Cleveland Guardians vs Tampa Bay Rays Picks and Predictions September 12th 2024

Thursday’s matchup between the Rays and Guardians is set to get started at 7:15 PM ET from Progressive Field in Cleveland. The Guardians are currently on a three-game winning streak and are 84-62 overall, while the Rays have lost three straight and are 71-75.

Cleveland is at -142 on the money line, with the Rays being the slight underdog at +121. The over/under line is currently at 8 runs, and FOX will be carrying this game on TV. Ryan Pepiot is starting for the Rays, while Gavin Williams goes for the Guardians.

Tampa Bay vs. Cleveland Key Information

• Teams: Rays at Guardians
• Where: Progressive Field Cleveland
• Date: Thursday, September 12th
• Betting Odds CLE -142 | TB +121 O/U 8

The Rays Can Win If…

Ryan Pepiot gets the start for the Rays today as he faces off against the Guardians on the road. He has made 22 starts this season and has a record of 8-6 with a 3.66 ERA. Pepiot’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.14, and he has turned in eight quality starts. In his last outing, he picked up the win, going 5 1/3 innings and giving up just one earned run. Looking back over his last four outings, Pepiot has alternated between wins and losses. The right-hander has been much better on the road, coming in with a 5-3 record and 3.53 ERA compared to 3-3 with a 4.73 ERA at home.

Yandy Diaz has been one of the few bright spots in the Rays lineup this season, as he is batting .281 for the season and has gone 11/31 in his last eight games. He also has two homers in this stretch and comes into the game on a four-game hitting streak. Christopher Morel and Jose Siri are both tied for 2nd on the team with 17 homers but are hitting just .196 and .184, respectively.

As a team, the Rays are averaging just 3.8 runs per game, which is the worst mark in the league. They are also near the bottom of the league in home runs, team batting average, and slugging percentage. Overall, they are 20th in batting average and 24th in OPS.

• The Rays are 4-6 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Rays are 4-1 vs. the run line.
• Tampa Bay has an over/under record of 4-5-1 in their last ten games.
• The Rays have an average of 3.2 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Rays are 3-7
• Looking back across the Rays last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• Tampa Bay has gone 0-3 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Rays have averaged 2.3 runs per game on offense

The Guardians Can Win If…

Cleveland is sending Gavin Williams to the mound today vs. the Rays, and he will be looking to bounce back from a rough outing vs. the Dodgers. In that start, he only went two-thirds of an inning, giving up five earned runs, and taking the loss. Before that outing, he had pitched well, picking up the win vs. the Royals and going seven innings, giving up just one earned run. Williams’ record for the season is 3-8, and his ERA is 5.25. Looking at his WHIP, it is currently 1.37. Out of his 13 starts, Williams has three quality starts, and his ERA at home is 8.04 compared to 11.2 on the road.

Over the past seven games, Lane Thomas has been swinging a hot bat for the Guardians, going 10/28 with two homers and 10 RBIs. This has helped him put together a seven-game hitting streak. Jose Ramirez is also on a four-game hitting streak and comes into the game with a team-high 34 homers and 106 RBIs (2nd in the MLB).

For the season, the Guardians are averaging 4.5 runs per game and are batting .239 as a team. Their home run total of 168 is 10th in the league. Cleveland’s offense has been better at home this season, averaging 4.9 runs per contest. Overall, they are 6th in home runs and 4th in strikeouts.

• The Guardians are 7-3 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Guardians are 3-2 vs. the run line.
• Cleveland has an over/under record of 1-7-2 in their last ten games.
• The Guardians have an average of 3.6 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Guardians are 6-4
• Looking back across the Guardians last five games as the favorite, they are 5-0
• Cleveland has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Guardians have averaged 3.3 runs per game on offense

The Cleveland Guardians are heating up at the perfect time as they prepare to host the Tampa Bay Rays for a crucial four-game series starting Thursday night at Progressive Field. Both teams are fighting for their playoff lives, with Cleveland riding a wave of momentum and Tampa Bay looking to rebound after a tough road trip.

Guardians’ Late-Season Surge

Turning the Tide in September

Cleveland (84-62) has turned things around after a challenging August where they went 8-16 and briefly lost their lead in the American League Central. Since then, the Guardians have bounced back, winning nine of their last 13 games, including a commanding three-game sweep of the Chicago White Sox. Their most recent 6-4 victory on Wednesday showcased their improving form and determination to lock up the division title.

Lane Thomas Finding His Stride

Outfielder Lane Thomas has been a key factor in Cleveland’s resurgence. Acquired from the Washington Nationals in July, Thomas initially struggled, hitting just .148 in his first 28 games with the Guardians. But in September, he’s found his rhythm, batting a scorching .405 with 13 RBIs in 10 games this month. Thomas’s clutch three-hit, four-RBI performance in the series finale against Chicago underscores his importance to the Guardians’ lineup.

Rays’ Ryan Pepiot Takes the Mound

Pepiot in Strong Form

The Guardians will face a stiff challenge from Tampa Bay’s right-hander Ryan Pepiot (8-6, 3.66 ERA), who has been a steady force in the Rays’ rotation. Over his last nine starts, Pepiot has posted an impressive 2.31 ERA, including a dominant outing against Cleveland on July 14, when he pitched six scoreless innings, allowing just two hits in a 2-0 victory.

Pepiot has been reliable for Tampa Bay, even after battling a knee infection that landed him on the injured list earlier this summer. His most recent outing—a 5 1/3 inning, one-run performance against the Baltimore Orioles—further proved his resilience as the Rays fight for a wild-card spot.

In two career appearances against Cleveland, Pepiot is 1-0 with a 0.90 ERA, making him a tough opponent for a surging Guardians offense.

Gavin Williams Looks to Rebound for Cleveland

Williams’ Struggles and Potential

Cleveland will counter with rookie Gavin Williams (3-8, 5.25 ERA), who is looking to bounce back after a rough outing against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Williams was charged with five runs in just 2/3 of an inning in a 7-2 loss last Saturday. His inconsistency has been an issue, but Williams showed promise in the two starts before the Dodgers game, allowing just three runs over 12 innings combined.

Williams, however, has fared well against Tampa Bay in the past. In his July 13 start, he limited the Rays to two runs (one earned) over five innings, and he holds a 1.80 ERA in two career starts against them. Thursday will be a chance for the young right-hander to right the ship and help his team extend their winning streak.

Rays’ Offensive Struggles and Key Performers

Yandy Díaz Shining Despite Struggles

The Rays (71-75) enter this series on the heels of a tough road trip, where they were swept by the Philadelphia Phillies, managing just seven runs across three games. Despite the team’s offensive struggles, first baseman Yandy Díaz has been a bright spot. He’s hitting .400 with eight RBIs over his last 10 games and has had success against Cleveland’s Williams, going 2-for-5 with two doubles.

Tampa Bay’s offensive lineup has struggled to produce consistently, but with Pepiot on the mound and Díaz in form, the Rays will be looking to get back on track in this pivotal series as they continue to chase a wild-card spot.

Key Matchup: Guardians’ Hot Bats vs. Pepiot’s Precision

Cleveland’s Offensive Surge

Cleveland’s offense, led by Lane Thomas and Austin Hedges, has been firing on all cylinders recently. Their aggressive approach has paid off, as the Guardians have been able to jump on pitchers early, as they did in their recent sweep of the White Sox. Thomas has been particularly dangerous, and his hot streak will be key to Cleveland’s success in this series.

Pepiot’s Control vs. Guardians’ Momentum

Pepiot’s strength has been his ability to limit base runners and get out of jams, but he’ll face a Guardians lineup that’s been swinging with confidence. Cleveland will need to stay patient and capitalize on any mistakes Pepiot makes if they want to crack the Rays’ ace.

On the flip side, the Rays will lean on Pepiot’s recent form and their bullpen to carry the load, while hoping their bats can provide just enough run support to grab a win.

What’s at Stake

Guardians Eyeing Division Title

For Cleveland, the stakes are clear. They’ve fought their way back to the top of the AL Central and are determined to keep the momentum going. With the season winding down, every game is crucial in securing their playoff position.

Rays Fighting for Wild-Card Spot

The Rays, meanwhile, are in a tight wild-card race in the American League. With their road struggles continuing, Tampa Bay needs to bounce back quickly in this series to stay competitive in the postseason hunt. A win against a tough Cleveland team would provide a much-needed boost as they aim to regain their footing.

The Lean

Our lean for an over/under pick would be to take the over, as we have this as the 2nd lowest-scoring game of the day. As for who is going to take this one straight up, we like the Guardians to come out on top. Cleveland starter Gavin Williams has the 2nd best odds to pick up the win among today’s starters, and he is also projected to have a good strikeout game.