Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves Picks and Predictions September 20th 2024

Charlie Morton will start for the Braves on Friday, and he is facing off against Valente Bellozo for the Marlins. The game is set to start at 7:10 PM ET from loanDepot Park in Miami. The Braves are the heavy favorite on the money line, with odds of -203, while the Marlins are at +171. The over/under line is sitting at 8.5 runs.

Both teams come into the game having lost two straight, and the Braves are 3rd in the NL East, while the Marlins are 5th. Valente Bellozo will be making his MLB debut for the Marlins, and the game can be seen on BSFL.

Atlanta vs. Miami Key Information

• Teams: Braves at Marlins
• Where: loanDepot Park Miami
• Date: Friday, September 20th
• Betting Odds ATL -203 | MIA +171 O/U 8.5

The Braves Can Win If…

Charlie Morton gets the start for the Braves today as he faces the Marlins on the road. So far this season, he has made 28 starts and has a record of 8-8 to go along with a 4.01 ERA. Morton’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.30. In his 28 appearances, he has turned in 12 quality starts and is averaging 9.35 strikeouts per nine innings. Looking back at his last outing, Morton finished with a no-decision against the Dodgers, going six innings and giving up one earned run on six hits. He has given up a homer in each of his last three starts.

Marcell Ozuna has been a big part of the Braves’ offense this season, as his 101 RBIs are 10th in the league and lead the team. He is also 5th in the league with 38 homers. Ozuna comes into the game on a three-game hitting streak. Over his last eight games, Michael Harris II has gone 11/35 with four homers and eight RBIs.

Overall, the Braves are 4th in home runs this season and are averaging 4.4 runs per contest. This is a big improvement from their home games, where they have averaged just 3.9 runs per game. As a team, they are batting .242, which is 13th in the league.

• The Braves are 5-5 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Braves are 2-3 vs. the run line.
• Atlanta has an over/under record of 6-4 in their last ten games.
• The Braves have an average of 5.8 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Braves are 5-5
• Looking back across the Braves last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• Atlanta has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Braves have averaged 5.8 runs per game on offense

The Marlins Can Win If…

Right-hander Valente Bellozo gets the start for the Marlins today as he faces the Braves at home. Bellozo has made 11 starts this season and has a record of 2-4 with a 3.70 ERA. In his 11 appearances, he has turned in two quality starts and is averaging 6.02 strikeouts per nine innings. Bellozo’s most recent outing came on September 14th, where he took the loss, giving up three earned runs in 5 1/3 innings of work. Before that, he had given up at least two homers in three straight outings.

Heading into today’s game, the Marlins are 28th in the league in scoring at 3.8 runs per game. They have been a little better at home, averaging 4.3 runs per game, but that still is only 17th in the league. As a team, they are batting .242, which is 13th in the league, but their on-base percentage of .297 is 20th in the MLB.

Jake Burger has been the Marlins top power threat this season, as his 27 home runs are 14th in the league. He is also 1st on the team with 67 RBIs. Over his last seven games, he has gone 7/26 with two homers and six RBIs. Otto Lopez has also been swinging a hot bat for the Marlins, going 9/26 with two homers and six RBIs in his last seven games. Lopez is also on a six-game hitting streak.

• The Marlins are 2-8 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Marlins are 2-3 vs. the run line.
• Miami has an over/under record of 4-5-1 in their last ten games.
• The Marlins have an average of 4.6 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Marlins are 3-7
• Looking back across the Marlins last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• Miami has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Marlins have averaged 3.0 runs per game on offense

Braves Face NL-Worst Marlins with Wild Card in Reach

The Atlanta Braves are in the thick of the National League wild-card race, and they’re set to take advantage of a favorable matchup as they visit the Miami Marlins this weekend. With a strong 7-3 record against the Marlins this season, the Braves (83-70) hope to sweep the team with the worst record in the National League (56-97) to solidify their playoff chances.

Starting Pitchers: Experience vs. Youth

In Friday’s series opener, Atlanta will lean on veteran right-hander Charlie Morton (8-8, 4.01 ERA). The 17-year MLB veteran has been a steady presence on the mound this year, and his September performance has been outstanding, with a 2.04 ERA in his three starts this month. Morton, who turns 41 in November, is approaching the postseason in solid form.

The Marlins will counter with rookie Valente Bellozo (2-4, 3.70 ERA), who has quickly risen from the minor leagues to Miami’s starting rotation. Though still developing, the 24-year-old has shown flashes of promise, even limiting the Braves to two runs over five innings in an August 2 start. While the Marlins are 5-6 in his starts, Bellozo has proven he can compete with high-powered offenses like Atlanta’s.

Morton’s History vs. Marlins

Morton has had a long history against Miami, going 14-6 with a 3.98 ERA in 26 starts. However, this season has produced mixed results. He struggled in an April start, allowing six runs in 5 2/3 innings, but rebounded on August 1, throwing six innings of one-run (unearned) ball in a Braves win.

Braves’ Offense Hitting Stride

The Braves enter the weekend on a two-game winning streak, having outscored the Cincinnati Reds 22-4 in their last two games. A key factor in their success has been the resurgence of designated hitter Marcell Ozuna. After two challenging seasons, Ozuna has bounced back, hitting 38 home runs with 101 RBIs and posting a .940 OPS.

Despite his overall success this season, Ozuna has cooled off in September, with just one home run and two RBIs so far. As Atlanta eyes the postseason, Ozuna will look to regain his power stroke against a Marlins team struggling for consistency.

Albies’ Potential Return

Another boost for the Braves could come from the return of second baseman Ozzie Albies, who is recovering from a broken wrist. Albies made a rehab appearance earlier this week and could rejoin the lineup soon, strengthening the Braves’ potent offense as they push for the playoffs.

Marlins’ Youth Movement

While Miami is out of playoff contention, they are using this stretch of the season to evaluate young players. First baseman/designated hitter Jonah Bride has been a standout, posting a .749 OPS and drawing praise from manager Skip Schumaker for his disciplined approach at the plate. With the Marlins focusing on development, the series presents an opportunity for their young roster to gain valuable experience against a playoff-contending team.

Series Outlook

The Braves are in a prime position to sweep the Marlins and gain momentum as they close in on a wild-card spot. With Charlie Morton’s experience going up against Valente Bellozo’s youthful potential, the Braves have the upper hand.

The Marlins, however, will look to play spoiler and continue building for the future with performances from players like Jonah Bride. As Atlanta’s postseason dreams hang in the balance, Miami will aim to challenge them in this key series.

Key Matchup: Morton vs. Bellozo

Look for Morton’s veteran savvy to clash with Bellozo’s developing skills. The Braves’ offense, led by Marcell Ozuna, could exploit the rookie’s inexperience, while Miami’s scrappy lineup, featuring Jonah Bride, will try to spoil Atlanta’s postseason push.

The Lean

For an over/under pick, our lean is on the over, as this is projected to be the 10th highest-scoring game of today’s league slate. As for who is going to take this one straight up, we have our lean on the Marlins to pick up the win. Atlanta starter Charlie Morton comes in with the 3rd best strikeout projection among today’s starters, but we still have the Marlins putting up good numbers offensively. For an over/under pick, our lean is on the over, as this is projected to be the 10th highest-scoring game of today’s league slate. As for who is going to take this one straight up, we have our lean on the Marlins to pick up the win. Atlanta starter Charlie Morton comes in with the 3rd best strikeout projection among today’s starters, but we still have the Marlins putting up good numbers offensively.