rd in the NL West. The over/under line is currently 8.5 runs, and BSGL will be televising this one.

Arizona vs. Cleveland Key Information

• Teams: Diamondbacks at Guardians
• Where: Progressive Field Cleveland
• Date: Monday, August 5th
• Betting Odds ARI -123 | CLE +105 O/U 8.5

The Diamondbacks Can Win If…

Zac Gallen is getting the start for the Diamondbacks today and comes in with a record of 9-5 and an ERA of 3.56. So far, he has made 18 starts, and opponents are batting .235 this year. Gallen has pitched well recently, as he has picked up the win in three straight outings. In his most recent start, he went six innings and gave up just one earned run. Looking back over his last three outings, he has given up a total of three earned runs. Gallen has made nine quality starts this year and is averaging 8.84 strikeouts per nine innings.

Arizona’s offense has been one of the best in the league this season, averaging 5.1 runs per game, which is the 2nd best mark in the MLB. They have been even better at home, putting up 5.2 runs per contest. As a team, they are batting .258, which is the 4th best mark in the league. The Diamondbacks are also one of the best home run-hitting teams in the league, with 128 homers so far.

Over his last 10 games, Ketel Marte has been on fire, going 14/38 with six homers and 16 RBIs. This has helped him move into the team lead in batting average (.300) and RBIs (77). Marte is also on a six-game hitting streak. Christian Walker is also a power threat in the lineup, as he has 23 homers this season, which is 2nd on the team and 9th in the league.

• The Diamondbacks are 8-2 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Diamondbacks are 2-3 vs. the run line.
• Arizona has an over/under record of 8-2 in their last ten games.
• The Diamondbacks have an average of 7.8 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Diamondbacks are 7-3
• Looking back across the Diamondbacks last five games as the favorite, they are 4-1
• Arizona has gone 2-1 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Diamondbacks have averaged 5.3 runs per game on offense

The Guardians Can Win If…

Cleveland is sending Logan Allen to the mound today vs. the Diamondbacks, and he comes into the game with a record of 8-4 and an ERA of 5.67. So far, he has made 18 starts and five of them have been quality starts. Looking at his numbers, Allen has been much better at home, coming in with a record of 3-0 and an ERA of 8.33. On the road, his ERA is 7.99, and he has a record of 5-4. In his last outing, Allen finished with a no-decision, giving up two earned runs in 4 1/3 innings of work. Before that, he had given up at least three earned runs in three straight outings.

When it comes to scoring runs, the Guardians have been a top-10 offense this season, averaging 4.7 runs per game. At home, they have been even better, averaging 4.9 runs per contest. As a team, they are batting .242, which is 13th in the league, and also have the 12th most home runs in the league.

José Ramírez has been a big run producer for the Guardians this season, as his 93 RBIs are 2nd in the league. He also has a team-high 29 homers and is batting .277. Josh Naylor is also having a good season, batting .250 with 24 homers. Naylor has been hot of late, going 8/19 with two homers and seven RBIs over his last five games.

• The Guardians are 6-4 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Guardians are 3-2 vs. the run line.
• Cleveland has an over/under record of 5-5 in their last ten games.
• The Guardians have an average of 6.4 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Guardians are 5-5
• Looking back across the Guardians last five games as the favorite, they are 4-1
• Cleveland has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Guardians have averaged 2.9 runs per game on offense

The Lean

Today’s Diamondbacks and Guardians matchup should feature plenty of offense, as this is our highest projected scoring game in the league. For an over/under pick, we would be leaning towards the over. As for who is going to take this one straight up, we have the Diamondbacks taking care of business on the road. Arizona comes into this one with our highest team hits projection and highest team runs projection. Looking at the starters for this matchup, we like Zac Gallen’s strikeout potential over Logan Allen.

The Cleveland Guardians, leaders of the American League, are set to face a significant challenge against the Arizona Diamondbacks, who have been on a winning spree. As both teams look to secure a playoff spot, this game could prove crucial in shaping their postseason destinies.

Diamondbacks’ Surge After the All-Star Break

The Arizona Diamondbacks have been on a remarkable run, winning 15 of their last 20 games since the All-Star break. This surge has propelled them into serious contention for a wild-card spot, highlighting their potential as a playoff threat.

Key Players Driving Success

• Joc Pederson: A standout performer, Pederson is currently hitting .381 with four home runs and 10 RBIs over his last eight games. His ability to deliver in clutch situations, like his recent go-ahead three-run homer against the Pittsburgh Pirates, has been instrumental in the team’s success.
• Team Resilience: Arizona demonstrated their resilience by overcoming a four-run deficit to secure a 6-5 victory over Pittsburgh, clinching the three-game series. This resilience underlines their growing confidence and ability to compete against tough opponents.

Zac Gallen: The Diamondbacks’ Ace

Post All-Star Break Performance

Zac Gallen has been pivotal in Arizona’s resurgence. Since the All-Star break, Gallen has a stellar 2.12 ERA and has won all three of his starts, showcasing his ability to dominate from the mound. His recent performance against Washington, where he allowed just one run over six innings, highlights his current form.

• Historical Success Against Cleveland: Gallen has had success against the Guardians in past matchups, posting a 2-0 record with a 2.84 ERA. His last encounter against Cleveland saw him allow only one run while striking out seven over seven innings.

Challenges for the Cleveland Guardians

Recent Performance

The Cleveland Guardians have hit a rough patch, losing their last two games after previously winning five straight and eight of their last ten. Despite these setbacks, they remain a formidable team with a strong track record this season.

Jose Ramirez: The Consistent Performer

• Offensive Leader: Jose Ramirez continues to be a key player for the Guardians, batting .391 with five home runs and 11 RBIs over his last six games. His consistent performance at the plate is vital for Cleveland’s offensive success.

Pitching Concerns for Cleveland

Cleveland faces significant challenges with their pitching staff as they prepare for the Diamondbacks.

Tanner Bibee’s Injury

• Shoulder Issues: Tanner Bibee’s shoulder problems have created uncertainty in the rotation, forcing the Guardians to seek alternative solutions.

Logan Allen’s Opportunity

With Bibee sidelined and Alex Cobb not ready to make his debut, Logan Allen will step up as the starting pitcher. Allen’s recent demotion to Triple-A Columbus was tough, but he has since shown improvement, recording a 3.86 ERA and 12 strikeouts in three starts.

• Allen’s Major League Struggles: Before his demotion, Allen struggled in the majors, allowing 11 runs over his last three starts. However, this game provides an opportunity for redemption against a strong Arizona lineup.

Matchup Implications

The upcoming game holds significant implications for both teams. For the Diamondbacks, maintaining their post-All-Star break momentum is crucial as they aim to solidify their wild-card standing. Meanwhile, the Guardians are eager to bounce back from recent losses and re-establish their dominance in the American League.

Key Player Matchups

• Zac Gallen vs. Cleveland Batters: Gallen’s historical success against Cleveland and his current form make him a formidable opponent for the Guardians’ lineup. His ability to control the game from the mound will test Cleveland’s offense.
• Logan Allen vs. Arizona’s Hitters: Allen faces a tough task against a confident Diamondbacks lineup. His performance will be pivotal in determining Cleveland’s chances in the series opener.

Game Significance

This matchup is a crucial test for both teams as they navigate the final stretch of the regular season. The Diamondbacks aim to continue their winning streak, while the Guardians look to regain their form and secure their position as AL leaders.

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