Cleveland Guardians vs Tampa Bay Rays Picks and Predictions September 13th 2024

Cleveland comes into this one with the Rays as the betting favorite, with their money line odds sitting at -176 compared to the Rays at +148. The over/under line is currently 7.5 runs, and the game is being televised on BSSUN. You can always refer to the current MLB Odds to stay updated with the latest betting lines.

First pitch from Progressive Field is set for 7:10 PM ET, and the forecast for Friday’s matchup calls for clear skies and temperatures near 80 degrees. Tampa Bay will be starting Zack Littell, and the Guardians are starting Tanner Bibee. Cleveland is currently 1st in the AL Central, while the Rays are 4th in the AL East.

Tampa Bay vs. Cleveland Key Information

• Teams: Rays at Guardians
• Where: Progressive Field Cleveland
• Date: Friday, September 13th
• Betting Odds CLE -176 | TB +148 O/U 7.5

The Rays Can Win If…

Tampa Bay is sending right-hander Zack Littell to the mound today vs. the Guardians. He has made 26 starts this season and has a record of 6-9 with an ERA of 3.89. Littell’s WHIP for the season is 1.33. In his last outing, Littell picked up the win, going five innings and not giving up a run vs. the Orioles. Before that, he had given up at least one homer in three straight starts. Littell has made eight quality starts this year and is averaging 7.92 strikeouts per nine innings.

Yandy Diaz comes into the game as the Rays’ top hitter this season, batting .284 with 14 homers and a team-high 65 RBIs. He has also been swinging a hot bat of late, going 9/21 in his last six games. Brandon Lowe has also been swinging the bat well, going 3/10 with two homers in his last four games. Lowe is batting .244 for the season and is 2nd on the team with 18 homers.

As a team, the Rays are 28th in the league in scoring at just 3.9 runs per game. They are also near the bottom of the league in home runs, batting average, and slugging percentage. Overall, they have the league’s worst OPS and are 25th in the league in strikeouts.

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• The Rays are 5-5 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Rays are 4-1 vs. the run line.
• Tampa Bay has an over/under record of 3-6-1 in their last ten games.
• The Rays have an average of 2.8 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Rays are 4-6
• Looking back across the Rays last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• Tampa Bay has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Rays have averaged 2.7 runs per game on offense

The Guardians Can Win If…

Tanner Bibee will be looking to bounce back from a rough outing against the Dodgers, where he took the loss. In that start, he went five innings and gave up two earned runs on four hits. Looking back further, Bibee has allowed at least two earned runs in four straight starts. His ERA for the season is 3.56, along with a record of 11-7. Out of his 28 starts, Bibee has turned in nine quality starts and is averaging 9.7 strikeouts per nine innings. For the season, he has given up 20 homers. At home, his ERA is 4.96 compared to 2.84 on the road.

Currently, the Guardians are averaging 4.5 runs per game, which is 14th in the league. At home, they have been even better, averaging 4.9 runs per contest. As a team, they are batting just .238, which is 16th in the league, and have the worst BABIP in the league. However, they have been good at avoiding strikeouts, and their team strikeout rate is 4th best in the MLB.

José Ramírez and Josh Naylor have been the team’s top power hitters this season, as Ramírez’s 34 homers are 8th in the league, and Naylor’s 29 long balls are 12th. Ramírez’s 106 RBIs are 2nd in the league, and Naylor is 5th in that category. The Guardians will be looking for Lane Thomas to keep his hitting streak going, as he has gone 8/21 over his last five games.

• The Guardians are 6-4 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Guardians are 3-2 vs. the run line.
• Cleveland has an over/under record of 1-7-2 in their last ten games.
• The Guardians have an average of 3.6 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Guardians are 6-4
• Looking back across the Guardians last five games as the favorite, they are 4-1
• Cleveland has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Guardians have averaged 3.3 runs per game on offense

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The Lean

For a money line pick, our lean would be to take the Guardians to come out on top. And as for how we would play the over/under line, we would go with the over. This game is projected to have the 10th most combined runs in today’s slate and the 7th most hits. Cleveland starter Tanner Bibee has the 9th best strikeout projection among today’s starters.

Rays Look to Keep Their Momentum Going Against Division-Leading Guardians

The Tampa Bay Rays are gearing up to finish their season on a high note, and next up, they’re taking on the American League Central leaders, the Cleveland Guardians. While the Rays’ chances of making the playoffs are slim, they’re determined to close the season with some solid performances and finish strong.

Rays Determined to End the Season on a Positive Note

Even though it looks like the Tampa Bay Rays (72-75) might miss the playoffs for the first time in six years, they’re not backing down. After getting swept by the Philadelphia Phillies earlier in the week, the Rays came roaring back with a 5-2 win over the Guardians on Thursday to kick off their four-game series in Cleveland.

The Rays’ recent struggles have been obvious—they’re 8-13 since August 21 when they were two games above .500. Their biggest issue? A struggling offense. During this tough stretch, they’ve had the worst batting average in the majors with runners in scoring position, hitting just .214. Despite going 2-for-10 in those situations on Thursday, the Rays still found a way to win, with their bullpen locking things down for seven scoreless innings and their offense racking up 10 hits.

Infielder Taylor Walls summed it up well, telling MLB.com, “We’ve got to get better at those key moments—stay patient, wait for the right pitch, and make something happen.”

Key Players Who Stepped Up for the Rays

While the Rays’ offense has been hit or miss lately, Thursday’s game saw some standout performances. Second baseman Brandon Lowe hit his 18th homer of the season, sparking a much-needed boost for the team. José Caballero has also been swinging a hot bat lately, going 2-for-4 with an RBI in Thursday’s win. Caballero is 6-for-12 with two RBIs in his last five games, and his resurgence could be just what the Rays need to turn their offensive woes around.

Guardians Focused on Maintaining AL Central Lead

The Cleveland Guardians (84-63) entered this series with a comfortable four-game lead at the top of the AL Central. They dominated the Chicago White Sox earlier this week, sweeping the three-game series and racking up 16 runs in the process. However, they hit a snag against the Rays on Thursday, managing only five hits and scoring just two runs, with only one hit coming in the final seven innings.

A key player to watch for Cleveland is outfielder Lane Thomas, who’s been on fire lately. Since being acquired from the Washington Nationals, Thomas has been a game-changer for the Guardians. He’s hitting .390 with 14 RBIs in 11 games this month. As Thomas told MLB.com, “You just want to come in, do what they brought you in to do, and finish strong.”

With the postseason around the corner, Cleveland will need Thomas to stay hot if they want to lock down their division and head into October with momentum.

Friday’s Pitching Duel: Tanner Bibee vs. Zack Littell

Friday’s game is shaping up to be a tight one, with two solid right-handers on the mound. The Guardians are sending Tanner Bibee (11-7, 3.56 ERA) to the hill. Bibee has been a reliable presence in the rotation, already surpassing his win total from last season. In his last two starts, he’s only given up three runs over 11 innings. The last time he faced the Rays, on August 13, 2023, he was nearly untouchable, giving up just two runs on seven hits in a 9-2 victory for Cleveland.

One area Bibee has struggled with lately is control—he’s issued six walks in his last two starts. If the Rays can stay patient and make him work, they could take advantage of those free passes.

On the other side, the Rays will counter with Zack Littell (6-9, 3.89 ERA). Littell has had an up-and-down season, struggling in his first start back from the injured list, but bouncing back in his last outing. He was solid against the Baltimore Orioles, allowing only three hits and one walk over five-plus innings in a 2-0 Rays win. Littell has pitched well against Cleveland in the past, with a 3-0 record and a 2.01 ERA in 10 career appearances (two starts) against the Guardians.

What to Keep an Eye On

Can the Rays’ Bats Deliver in the Clutch?

The Rays have struggled with clutch hitting, particularly with runners in scoring position. While their bullpen was lights out on Thursday, Tampa Bay needs to start capitalizing on scoring chances if they want to string together more wins. Watch for guys like Brandon Lowe and José Caballero to come through in those key moments.

Will Bibee’s Command Hold Up?

Tanner Bibee has been solid overall, but his recent command issues have been concerning. If the Rays can work the count and force Bibee into high-stress situations, they might be able to get to him early and put some pressure on the Guardians.

Can Lane Thomas Stay Hot?

Lane Thomas has been one of the hottest hitters in baseball this month, and if he keeps it going, he could be the difference-maker in what’s likely to be a low-scoring affair. The Rays will need to keep him in check if they want to grab another win.

Series Outlook

The Guardians are holding a comfortable four-game lead in the AL Central, but they’re still fighting to secure their spot at the top. Meanwhile, the Rays, though out of serious playoff contention, are focused on ending their season on a high note. Both teams will be leaning heavily on their starters in this game, and the Rays will be looking to build off their momentum from Thursday’s win.

The Guardians’ offense has been potent, especially with Lane Thomas on a tear, but Tampa Bay’s bullpen showed it can contain Cleveland’s lineup. If the Rays can finally come through with some clutch hits, and if Zack Littell delivers another strong outing, this could be a closely fought contest.

Conclusion

As the Rays aim to keep their positive momentum going, Friday’s game against the Guardians is set to be a thrilling showdown. With Tampa Bay looking to finish the season strong and Cleveland focused on solidifying their AL Central lead, both teams will be giving it their all. For the Rays, it’s about capitalizing on scoring opportunities and getting key performances from players like Brandon Lowe and José Caballero. For Cleveland, they’ll be counting on Lane Thomas’ hot bat and Tanner Bibee’s ability to regain control on the mound.