Cleveland Guardians vs Kansas City Royals Picks and Predictions August 26th 2024

Royals open make-or-break stretch vs. Guardians

The forecast from Cleveland on Monday calls for broken clouds and temperatures in the low 70s. First pitch from Progressive Field is set for 1:10 PM ET. Nick Sandlin is starting for the Guardians, and they are 75-55 and have won two straight. The Royals have Cole Ragans on the mound, and they are 72-58 and have lost two in a row.

Kansas City is currently favored on the money line, with their odds sitting at -122 compared to the Guardians at +102. Monday’s over/under line is at 8.5 runs, and the game will be televised on BSGL.

Kansas City vs. Cleveland Key Information

• Teams: Royals at Guardians
• Where: Progressive Field Cleveland
• Date: Monday, August 26th
• Betting Odds KC -122 | CLE +102 O/U 8.5

The Royals Can Win If…

Cole Ragans gets the start for the Royals today as he faces off against the Guardians on the road. He has made 26 starts this season and has a record of 10-8 with a 3.31 ERA. Ragans’ WHIP for the season is currently 1.15, and he has turned in 17 quality starts. Ragans’ most recent outing didn’t go well, as he took the loss, giving up four earned runs in five innings of work. Before that, he had won three straight starts. Ragans is averaging 10.81 strikeouts per nine innings, and his total for the season is 183, which ranks third in the AL.

Heading into today’s game, the Royals are the 8th highest-scoring team in the league, averaging 4.8 runs per game. At home, they have been even better, putting up 5.2 runs per contest. Kansas City has been one of the league’s best contact-hitting teams so far, as they have the 2nd fewest strikeouts in the league. As a team, they are batting .257, which is the 5th best mark in the MLB.

Bobby Witt Jr. has been one of the league’s top hitters this season, with a batting average of .347 to go along with 26 home runs and 93 RBIs. Salvador Perez and Vinnie Pasquantino have also been solid power threats, with 23 and 18 homers, respectively. Over his last seven games, MJ Melendez has gone 6/17 with two homers, while Michael Massey has gone 9/20 in his last six games.

• The Royals are 7-3 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Royals are 2-3 vs. the run line.
• Kansas City has an over/under record of 5-4-1 in their last ten games.
• The Royals have an average of 4.0 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Royals are 7-3
• Looking back across the Royals last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• Kansas City has gone 2-1 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Royals have averaged 6.2 runs per game on offense

The Guardians Can Win If…

Cleveland is starting Nick Sandlin today vs. the Royals, and he has made 56 appearances out of the bullpen this season. Sandlin’s record is 7-0, and he has an ERA of 3.88. This year, opponents are batting .202 off the right-hander. Sandlin’s last outing came on August 22nd, where he went two-thirds of an inning, giving up two earned runs on one hit. He issued one walk in that outing. Sandlin didn’t give up a run in the two outings before that. The right-hander has finished with a no-decision in each of his last three outings.

Heading into today’s game, the Guardians are averaging 4.6 runs per game, which is 13th in the league. At home, they have been even better, putting up 5 runs per contest. As a team, they are batting just .237, but they have the league’s 13th ranked scoring offense. Cleveland’s offense has been led by Jose Ramirez and Josh Naylor, who have 33 and 28 home runs, respectively.

Over his last eight games, Jhonkensy Noel has gone 8/25 with three homers and six RBIs. During this stretch, he has also scored eight runs. Daniel Schneemann and Will Brennan will both be looking to extend their three-game hitting streaks in today’s game.

• The Guardians are 4-6 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Guardians are 2-3 vs. the run line.
• Cleveland has an over/under record of 4-5-1 in their last ten games.
• The Guardians have an average of 4.2 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Guardians are 3-7
• Looking back across the Guardians last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• Cleveland has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Guardians have averaged 2.6 runs per game on offense

The Lean

As the Guardians host the Royals today, we are leaning towards them picking up the win at home. We have this as the highest-scoring game of the day, and our lean would be towards taking the over. The Guardians have the 2nd best team hits projection, and Nick Sandlin has the lowest hits allowed projection among today’s starters.

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The Kansas City Royals are set to begin a make-or-break stretch that could determine their fate in the American League Central division. With just one game separating the Royals from the division-leading Cleveland Guardians, the upcoming series between these two teams will be pivotal.

A High-Stakes Matchup

The Royals and Guardians are about to engage in a crucial seven-game showdown over the next ten days, starting with a split doubleheader on Monday. As of Friday, the Royals were trailing the Guardians by a single game in the AL Central standings. However, recent performances have diverged, with Kansas City suffering two heavy losses to the Philadelphia Phillies (outscored 22-5) while Cleveland secured back-to-back wins against the Texas Rangers, helping them maintain their slim lead.

This series could significantly alter the standings, as both the Royals and the Minnesota Twins are just three games behind the Guardians. The Royals are also holding onto an AL wild-card spot, but this series could either solidify their postseason aspirations or push them out of contention.

Pitching Matchups: Key to the Series

Kansas City will rely heavily on their starting pitchers in this series, beginning with left-hander Cole Ragans (10-8, 3.31 ERA) in Game 1 of Monday’s doubleheader. Ragans has been solid on the road, with a 3-1 record and a 2.50 ERA over his last six starts away from home. However, his last outing was a bit shaky, as he allowed five runs (four earned) over five-plus innings in a loss to the Los Angeles Angels. Ragans has also struggled against Cleveland earlier this season, giving up five runs and six hits in 4 2/3 innings on June 29, with Guardians rookie Jhonkensy Noel hitting a two-run homer off him.

In Game 2, the Royals will turn to right-hander Alec Marsh (7-7, 4.71 ERA), who is being recalled from Triple-A Omaha. Marsh last pitched in the majors on July 29, delivering a strong performance with one run allowed over six innings in a 10-3 win against Cleveland. This will be his second start against the Guardians, and the Royals hope for a repeat of his earlier success.

On the Guardians’ side, manager Terry Francona will use reliever Nick Sandlin (7-0, 3.88 ERA) as an opener in Game 1, with left-hander Logan Allen (8-4, 5.56 ERA) set to start Game 2 after being recalled from Triple-A Columbus. Allen has had mixed results this season and struggled against Kansas City on June 30, allowing three runs on six hits in 4 1/3 innings.

Star Performers: Players to Watch

The outcome of this series could hinge on the performances of key players. For the Royals, Bobby Witt Jr. is expected to play a crucial role. Witt, who hit his 26th homer of the season in Sunday’s loss to the Phillies, has been particularly effective against Cleveland this year. He is batting .375 (9-for-24) with two home runs and five RBIs against the Guardians in 2024, and his career numbers against Logan Allen are impressive, going 6-for-11. Witt’s continued success could be a game-changer for Kansas City.

On the Guardians’ side, rookie Jhonkensy Noel has emerged as a power threat, homering in each of the past two games. With 12 home runs in just 41 games this season, Noel could be a significant challenge for the Royals’ pitching staff, especially considering his earlier success against Cole Ragans.

The Road Ahead

For the Kansas City Royals, this series against the Cleveland Guardians represents more than just a few games—it could define their season. A strong showing could propel them to the top of the AL Central and secure a firmer grip on a playoff spot. However, a poor performance could see them fall out of contention altogether.

Manager Matt Quatraro is confident that the team’s recent struggles will not impact their performance going forward. “The past two games [against Philadelphia] will have no impact on what we do [Monday], or here on forward,” Quatraro stated, emphasizing the importance of looking ahead.

The Guardians, who once held the best record in the majors as of June 26, have struggled to maintain their early-season dominance but remain a formidable opponent. As Guardians All-Star David Fry noted, “You want to play meaningful games down the stretch. These next four games are going to be fun.”

With the stakes so high, both teams are poised for an intense and potentially season-defining series. Royals fans and baseball enthusiasts alike will be watching closely as Kansas City and Cleveland battle for supremacy in the AL Central.