Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves Picks and Predictions September 22nd 2024

At 1:40 PM ET, the Braves and Marlins face off in an NL East matchup. This one is being played at loanDepot Park in Miami, and the Braves are the heavy favorite on the money line, with their odds sitting at -196 compared to the Marlins at +164. The over/under line is currently 8.5 runs.

Grant Holmes is starting for the Braves, and he is facing off against Darren McCaughan. The Braves are currently 3rd in the NL East, while the Marlins are 5th, with an overall record of 57-98.

Atlanta vs. Miami Key Information

• Teams: Braves at Marlins
• Where: loanDepot Park Miami
• Date: Sunday, September 22nd
• Betting Odds ATL -196 | MIA +164 O/U 8.5

The Braves Can Win If…

Right-hander Grant Holmes gets the start for the Braves today as he faces the Marlins on the road. He has made 23 appearances this season to go along with five starts. Holmes’ record for the season is 2-1, and he has an ERA of 3.83. Opponents have put together a batting average of .264 vs. Holmes this season. Looking back at his last outing, he finished with a no-decision vs. the Reds, going four innings and giving up two earned runs. He has finished with a no-decision in each of his last three outings.

Marcell Ozuna and Matt Olson have been a great 1-2 punch in the Braves lineup this season, as Ozuna is batting .310 with a team-high 38 home runs, and Olson is batting .243 with 29 homers. Olson has been hot of late, going 7/19 in his last six games with four homers and 10 RBIs. Michael Harris II has also been on a tear, going 13/28 in his last six games, also with four homers.

Overall, the Braves are 4th in home runs and are averaging 4.4 runs per game (16th). They have been a better offensive team on the road this season, averaging 4.8 runs per game. As a team, they are batting .243, which is 11th in the league.

• The Braves are 5-5 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Braves are 3-2 vs. the run line.
• Atlanta has an over/under record of 5-5 in their last ten games.
• The Braves have an average of 7.2 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Braves are 5-5
• Looking back across the Braves last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• Atlanta has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Braves have averaged 5.8 runs per game on offense

The Marlins Can Win If…

Miami is sending right-hander Darren McCaughan to the mound today vs. the Braves. He has made four starts and nine appearances this year and has a record of 0-0 with a 7.64 ERA. Opposing batters are hitting .322 off McCaughan this year. In his last outing, he finished with a no-decision, giving up five earned runs in 3 2/3 innings of work. Looking back over his last four outings, McCaughan has finished with a no-decision in each one. His ERA for the season is 5.48 at home and 9.14 on the road.

For the season, the Marlins are averaging just 3.8 runs per game, which is the worst mark in the league. They have been even worse on the road, averaging only 3.4 runs per contest. Miami is also last in the league in walks and near the bottom of the league in terms of on-base percentage and OPS. As a team, they are batting .241, which is 13th in the league.

Jake Burger and Jesus Sanchez have been the Marlins’ top power threats this season, with 27 and 17 homers, respectively. Burger has been swinging the bat well of late, going 10/33 in his last nine games with two homers and seven RBIs. Josh Bell leads the team with a seven-game hitting streak, while Jake Burger and Bryan De La Cruz are also on notable streaks.

• The Marlins are 3-7 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Marlins are 2-3 vs. the run line.
• Miami has an over/under record of 3-6-1 in their last ten games.
• The Marlins have an average of 5.0 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Marlins are 3-7
• Looking back across the Marlins last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• Miami has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Marlins have averaged 3.0 runs per game on offense

Grant Holmes will make the most significant start of his career on Sunday when the Atlanta Braves face the Miami Marlins in the series finale. The stakes are high for the Braves (84-71), who are two games behind the New York Mets for the final National League wild-card spot. Facing the struggling Miami Marlins (57-98), Atlanta needs a win to stay in the playoff hunt.

Holmes’ Moment to Shine

Holmes, a right-hander who has worked his way through the minor leagues for nearly a decade, finally has his chance to make a lasting impact. Drafted 22nd overall by the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2014, Holmes made his major league debut this season at 28 years old after stops with the Oakland Athletics and Atlanta. Despite a rocky journey, he’s posted a 2-1 record with a 3.84 ERA this year, showing promise in key situations.

However, his performance as a starter (4.56 ERA) has been less effective than as a reliever (3.27 ERA). Holmes has faced challenges in September, recording a 6.43 ERA over his last five appearances. Atlanta has gone just 8-15 in games he’s pitched, but Sunday offers him the chance to shift the narrative and help the Braves continue their playoff push.

In his only previous outing against the Marlins on Aug. 3, Holmes allowed seven hits and three runs over 4 2/3 innings, escaping with a no-decision as Miami won 4-3. He will aim to build on that experience and deliver a stronger performance in this critical matchup.

Braves’ Offensive Power

Despite recent struggles and key injuries to stars Ronald Acuña Jr. and Austin Riley, Atlanta’s offense still has firepower. Marcell Ozuna (38 home runs, 101 RBIs) and Matt Olson (29 homers, 97 RBIs) lead the Braves’ attack. Manager Brian Snitker acknowledged the team’s offensive dip, saying, “The reality is that we haven’t been the same offensive team that we’ve been, and we weren’t before the injuries, to be honest.”

Nevertheless, Snitker remains confident in the team’s ability to grind through and come up with key wins in tight situations, especially with playoff hopes on the line.

Marlins’ Counter with Darren McCaughan

Miami will send right-hander Darren McCaughan (0-0, 7.64 ERA) to the mound in the finale. McCaughan has struggled in his four September starts, posting a 6.75 ERA, and has yet to pitch longer than five innings in any major league game. Although he has limited major league experience, McCaughan aims to provide the Marlins with five strong innings against an Atlanta team eager to exploit his inexperience.

The Marlins have embraced their role as spoilers, with manager Skip Schumaker motivating his team by reminding them of their impact on playoff-bound clubs. “The teams we’re playing lately are trying to get into the tournament,” Schumaker said. “I don’t need to motivate our guys.”

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Key Players to Watch

• Grant Holmes: Can Holmes rise to the occasion and keep Atlanta’s playoff hopes alive?
• Marcell Ozuna: With 38 home runs and 101 RBIs, Ozuna remains the Braves’ key offensive force.
• Darren McCaughan: Miami’s young right-hander will aim for a solid outing against Atlanta’s potent lineup.
• Jake Burger: Leading the Marlins with 27 home runs, Burger will look to play spoiler in the series finale.

With playoff hopes at stake, this game will be a pivotal moment for the Braves as they aim to make a final push in the National League wild-card race.

Probable Starters:

• Braves: Grant Holmes (2-1, 3.84 ERA)
• Marlins: Darren McCaughan (0-0, 7.64 ERA)

As Atlanta seeks to clinch a crucial win in the wild-card race, all eyes will be on Holmes in what could be a defining moment for his career and the Braves’ postseason aspirations.

The Lean

As the Braves head to Miami to take on the Marlins, we are leaning towards the Braves picking up a win on the road. We also like the over in this one, as this is projected to be the 7th highest-scoring game of the day, and this one has the 6th highest total hits projection. For a home run over/under pick, we would be leaning towards the over, as this game has the 8th highest projection.