Cleveland Guardians vs Kansas City Royals Picks and Predictions August 27th 2024

Royals eye share of AL Central lead as series vs. Guardians continues

Both the Royals and Guardians will send their respective pitchers to the mound on Tuesday, as Michael Lorenzen is starting for the Royals, while the Guardians are starting Gavin Williams. The game is set to get started at 6:40 PM ET from Progressive Field in Cleveland. Kansas City is currently on a two-game winning streak, and they are 74-58, while the Guardians are 75-57 and are 1st in the AL Central.

The money line odds have the Guardians at -146, while the odds are sitting at +124 for the Royals. Tuesday’s over/under line is at 9 runs, and the game will be televised on BSGL.

Kansas City vs. Cleveland Key Information

• Teams: Royals at Guardians
• Where: Progressive Field Cleveland
• Date: Tuesday, August 27th
• Betting Odds CLE -146 | KC +124 O/U 9

The Royals Can Win If…

Michael Lorenzen is coming off a strong outing for the Royals, as he didn’t allow a run in his last start. Against the Angels on August 21st, he pitched 7 innings, picking up the win in the outing. Looking at his overall numbers, Lorenzen has made 22 starts and nine of them have been quality starts. His ERA for the season is 3.48, along with a record of 7-6. This year, he has allowed a total of 17 home runs and is averaging 6.59 strikeouts per nine innings. For the season, Lorenzen has a WHIP of 1.25.

Kansas City’s offense has been one of the league’s best this season, as they are 8th in the league with 4.9 runs per game. They have been even better at home, averaging 5.2 runs per contest. The Royals are also near the top of the league in terms of batting average and slugging percentage.

Over his last 10 games, Salvador Perez has gone 12/36 with three homers and 14 RBIs. He is also on a three-game hitting streak. Bobby Witt Jr. is also on a three-game hitting streak, and for the season, he is batting .347 with 27 homers and 94 RBIs. Vinnie Pasquantino has the most RBIs on the team, coming in with 96 and is 3rd in the league in that category.

• The Royals are 7-3 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Royals are 2-3 vs. the run line.
• Kansas City has an over/under record of 6-3-1 in their last ten games.
• The Royals have an average of 5.0 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Royals are 7-3
• Looking back across the Royals last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• Kansas City has gone 2-1 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Royals have averaged 5.9 runs per game on offense

The Guardians Can Win If…

Cleveland is sending Gavin Williams to the mound today vs. the Royals, and he comes into the game with a record of 2-6 and an ERA of 5.13. Looking at his overall numbers, Williams has made 10 starts, and opponents are batting .259 this season. In his 10 appearances, Williams has turned in two quality starts, and his ERA at home is 9.15 compared to 3.46 on the road. Williams’ most recent outing came against the Yankees, where he took the loss, giving up three earned runs in 4 1/3 innings of work. He has lost each of his last two outings.

Heading into today’s game, the Guardians are averaging 4.5 runs per game, which is 13th in the league. At home, they have been even better, averaging 4.9 runs per game. As a team, they are batting just .237, but they have been good at avoiding strikeouts and are near the top of the league in home runs. One area they have struggled is in getting on base, as their team OBP of .308 is just 15th in the league.

José Ramírez has been one of the league’s top power hitters this season, as his 33 homers are 5th in the league. He is also 2nd in the league with 104 RBIs. Over his last seven games, Jhonkensy Noel has gone 8/26 with three homers and six RBIs. This has helped him move his season average up to .308.

• The Guardians are 3-7 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Guardians are 3-2 vs. the run line.
• Cleveland has an over/under record of 5-5 in their last ten games.
• The Guardians have an average of 5.4 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Guardians are 3-7
• Looking back across the Guardians last five games as the favorite, they are 2-3
• Cleveland has gone 0-3 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Guardians have averaged 2.6 runs per game on offense

The Lean

For an over/under pick, our lean is on the over, as this is projected to be the 7th highest-scoring game of today’s league slate. As for who is going to take this one straight-up, we have our lean on the Royals to pick up the win. Kansas City’s offense is our 3rd highest projected team in terms of hits, and Gavin Williams is 7th among today’s starters in projected strikeouts.

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The Kansas City Royals, riding high on a recent surge, are on the brink of sharing the top spot in the American League (AL) Central as they prepare for Tuesday’s critical game against the Cleveland Guardians. The Royals’ resurgence has been fueled by a combination of timely hitting, solid defense, and, notably, the outstanding performance of right-hander Michael Lorenzen.

Michael Lorenzen: The Royals’ Secret Weapon

Michael Lorenzen (7-6, 3.47 ERA) is set to start for the Royals, and his recent dominance over the Guardians has positioned Kansas City as a strong contender in this crucial series. Lorenzen’s career numbers against Cleveland are impressive—he holds a 1.97 ERA over 11 appearances, including three starts. However, it’s his performances since 2022 that have truly stood out.

In his last three starts against the Guardians, Lorenzen has allowed just one run on 10 hits across 20 innings, boasting an incredible 0.45 ERA. This level of dominance has made him a critical asset for the Royals as they push to capture a share of the division lead.

Royals Riding High: Momentum and Key Players

Kansas City comes into Tuesday’s game with significant momentum, having swept a doubleheader against the Guardians on Monday. The first game saw Bobby Witt Jr. deliver a clutch go-ahead solo home run in the eighth inning, leading the Royals to a 4-3 victory. In the second game, Salvador Perez took center stage, smashing two homers, including a grand slam, to power the Royals to a 9-4 win.

Perez has been particularly hot at the plate, going 7-for-11 (.636) over his past three games. His leadership and timely hitting have been pivotal in the Royals’ recent success.

“We like to compete,” Perez told Bally Sports Kansas City. “We had to come into Cleveland and win the first two games. Now, we’re just going to try to win every game.”

From a Distant Third to Contenders: The Royals’ Climb

As recently as June 25, the Royals were 10 games behind Cleveland in the AL Central, with the Guardians holding a comfortable nine-game lead over the second-place Minnesota Twins. However, Cleveland’s struggles—going 24-31 since late June—have opened the door for Kansas City, which now sits just one game behind the division leaders.

The Royals’ recent success has turned what once seemed like a runaway division race into a heated contest. With six wins in eight games against Cleveland this season, Kansas City has demonstrated they have the Guardians’ number.

Guardians Looking to Bounce Back: The Role of Gavin Williams

While the Royals have momentum, the Guardians are determined to hold onto their lead. Cleveland’s first-year manager, Stephen Vogt, remains confident despite Monday’s disappointing results.

“They’re pros,” Vogt said of his players. “They know Monday was a rough day. Every time we have a tough day, they come back ready to win. This group’s not going to get discouraged. It’s not in their DNA. They all know where we’re at.”

Vogt will send right-hander Gavin Williams (2-6, 5.13 ERA) to the mound on Tuesday. Williams has had a tough stretch, losing his last two starts, including a short outing against the New York Yankees where he lasted just 4 1/3 innings and gave up three runs on four hits. However, Williams has historically performed well against the Royals, with a 1.62 ERA in three career starts, although he hasn’t faced them this season.

A Crucial Series Finale and What’s Next

The Royals and Guardians will face off again on Wednesday to conclude this critical four-game series. Depending on Tuesday’s outcome, the Royals could either pull even with Cleveland or fall further behind in their quest for the AL Central crown.

Following this series, the teams will meet again for a three-game set starting next Monday, making this a pivotal stretch in the battle for divisional supremacy. Kansas City’s infielder Maikel Garcia summed up the Royals’ approach simply: “Just do the small things in the game and try to score more runs than them. We’ve faced those guys (the Guardians) a lot of times and we know what they’ve got.”

Conclusion: A Season-Defining Moment

As the Royals look to continue their hot streak and the Guardians aim to hold onto their shrinking lead, Tuesday’s game is shaping up to be a defining moment in the AL Central race. With Lorenzen’s dominance on the mound and key players like Perez and Witt Jr. leading the charge, Kansas City is poised to make a statement. Meanwhile, Cleveland will rely on Williams and their resilience to keep their division hopes alive.

This series could very well determine the trajectory of both teams as the season enters its final stretch. Baseball fans won’t want to miss the drama as these two rivals battle it out for AL Central supremacy.