Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays Picks and Predictions August 26th 2024

Mariners embracing small-ball tactics ahead of opener vs. Rays

At 4:10 PM ET, the Rays and Mariners square off in an AL matchup. This one is being played at T-Mobile Park in Seattle, and the Mariners are favored on the money line (-175). The money line odds for the Rays are sitting at +145, and the over/under line is at 7 runs.

Tampa Bay will be starting Tyler Alexander, while the Mariners are sending Luis Castillo to the mound. The Rays are 66-66 this season, while the Mariners are above .500 at 67-66 and are 2nd in the AL West. The Rays are 4th in the AL East. RSNW will be televising this game.

Tampa Bay vs. Seattle Key Information

• Teams: Rays at Mariners
• Where: T-Mobile Park Seattle
• Date: Wednesday, August 28th
• Betting Odds SEA -175 | TB +145 O/U 7

The Rays Can Win If…

Tyler Alexander is getting the start for the Rays today as he faces the Mariners on the road. So far, he has made 17 appearances and seven starts. Alexander’s record for the season is 5-3, and his ERA is 5.22. Looking at his overall numbers, he has a WHIP of 1.30 and has pitched much better on the road, coming in with a record of 3-1 and 3.57 ERA. At home, his ERA is 6.14. In his last outing, Alexander went 4 1/3 innings, giving up three earned runs, and he finished with a no-decision. He has finished with a no-decision in each of his last three outings.

Yandy Diaz has been one of the few bright spots in the Rays lineup this season, as he is batting .275 and has a team-high 57 RBIs. He is also on a three-game hitting streak and has gone 10/32 in his last nine games. Jose Siri and Christopher Morel are the Rays’ top home run hitters this season, but both have struggled in terms of batting average.

Overall, the Rays are 28th in the MLB in runs scored, averaging just 3.8 runs per game. They have been slightly better on the road, averaging 4.0 runs per contest. As a team, they are batting just .230 and have the 22nd ranked on-base percentage in the league.

• The Rays are 5-5 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Rays are 2-3 vs. the run line.
• Tampa Bay has an over/under record of 3-7 in their last ten games.
• The Rays have an average of 3.4 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Rays are 5-5
• Looking back across the Rays last five games as the favorite, they are 2-3
• Tampa Bay has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Rays have averaged 2.9 runs per game on offense

The Mariners Can Win If…

Luis Castillo gets the start for the Mariners today vs. the Rays and comes in with a record of 10-12 and an ERA of 3.66. So far this season, he has made 27 starts, and opponents are batting .233 off the right-hander. In his 27 appearances, Castillo has turned in 17 quality starts and is averaging 9.19 strikeouts per nine innings. Looking back at his last outing, Castillo finished with a no-decision vs. the Giants, giving up five earned runs in six innings of work. Before that, he had won two straight starts.

Heading into today’s game, the Mariners are averaging just 3.9 runs per game, which is 26th in the majors. They have been even worse at home, averaging only 3.7 runs per game. As a team, they are batting just .215, which is the worst mark in the league. However, they do have the 13th most home runs in the league and are 4th in walks.

Cal Raleigh has been the team’s most consistent power threat this season, as his 27 home runs are the best on the team and 9th in the league. He is also on a three-game hitting streak. Julio Rodriguez has also been a solid power threat, with 11 homers of his own and a team-leading 40 RBIs. Over his last five games, Randy Arozarena has gone 4/19 with one home run and four RBIs.

• The Mariners are 4-6 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Mariners are 2-3 vs. the run line.
• Seattle has an over/under record of 5-3-2 in their last ten games.
• The Mariners have an average of 4.0 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Mariners are 1-9
• Looking back across the Mariners last five games as the favorite, they are 4-1
• Seattle has gone 0-3 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Mariners have averaged 2.8 runs per game on offense

The Lean

Today’s Rays and Mariners matchup should feature plenty of offense, as this is projected to be the 3rd highest-scoring game of the day. For an over/under pick, our lean is on the over. As for who is going to take this one straight up, we have our lean on the Rays to pick up the win. Tampa Bay’s offense has our 2nd highest team hits projection and 3rd highest team runs projection. Looking at today’s starters, we have Luis Castillo as the 4th best strikeout option.

The Seattle Mariners are turning heads with a newfound approach under their new manager, Dan Wilson. Departing from their past reliance on the long ball, the Mariners have started to employ small-ball tactics, a strategic shift that already seems to be paying dividends.

A New Era of Small-Ball in Seattle

In their recent series victory against the San Francisco Giants, the Mariners showcased their new strategy. The 4-3 win on Sunday was a masterclass in small-ball, where the team stole five bases and even executed a sacrifice bunt—an unusual sight for a team known more for power hitting. This change comes after Wilson took over the managerial reins following the dismissal of Scott Servais last week.

The results speak for themselves. The Mariners have improved to an impressive 53-11 when scoring at least four runs, a stat that underscores the efficacy of this strategic pivot. The team’s success isn’t just about the number of runs scored—it’s about how they are being scored.

Player Support and Tactical Execution

Key players are buying into Wilson’s new approach. Cal Raleigh, the team’s leading home run hitter with 27 homers and 79 RBIs, is fully on board. “It’s little things like that that win games,” Raleigh said, acknowledging the impact of bunting, base running, and other small-ball tactics. “Creating offense isn’t always about home runs or doubles; sometimes it’s the pressure you put on the defense that makes the difference.”

Dylan Moore, thrust into the leadoff spot due to Luke Raley’s last-minute scratch from the lineup, epitomized the new Mariners style. Moore contributed one hit, one run, two walks, and a remarkable three stolen bases, setting the tone early in the game. “It sets the tone early in a game,” Wilson said. “These guys were aggressive, and I loved it.”

On the mound, right-hander Bryan Woo delivered a standout performance, allowing just two runs over seven innings. Woo, who grew up rooting for the Giants in the Bay Area, showcased his potential, improving to a 6-2 record this season. “He’s got all the talent in the world; (he’s) really, really special,” Raleigh commented on Woo’s performance.

Looking Ahead: Mariners vs. Rays

The Mariners will now test their new approach against a formidable opponent, the Tampa Bay Rays, as they open a three-game series on Monday night in Seattle. The matchup features a pair of right-handers: the Rays’ Ryan Pepiot (7-5, 3.65 ERA) and the Mariners’ Bryce Miller (9-7, 3.32 ERA).

Pepiot has been in excellent form, going 3-0 over his past four starts. He previously faced the Mariners on June 26, allowing just one run on one hit in 5 1/3 innings, though he took a no-decision. On the other side, Miller has been solid, going 3-0 over his past eight starts since his last loss on June 29. However, he has struggled against the Rays in the past, posting a 7.56 ERA in two career starts.

Momentum and Opportunity

As the Mariners prepare to face the Rays, the momentum is clearly in their favor. Sunday’s win over the Giants not only gave them a series victory but also served as a blueprint for how they can compete moving forward. By focusing on small-ball tactics—speed, base running, and timely hitting—the Mariners are becoming a more versatile and dangerous team. This approach could prove crucial as they aim to close the gap in the AL West, where they are now just 3 1/2 games behind the first-place Houston Astros.

Success in the upcoming series against the Rays could further solidify Dan Wilson’s leadership and the Mariners’ commitment to this new strategy. With players like Bryce Miller and Cal Raleigh embracing these tactics, the Mariners are positioning themselves as a team to watch in the postseason race.

Conclusion

The Seattle Mariners’ shift to small-ball under Dan Wilson is more than just a change in tactics—it’s a statement of intent. By embracing the fundamentals of baseball and focusing on creating offense in a variety of ways, the Mariners are evolving into a well-rounded team capable of competing with the best in the league. As they gear up to face the Rays, all eyes will be on how this new approach plays out on the field. If the early results are any indication, the Mariners might be on the brink of something special.

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