Guardians Bracing for White-Hot Tigers in ALDS

From Progressive Field in Cleveland, we have the Tigers and Guardians facing off in an AL Central matchup. Today’s game is being televised on TBS, and the Guardians are the betting favorite, with their money line odds sitting at -149. The Tigers have a line of +128 and will be looking to pull off the upset to snap a two-game losing streak.

The over/under line for Saturday’s game is at 7 runs, and the forecast in Cleveland calls for clear skies and temperatures in the upper 50s. First pitch is set for 1:08 PM ET. Detroit is 86-76, while the Guardians are 92-69 and are currently on a two-game losing streak.

Detroit vs. Cleveland Key Information

Teams: Tigers at Guardians
Where: Progressive Field Cleveland
Date: Saturday, October 5th
Betting Odds CLE -149 | DET +128 O/U 7

The Tigers Can Win If…

As the Tigers prepare to face the Guardians in Cleveland for the first game of their AL Divisional Round series, they’ll be looking to snap a two-game losing streak. Detroit finished the regular season with a 43-38 record both at home and on the road. They’ve won four straight as road underdogs and four straight overall on the road.

Detroit’s run line record for the season is 88-76, with a +0.5 average run margin on the road compared to an even margin at home. They’ve covered the run line in four consecutive road games. As underdogs, their run line record is 64-34. The Tigers’ over/under record is 78-81, and 88.3% of their games have had higher totals than today’s 7-run line. The under has hit in their last two games.

Detroit is sending left-hander Tyler Holton to the mound today vs. the Guardians. He has made 68 appearances this season and has a record of 7-2 with a 2.19 ERA. Holton’s WHIP for the season is .78, and opponents are batting .171 off him this year. Out of his nine starts, he has come away with a no-decision in three straight outings. Holton’s last outing came on October 2nd vs. the Astros, where he went one inning and didn’t give up a run. In that outing, he gave up one hit and didn’t issue a walk. He has allowed a homer in two of his last three outings.

Heading into today’s game, Riley Greene and Kerry Carpenter are the Tigers’ top power threats, with Greene leading the team with 74 RBIs and Carpenter just behind him at 57. Greene also leads the team with 24 home runs, while Carpenter has 18 of his own. Carpenter has struggled a bit of late, going just 2/13 in his last four games. Wenceel Perez has been hot of late, going 6/16 in his last four games, but he is still looking for his first homer of the season.

Overall, the Tigers are averaging 4.2 runs per game, which is 19th in the league. They are also just 19th in team batting average at .234. Detroit’s team on-base percentage of .300 is also one of the worst marks in the league. As a team, they are batting just .234, which is 15th in the MLB.

The Tigers are 8-2 in their last ten games.
Over their last five games, the Tigers are 3-2 vs. the run line.
Detroit has an over/under record of 2-7-1 in their last ten games.
The Tigers have an average of 3.4 runs per game over their last five games.
Across their last ten road games, the Tigers are 9-1
Looking back across the Tigers last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
Detroit has gone 3-0 in their last three games as the underdog
In their ten most recent road games, the Tigers have averaged 4.4 runs per game on offense

The Guardians Can Win If…

As the Guardians prepare to host Detroit in game one of their AL Divisional Round series, they’ll look to turn things around after dropping their last two games. Cleveland finished the regular season with a 92-69 record, including 50-30 at home and 42-39 on the road. They’ve also lost two straight at home and as favorites.

Cleveland’s run line record for the season is 82-79, and they’ve gone 39-41 against the run line at home. The under has hit in five straight Guardians games, and their overall over/under record stands at 68-82. Today’s line of seven runs is well below their season average of 8.3 runs.

Tanner Bibee gets the start for the Guardians today and will be looking to build off his last outing, where he gave up just one earned run in seven innings of work. In that outing vs. the Reds, he only gave up four hits and issued two walks. Looking back further, Bibee has finished with a record of 12-8 and an ERA of 3.47. Opponents are batting .225 off the right-hander this season. Bibee has made 31 starts, and his ERA at home is 4.56 compared to 2.84 on the road.

Heading into today’s game, the Guardians are averaging 4.4 runs per game, which is 14th in the league. They have been a better offensive team at home this season, averaging 4.7 runs per game. As a team, they are batting .238, which is 14th in the league, and are also near the top of the league in terms of striking out, averaging just 7 strikeouts per game.

Jose Ramirez has been swinging a hot bat for the Guardians, going 7/18 in his last five games with two homers. For the season, he is batting .279 with 39 homers and 118 RBIs. Josh Naylor is also having a good season at the plate, hitting .243 with 31 homers.

The Guardians are 5-5 in their last ten games.
Over their last five games, the Guardians are 3-2 vs. the run line.
Cleveland has an over/under record of 2-8 in their last ten games.
The Guardians have an average of 3.4 runs per game over their last five games.
Across their last ten home games, the Guardians are 5-5
Looking back across the Guardians last five games as the favorite, they are 2-3
Cleveland has gone 2-1 in their last three games as the underdog
In their ten most recent road games, the Guardians have averaged 3.3 runs per game on offense

The Lean

Look for the Tigers to come out on top in this one as they take on the Guardians. We are leaning towards taking the under, as this is our lowest projected scoring game of the day. Tigers starter Tyler Holton has the highest innings pitched projection and lowest earned runs allowed projection among today’s starters, while Tanner Bibee has the worst chance to pick up a win among today’s starters.

MLB EXPERT PICKS, PREDICTION & BETTING TIPS

For the first time in their long and storied rivalry, the Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Guardians are set to clash in the American League Division Series (ALDS). Although these two teams have faced each other more than 2,300 times in regular season play, this will be their first-ever postseason meeting. The best-of-five series, starting Saturday in Cleveland, promises high stakes, with the winner advancing to the American League Championship Series (ALCS).

Tigers’ Surge and Guardians’ Consistency: Two Teams on Different Paths

The Detroit Tigers enter the ALDS as one of the hottest teams in baseball, riding a wave of momentum after winning 31 of their last 42 regular-season games. Their turnaround began after the July 30 trade deadline, when Detroit parted ways with several veterans, igniting a surge that saw them overtake the faltering Minnesota Twins for the final AL playoff berth.

That momentum carried into the postseason, as Detroit shocked the Houston Astros with a two-game sweep in the wild-card round, continuing their red-hot streak. Tigers catcher Austin Hedges acknowledged the challenge ahead, stating, “We know the Tigers have been hot for a long time now… They’ve been the best team in baseball for a while. We have our hands full, but we’re prepared.”

In contrast, the Cleveland Guardians have been a model of consistency all season. Under first-year manager Stephen Vogt, they secured the No. 2 seed in the American League, earning a first-round bye. Cleveland’s balanced roster and solid performances across the board have been key to their success, and they now look to translate that regular-season success into postseason triumph.

Historic Rivalry Meets New Stage

Despite decades of regular-season battles, this is the first time Detroit and Cleveland will face off in October. Both teams and their respective cities are embracing the moment, with Tigers manager A.J. Hinch noting, “Detroit is a city that’s built around grit. Cleveland, obviously, a very proud sports town… This matchup is good for baseball.”

The Guardians, who reached the World Series as recently as 2016, are no strangers to playoff baseball. Detroit, meanwhile, is looking to rekindle their postseason magic, having last been in serious contention in the mid-2010s. The contrast in experience makes this series all the more intriguing, with the Tigers embodying a scrappy, underdog mentality and Cleveland aiming to use their experience and star power to advance.

Key Matchups: Star Power vs. Grit

One of the biggest storylines heading into this series is the contrast between Cleveland’s established stars and Detroit’s team-oriented, gritty approach. Cleveland boasts one of the best players in baseball, six-time All-Star third baseman José Ramírez, who has been a constant thorn in Detroit’s side. Ramírez dominated the Tigers during the regular season, hitting .347 with five home runs and 12 RBIs. His career numbers against Detroit are equally impressive, with 33 home runs and 122 RBIs, accompanied by a .304 batting average.

Ramírez’s performance in the ALDS will be crucial for Cleveland’s chances. Guardians manager Stephen Vogt highlighted Ramírez’s impact, saying, “We’re spoiled to watch him play every night. He’s one of the best in the game.”

On the other side, Detroit lacks a singular star like Ramírez but has relied on a deep, cohesive roster that thrives on team chemistry. The Tigers’ recent success has been a true team effort, with contributions coming from multiple players in key moments. While they may not have the star power of Cleveland, their ability to play as a unit could prove to be an advantage in a high-stakes series like this.

Pitching Preview: Holton vs. Bibee

Pitching will be a key factor in Game 1, with both teams relying on different strategies. Detroit will start Tyler Holton, a 28-year-old left-hander who has been used as an opener in recent games. Holton was effective in this role during Detroit’s wild-card series against Houston, and manager A.J. Hinch will count on him to set the tone early against Cleveland.

Holton’s primary responsibility will be to neutralize José Ramírez, as the Tigers hope to force the switch-hitting slugger to bat right-handed. However, Ramírez has had success against Holton in limited at-bats, going 3-for-7 with two doubles. Holton acknowledged the challenge, saying, “He’s probably going to be the most important matchup. We’ve intentionally walked him in the past, and we’ll be ready for him.”

For Cleveland, rookie right-hander Tanner Bibee will take the mound in his first postseason start. The 25-year-old was a solid performer during the regular season, finishing with a 12-8 record and a 3.47 ERA. However, he has struggled against the Tigers, going 1-1 with a 4.50 ERA in four starts this year and 1-3 with a 5.28 ERA in six career appearances.

Despite his lack of playoff experience, Bibee is confident that the adrenaline of the moment will fuel him. He stated, “I don’t know if I’ll be more nervous, but there will definitely be more adrenaline with the bigger crowds and the playoff atmosphere.”

Bibee’s slider, which opponents hit just .152 against this season, will be his out pitch as he looks to stifle the Tigers’ offense.

What to Watch: Key Players and Storylines

José Ramírez’s Dominance: Can the Tigers find a way to neutralize Ramírez, or will the Cleveland star continue his dominance over Detroit pitching?
Pitching Duel: How will Tyler Holton handle his opener role, and can Tanner Bibee rise to the occasion in his postseason debut?
Momentum vs. Experience: Will the Tigers’ recent hot streak carry them past Cleveland, or will the Guardians’ consistency and experience prevail in this pivotal series?
Underdog vs. Favorites: Detroit is embracing the underdog role, while Cleveland enters the series as the favorite. How will this dynamic play out over the course of the series?

Final Thoughts: A Must-Watch Series

The upcoming ALDS between the Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Guardians promises to be an exciting and unpredictable showdown. With a historic rivalry, star power, and contrasting team styles, this series has all the ingredients for a classic postseason battle. Whether it’s Cleveland’s José Ramírez continuing to terrorize Detroit’s pitching staff or the Tigers’ gritty, all-hands-on-deck approach carrying them to another upset, fans are in for a thrilling ride.

Detroit’s momentum and underdog spirit will face a significant test against Cleveland’s consistency and star power. Baseball fans won’t want to miss a minute of this highly anticipated matchup.

Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers Picks and Predictions October 5th 2024