Cleveland Guardians vs Cincinnati Reds Picks and Predictions September 25th 2024

Vying to make playoff roster, Guardians rookie lefty faces Reds

There does appear to be a chance of rain in Cleveland on Wednesday, where the Guardians and Reds are set to face off at 6:40 PM ET at Progressive Field. Cleveland is 91-67 and leads the AL Central, while the Reds are 76-82 and are 4th in the NL Central. The over/under line is currently at 8 runs, and the Guardians are favored on the money line, with their odds sitting at -148 compared to the Reds at +124.

BSGL will be televising Wednesday’s interleague matchup, and Jakob Junis is starting for the Reds, while the Guardians are sending Joey Cantillo to the mound. Cleveland comes in having won two straight, while the Reds have lost two in a row.

Cincinnati vs. Cleveland Key Information

• Teams: Reds at Guardians
• Where: Progressive Field Cleveland
• Date: Wednesday, September 25th
• Betting Odds CLE -148 | CIN +124 O/U 8

The Reds Can Win If…

Cincinnati is sending right-hander Jakob Junis to the mound today as he faces the Guardians on the road. Junis has made 23 appearances this season to go along with five starts. He has a record of 4-0 and an ERA of 2.61. Opposing batters are hitting .197 off Junis this season, and he has a WHIP of .84. So far, Junis has made one quality start, and his ERA on the road is 3.58 compared to 2.65 at home. Junis’ last outing came on September 18th, where he went six innings, giving up one earned run, and finished with a no-decision.

Elly De La Cruz has been swinging a hot bat for the Reds of late, going 10/34 in his last eight games, including one home run and five RBIs. He is also the team’s home run leader this season, with 25 long balls. De La Cruz is batting .260 for the season. Spencer Steer and Jeimer Candelario are also tied for 2nd on the team with 20 homers, but both are hitting below .230.

As a team, the Reds are averaging 4.4 runs per game, which is 15th in the league. Their team batting average of .232 is 19th in the league, and they are also near the bottom of the league in on-base percentage and slugging. Currently, Nick Martini is on a three-game hitting streak.

• The Reds are 5-5 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Reds are 2-3 vs. the run line.
• Cincinnati has an over/under record of 6-4 in their last ten games.
• The Reds have an average of 3.8 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Reds are 5-5
• Looking back across the Reds last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• Cincinnati has gone 0-3 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Reds have averaged 3.1 runs per game on offense

The Guardians Can Win If…

Through seven starts, Joey Cantillo has a record of 2-3 and an ERA of 4.63 for the Guardians. He has made one quality start this year and is coming off an outing in which he didn’t give up an earned run. Against the Rays on September 14th, Cantillo went five innings, picking up the win in that outing. In his most recent start, he went 4 1/3 innings, giving up one earned run on six hits. Cantillo’s ERA at home is 2.21 compared to 7.48 on the road.

Jose Ramirez has been swinging a hot bat of late for the Guardians, going 7/20 in his last five games with two homers and five RBIs. For the season, he is batting .275 with 37 homers and 112 RBIs, which is 3rd best in the league. Josh Naylor is also having a strong season for the Guardians, as he is 2nd on the team with 31 homers and has driven in 107 runs.

As a team, the Guardians are averaging 4.4 runs per game and are 10th in the league in homers. They are batting just .238 as a team, which is 15th in the MLB. Cleveland is 9th in home runs and 14th in on-base percentage. So far, they have been a better offensive team at home, averaging 4.7 runs per game.

• The Guardians are 7-3 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Guardians are 4-1 vs. the run line.
• Cleveland has an over/under record of 2-8 in their last ten games.
• The Guardians have an average of 4.0 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Guardians are 5-5
• Looking back across the Guardians last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• Cleveland has gone 2-1 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Guardians have averaged 3.3 runs per game on offense

The Lean

Today’s Reds vs. Guardians matchup should be a low-scoring game, but with the line sitting at 8 runs, we are still leaning towards taking the over. As for how we would play the money line in this one, we are leaning towards the Reds to come out on top. Cincinnati starter Jakob Junis has the 8th best strikeout projection among today’s starters.

Rookie left-hander Joey Cantillo has the opportunity to make a crucial impact on the Cleveland Guardians’ postseason pitching staff as he prepares for his first career start against the Cincinnati Reds on Wednesday night. As the Guardians look to sweep this two-game series against their Ohio rivals, Cantillo’s performance could determine his role on the playoff roster.

Cantillo’s Breakthrough Season

Initially not expected to play a major role for Cleveland this season, Cantillo (2-3, 4.63 ERA) has steadily proven his worth since his MLB debut on July 28. Over eight appearances, including three recent starts, the 24-year-old has demonstrated poise and consistency. In those starts, Cantillo has allowed just three runs—two earned—while striking out 22 batters in 16 1/3 innings. His command, particularly in high-leverage situations, has caught the attention of the Guardians’ coaching staff as they prepare for the playoffs.

One of his standout performances came in a pivotal 3-2, 10-inning victory against the Minnesota Twins last Thursday, a game in which the Guardians clinched a playoff berth. Cantillo lasted 4 1/3 innings, allowing two runs (one earned) while striking out six. This performance solidified his status as a valuable arm for Cleveland, potentially earning him a spot in the postseason rotation.

“It’s the best thing in the world,” Cantillo said of celebrating Cleveland’s playoff berth with his teammates. His enthusiasm, combined with his recent success, has made him a strong candidate for key innings during the postseason.

Guardians’ Playoff Outlook

With a 91-67 record, the Guardians have clinched the American League Central Division title and secured a first-round bye into the AL Division Series. This achievement removes some of the pressure from Wednesday’s game, allowing manager Terry Francona to further evaluate Cantillo and other players ahead of the playoffs.

Lane Thomas, who hit a two-run homer and drove in three RBIs during the Guardians’ 6-1 victory over Cincinnati on Tuesday, emphasized the importance of maintaining momentum heading into October. “It’s huge,” Thomas said. “We want to build off this as we head into the playoffs.”

Thomas has been red-hot in September, with seven home runs and 20 RBIs in 22 games, further adding to Cleveland’s offensive firepower. He also boasts a career .280 batting average with nine homers and 26 RBIs in 34 games against Cincinnati, making him a significant threat as the Guardians wrap up the regular season.

Cantillo’s First Test Against the Reds

Though Cantillo will face the Reds for the first time in his career, he enters the matchup with confidence, knowing that the Guardians have already secured their playoff position. This gives him the opportunity to fine-tune his skills without the pressure of immediate playoff consequences. His performance could determine whether he’s used as a starter or a reliever in the postseason, and the game serves as a crucial audition.

Reds’ Struggles and Transition

The Cincinnati Reds (76-82) are in the midst of a tough season, having recently secured their first losing record in four years. Tuesday’s loss to the Guardians marked their first game since manager David Bell was dismissed after six seasons at the helm. The Reds’ season has been marred by inconsistency, and their front office has acknowledged that the team has not played up to expectations.

While the Reds have struggled, there have been bright spots, including the play of outfielder Spencer Steer. However, Steer has seen a dip in production, hitting .229 after a strong rookie season in 2022 when he batted .271. Star prospect Elly De La Cruz is also in a slump, going 0-for-8 over the last two games after a hot streak where he hit 10-for-26 over his previous six contests.

Jakob Junis’ Role in Cincinnati’s Future

On the mound for the Reds will be Jakob Junis (4-0, 2.61 ERA), who was acquired from the Milwaukee Brewers at the trade deadline. Junis was originally slated to start on Tuesday but was pushed back for personal reasons. Despite the Reds’ overall struggles, Junis has been a solid contributor in his limited appearances, allowing just two earned runs over 20 innings pitched in his four starts for Cincinnati. His 17 strikeouts and strong command have impressed, and the Reds see him as a potential cornerstone for the 2025 season.

However, Junis has historically struggled against the Guardians, posting a 3-9 record with a 6.41 ERA in 18 career appearances (15 starts). Cleveland’s José Ramírez has particularly thrived against Junis, hitting two home runs off the right-hander in their past meetings.

What’s at Stake for the Guardians

For the Guardians, Wednesday’s game provides more than just an opportunity to sweep the series against their in-state rivals. It’s also a final test for players like Joey Cantillo to prove their readiness for postseason action. With Cleveland already secure in their playoff position, Francona can afford to experiment with lineups and rotations, ensuring his team is fully prepared for the intensity of October baseball.

Cantillo’s performance could elevate him to a more prominent role in the playoffs, whether as a starter or a key bullpen piece. As Cleveland eyes a deep playoff run, emerging talents like Cantillo will be vital to their success.

Conclusion

As the Guardians continue to build momentum heading into the playoffs, Joey Cantillo’s development has become an exciting subplot in Cleveland’s quest for postseason success. While the Reds look ahead to rebuilding for 2025, the Guardians are focused on fine-tuning their roster, and Cantillo’s potential impact could make him a difference-maker in October.

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