Seattle Mariners vs San Diego Padres Picks and Predictions September 10th 2024

San Diego heads into Tuesday’s interleague matchup vs. the Mariners looking to snap a two-game losing streak, and they are 81-64 overall. Seattle is 73-71 and they will have George Kirby on the mound vs. a Padres team starting Yu Darvish.

The money line odds have the Padres at -112 compared to the Mariners at -107, and the over/under line is currently at 7 runs. This one is being televised on MLBN, and first pitch from T-Mobile Park in Seattle is set for 9:40 PM ET.

San Diego vs. Seattle Key Information

• Teams: Padres at Mariners
• Where: T-Mobile Park Seattle
• Date: Tuesday, September 10th
• Betting Odds SD -112 | SEA -107 O/U 7

The Padres Can Win If…

Yu Darvish gets the start for the Padres today as he faces the Mariners on the road. He has made 12 starts this year and has a record of 4-3 with a 3.51 ERA. Darvish’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.12. In his 12 appearances, he has turned in three quality starts. Looking back at his last outing, Darvish finished with a no-decision, going just 2 2/3 innings and giving up three earned runs on four hits. Before that, he had lost two straight starts. The right-hander’s ERA at home is 4.99 compared to 1.8 on the road.

As a team, the Padres are batting a league-best .265 this season, and they are also the top home run hitting team in the league. Overall, they are averaging 4.8 runs per game, and they have been even better on the road, averaging 5.1 runs per contest. San Diego also does a great job of putting the ball in play, as they have the fewest strikeouts in the league.

Jackson Merrill has been swinging a hot bat for the Padres, going 7/28 with three homers over his last eight games. Luis Arraez has also been hot, hitting .441 over the same stretch. For the season, Arraez is batting .315, while Manny Machado leads the team with 25 homers and 90 RBIs.

• The Padres are 5-5 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Padres are 1-4 vs. the run line.
• San Diego has an over/under record of 5-4-1 in their last ten games.
• The Padres have an average of 4.6 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Padres are 5-5
• Looking back across the Padres last five games as the favorite, they are 2-3
• San Diego has gone 2-1 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Padres have averaged 5.2 runs per game on offense

The Mariners Can Win If…

Seattle is sending right-hander George Kirby to the mound today vs. the Padres. He has made 29 starts this season and has a record of 11-10. Kirby’s ERA is 3.61, along with a WHIP of 1.11. In his 29 appearances, he has turned in 17 quality starts. Kirby’s most recent outing was on September 4th, where he picked up the win, going six innings and giving up two earned runs. Before that, he had won two straight starts. So far, he has been much better on the road, with a record of 6-6 and an ERA of 4.56 compared to 5-4 with a 3.68 ERA at home.

Cal Raleigh is the Mariners’ top power threat this season, as he leads the team with 29 home runs and is 8th in the league with 90 RBIs. He has also been swinging a hot bat of late, going 7/21 in his last five games with five runs scored and six RBIs. Julio Rodriguez has been hot of late as well, going 8/25 in his last five games, and he is currently on an 11-game hitting streak.

Overall, the Mariners are 25th in the league in scoring at 4.1 runs per game. They have been a better offensive team on the road this season, averaging 4.4 runs per contest. As a team, the Mariners are batting just .219, which is the worst mark in the league.

• The Mariners are 5-5 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Mariners are 4-1 vs. the run line.
• Seattle has an over/under record of 6-3-1 in their last ten games.
• The Mariners have an average of 7.6 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Mariners are 5-5
• Looking back across the Mariners last five games as the favorite, they are 4-1
• Seattle has gone 0-3 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Mariners have averaged 5.9 runs per game on offense

Darvish’s Return: Shaking Off the Rust

Yu Darvish made his much-anticipated return to the San Diego Padres last week, but it wasn’t exactly a triumphant headline-grabber. Still, seeing the veteran right-hander back on the mound is a big positive for the Padres as they make their playoff push. Darvish, who has been a key player in the rotation, is someone the team is counting on to get back into form as the season heads into its most critical stage.

The Padres are set to start their crucial two-game series against the Seattle Mariners, and Darvish will make his second start since late May at T-Mobile Park. The question now is, how will he handle the pressure?

Getting the Kinks Out in His First Start

In his first start last Wednesday against the Detroit Tigers, Darvish had a bit of a rough time. He only lasted 2 2/3 innings, gave up three runs on four hits, and managed two walks and four strikeouts. Not ideal, right? But here’s the thing — the Padres still managed to pull out a 6-5 win after 10 innings. So while Darvish was a bit shaky, the team showed resilience.

At 38, Darvish himself admitted there were nerves. “There was a lot of adrenaline going into this game, maybe a little bit of trying to do too much, kind of getting used to the pitch clock again,” he told reporters. He’s aware that staying calm and collected will be key moving forward.

A Slow Return After a Long Layoff

It hasn’t been the easiest season for Darvish. He was sidelined with a left groin strain back in June, and then in early July, a family matter kept him on the restricted list a little longer than expected. He came back with a 4-3 record and a solid 3.51 ERA, which is not bad at all considering the hurdles.

Padres Optimistic About Darvish’s Comeback

Despite a less-than-stellar return, Padres manager Mike Shildt feels confident about Darvish’s progress. According to Shildt, Darvish was throwing 95 mph without much effort, and his secondary pitches were sharp. Sure, rust is expected after a long layoff, but the good news is that Darvish felt healthy.

That’s huge for a team like the Padres, who are in a heated race for a playoff spot. With an 81-64 record, they’re leading the National League wild-card race by two games. But they’re going to need Darvish to get back to his ace status if they want to solidify their postseason chances.

Teammates Rally Behind Darvish

Outfielder Jackson Merrill knows how important it is to have Darvish back in the rotation. “You give a guy three months off, and he’s doing everything he can to get back and healthy. It’s not easy,” Merrill said. “Having him back and strong at this point in the season is huge for us.”

This is the time of year when every game matters, and Darvish could be the key to the Padres making a deep run in October.

The Mariners Are Also in the Playoff Hunt

It’s not just the Padres fighting for a spot in the postseason. The Seattle Mariners are right in the thick of it too. With a record of 73-71, they’re 4 1/2 games behind the Houston Astros for the top spot in the AL West, and 3 1/2 games out of the final wild-card slot in the American League. They’re coming off a hot streak, winning four of their last five games, and their offense has been clicking, putting up double-digit runs in two of those wins.

George Kirby: Mariners’ Key to Victory

Seattle is sending George Kirby to the mound on Tuesday, and they’re hoping he can continue his recent success. Kirby has been on a roll, winning his last two starts. In his most recent outing against the Oakland Athletics, Kirby pitched six solid innings, giving up just two runs on six hits and striking out nine batters in a 16-3 blowout.

Kirby has been one of the Mariners’ most reliable arms this season, posting an 11-10 record with a 3.61 ERA. He’s had some trouble against the Padres in the past, though. In his only career start against San Diego, Kirby gave up five runs on 11 hits in just 3 2/3 innings. He’ll need to do better than that if Seattle wants to keep their playoff hopes alive.

Edgar Martinez’s Influence on the Mariners’ Offense

One of the biggest storylines for the Mariners this season has been the addition of Hall of Famer Edgar Martinez as their hitting coach. Since taking over the role in late August, Martinez has simplified the team’s approach at the plate, and the results have been evident.

Star outfielder Julio Rodriguez has credited Martinez for his impact. “I feel like a lot of us are young, even if our ages vary, but the experience Edgar brings is so valuable every night,” Rodriguez said.

Martinez’s old-school approach focuses on fundamentals like batting average, on-base percentage, and RBIs rather than newer stats like exit velocity. He believes that a player’s swing and overall approach are more important than how hard they hit the ball.

Darvish vs. Mariners: A Familiar Battle

Yu Darvish has faced the Mariners plenty of times in his career, and he’s had a decent amount of success. With a 7-4 record and a 3.57 ERA in 15 starts against Seattle, Darvish knows what to expect from the Mariners’ lineup.

This familiarity could give the Padres an edge in this short two-game series. Both teams are hungry for wins, and Darvish’s experience on the mound could prove to be the difference.

What’s on the Line for Both Teams?

This series is more than just two games — it could be the turning point for both teams. For the Padres, having Darvish return to form could solidify their place in the wild-card race. If he’s able to shake off the rust and get back to pitching at an elite level, San Diego could make some serious noise in the postseason.

On the other side, the Mariners are fighting for every game. They need strong outings from Kirby and continued production from their offense to stay in the race. This is a team that’s playing with confidence, but every win is crucial if they want to overtake the Astros and Twins in the standings.

The Lean

For an over/under pick, our lean is on the over, and as for who is going to take this one straight up, we have our lean on the Mariners to come out on top. Seattle’s offense is our 4th highest-rated in terms of runs scored today, and George Kirby has the 4th best chance to pick up a win among today’s starters.