Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers Picks and Predictions October 7th 2024

At 4:08 PM ET, the Tigers and Guardians face off in an AL Central matchup. This one is taking place at Progressive Field in Cleveland, and the Guardians are the slight money line favorite (+110). The Tigers have a money line odds of -129 and they are 86-76 this season. Detroit is starting Tarik Skubal, while Matthew Boyd will go for the Guardians.

Monday’s forecast in Cleveland calls for broken clouds and temperatures in the upper 50s. The over/under line is currently at 6 runs, and the Guardians are looking to snap a two-game losing streak. Detroit is 3rd in the AL Central.

Detroit vs. Cleveland Key Information

Facing a must-win game two, the Tigers are looking to even their series against the Guardians, who lead 1-0. Detroit is on the road, where they posted a 43-38 record during the regular season, matching their home mark. The Tigers have dropped their last two games and as favorites, they’ve also lost two straight.

Detroit’s run line record stands at 88-77, with a +0.4 road scoring margin compared to an even mark at home. On the road, they went 53-31 against the run line. The Tigers’ over/under record is 78-81, and today’s 6-run line is well below their season average of 8.1 runs.

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Tarik Skubal has been dominant this year, coming into the game with a record of 18-4 and an ERA of 2.39. Skubal has made 31 starts and has a WHIP of .92. In his 22 quality starts, Skubal has a strikeout per nine innings figure of 10.69. Skubal finished with a flourish, as he didn’t allow a run in any of his last three starts. His most recent outing came on October 1st vs. the Astros, where he got the win, going six innings and giving up just four hits. Skubal has allowed just one homer in each of his last three starts.

For the season, the Tigers are averaging 4.2 runs per game, which is 19th in the league. They have been a bit better on the road, averaging 4.3 runs per game. As a team, they are batting .234, which is 15th in the league, and their team on-base percentage is just .300 (21st). Detroit’s collective slugging percentage of .385 is 19th in the league.

Riley Greene has been the Tigers’ top power threat this season, as he is batting .262 with a team-high 24 home runs and 74 RBIs. Kerry Carpenter is batting .284 and is 2nd on the team with 18 homers. Carpenter is also 3rd on the team with 57 RBIs. Colt Keith comes into the game with 61 RBIs and is batting .260.

With a 1-0 lead in their series against Detroit, Cleveland looks to extend their advantage in game two. The Guardians finished the regular season with a 92-69 record, going 50-30 at home and 42-39 on the road. As favorites, they posted a 65-36 record, while going 28-33 as underdogs.

During the regular season, Cleveland went 83-79 against the run line, with a +0.8 run-scoring margin at home and +0.4 on the road. At home, their run line record was 40-41. The Guardians’ over/under record is 68-82, and today’s 6-run line is their lowest of the season, compared to their average of 8.2 runs.

Matthew Boyd will be looking to bounce back from a rough outing vs. the Cardinals, as he gets the start for the Guardians today. In that outing, he took the loss, giving up 2 earned runs in 4 innings of work. Looking at his overall numbers, Boyd has made 8 starts, and his ERA is 2.72. Opponents have a batting average of .204 vs. Boyd this season. The left-hander has made 3 quality starts this year. Boyd’s ERA at home is 2.86, compared to 3.28 on the road.

Jose Ramirez has been on a tear for the Guardians, hitting .448 over his last eight games, with four homers and 12 RBIs during that stretch. For the season, he is batting .279 with 39 homers and 118 RBIs. Josh Naylor is also a power threat in the lineup, as he is 13th in the league with 31 homers and is 6th in the league with 108 RBIs.

The Guardians are averaging 4.4 runs per game this season, which is 14th in the league. So far, they have been a better offensive team at home, averaging 4.7 runs per game. Overall, they are batting .238 as a team and have the league’s 11th-ranked home run total.

Our lean for an over/under pick in this Tigers vs. Guardians matchup is to take the under. This is projected to be the lowest-scoring game of the day, and we have this one finishing with the most hits. As for a winner, we would be leaning toward the Tigers to take care of business on the road. Detroit starter Tarik Skubal is projected to have a good outing, and we have the Tigers finishing with more home runs than the Guardians. Matthew Boyd is projected to have a decent start for the Guardians, but we have him finishing with fewer strikeouts than Skubal.

Longtime Friends Tarik Skubal of Tigers, Matthew Boyd of Guardians Share Game 2 Stage

Skubal and Boyd’s Friendship Set for Playoff Showdown

Tarik Skubal’s incredible journey toward potentially winning the American League Cy Young Award has been influenced by many, including former Detroit teammate Matthew Boyd. Ironically, the two left-handed pitchers will face off when Skubal’s Detroit Tigers take on Boyd’s Cleveland Guardians in Game 2 of the AL Division Series on Monday in Cleveland.

“Now we’re on this stage so I think that’s pretty special,” Skubal said. “It’ll be fun to watch him go play. But I’m going to be rooting against him pretty heavily.”

Skubal (18-4, 2.39 ERA), a frontrunner for the Cy Young, will be looking to help Detroit even the series after Cleveland claimed Game 1 with a dominant 7-0 victory on Saturday.

Boyd (2-2, 2.72 ERA), now with Cleveland, had two stints with the Tigers and played a significant role in Skubal’s development. The irony of their postseason showdown adds another layer of complexity to their friendship.

Boyd’s Influence on Skubal’s Journey

Boyd, who pitched for the Tigers from 2015-21 and again in 2023 before undergoing Tommy John surgery, was more than just a teammate to Skubal. He was a mentor, helping Skubal navigate the mental challenges that come with playing in the major leagues. Skubal, 27, leaned on Boyd’s advice when he first reached the majors in 2020.

“I had a lot of discussions with him, just mentally, you’re worried about going up and down, how do I just focus on my job?” Skubal said. “And he had a lot of advice and a lot of good stuff for me throughout all that.”

Boyd, 33, appreciated his relationship with Skubal, offering advice as Skubal made the transition to the major leagues. The bond between the two extended beyond their time on the field, especially after Boyd’s Tommy John surgery, where Skubal played a supportive role.

“His story coming back from Tommy John… I actually watched a lot of his rehab starts,” Skubal said of Boyd. “Just more mentally than physically, Tommy John is a tough injury to have.”

A Mentorship That Grew During Difficult Times

Both pitchers have endured the difficult road of recovering from Tommy John surgery. Skubal missed the 2017 season during college due to the same surgery, while Boyd had to overcome the challenge just last year. Their shared experiences strengthened their friendship, and Boyd was an influential figure in Skubal’s mental preparation for the game.

“I think that speaks to the guy he is. I think he’s the nicest guy in the world,” Skubal said.

Tigers manager A.J. Hinch echoed the sentiment, saying, “Everything that has been said about him really can only be positive… Baseball is incredible. It leads you to sometimes familiar places, and this one is leading us to a familiar face in a really big game against somebody who we all respect and admire.”

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Boyd’s Return and the Guardians’ Playoff Push

Boyd, a native of the Seattle area, signed with the Cleveland Guardians in June and made his return to the majors in mid-August. Although he hasn’t faced his former team this season, Boyd is prepared to face Detroit in this crucial postseason matchup. In his limited appearances against the Tigers, Boyd has not allowed a hit in four innings of relief work.

“I’m grateful for my time in Detroit,” Boyd said. “Detroit will always be a second home and I’ll always have just immense gratitude for the Tigers organization and a love for Michigan because of our time there.”

Game 2: Skubal vs. Boyd

In contrast, Skubal won his lone meeting against Cleveland earlier this season, allowing just one run over seven innings on July 22. He enters Game 2 with a 2-2 record and a 3.46 ERA in eight career starts against the Guardians.

Cleveland’s bats were alive in Game 1, highlighted by Lane Thomas’ three-run homer in the first inning, setting the tone for a decisive victory.

“I thought it was great for our guys to come out with a bang like that,” Guardians manager Stephen Vogt said. “For Lane to get the big hit there, that was a big moment.”