Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals Picks and Predictions September 3rd 2024

From loanDepot Park in Miami, we have the Nationals and Marlins facing off in an NL East matchup. The Nationals are 61-76 overall, and they are starting Patrick Corbin. The Marlins are 51-86 and they have Max Meyer on the mound. Washington is 4th in the NL East, while the Marlins are 5th.

The money line odds have the Nationals at -105, while the Marlins are the slight favorite at -113. Tuesday’s over/under line is sitting at 8.5 runs, and the game will be televised on BSFL.

Washington starter Patrick Corbin has struggled this season, coming into the game with a record of 4-12 and an ERA of 5.50. However, he has pitched well in his last two outings, picking up the win in both. In his most recent start, Corbin went 6 innings and didn’t give up a run. Looking back further, he has made eight quality starts this year. Per nine innings, Corbin is averaging 6.9 strikeouts and 2.93 walks. Overall, he has allowed 20 homers. At home, his ERA is 4.73 compared to 7.42 on the road.

Washington’s offense comes into today’s game averaging 4.2 runs per game, which is 21st in the league. This is also the 25th ranked home run hitting team in the league. However, they do have a good team batting average of .245 and have done a good job of putting the ball in play, as they have the 5th fewest strikeouts in the league.

Luis Garcia Jr. comes into the game with a team-high 63 RBIs and is 2nd on the team with 15 homers. He is also batting .290 for the season. CJ Abrams has gone deep 18 times this season, but is batting just .244. Jacob Young has been hot of late for the Nationals, going 8/22 in his last seven games.

Max Meyer will be looking to bounce back from a rough outing vs. the Rockies, as he gave up four earned runs in five innings of work. In that outing, he gave up one homer. Looking back over his last three starts, Meyer has given up a homer in each outing. Meyer’s record for the season is 3-4, and his ERA is 5.43 to go along with a WHIP of 1.38. Opposing batters are hitting .259 this season vs. Meyer. The right-hander has made 10 starts, and his ERA at home is 5.46 compared to 6.33 on the road.

Over the past five games, Derek Hill has hit three home runs, and is 5/18 overall (.278). Kyle Stowers has also been swinging a hot bat of late, going 8/21 in his last six games, with two homers and eight RBIs. Stowers has scored four runs in those six games. Josh Bell is currently on a seven-game hitting streak for the Marlins.

Jake Burger has been the Marlins’ top power threat this season, as his 25 homers are 12th in the league. He also leads the team with 59 RBIs and is batting .247. Jesus Sanchez is right behind him in the home run department, with 17 homers, and he is batting .241 for the season.

Underwhelming Pitchers Take the Spotlight as Nationals and Marlins Face Off

The National League East usually offers some fierce competition with teams like the Phillies, Braves, and Mets fighting for postseason glory. But not every team in this division is in the hunt. The Washington Nationals and Miami Marlins, almost completely out of the playoff picture, are simply playing out the final stretch of the season. On Tuesday, these two teams kick off a two-game series in Florida, and honestly, it’s a bit of a showdown between two struggling squads.

Struggling Pitchers Set to Start

Let’s talk pitching—though maybe not the kind of pitching that wins awards. The last-place Marlins (51-86) are sending Max Meyer (3-4, 5.44 ERA) to the mound. Meyer, who was once a top prospect, hasn’t exactly lived up to the hype since being picked third overall in the 2020 MLB Draft. After undergoing Tommy John surgery last year, his comeback has been less than stellar. Consistency has been elusive for Meyer in his second season.

Meyer’s biggest issue? The long ball. He’s given up 12 home runs in just 10 starts this season, including a whopping five in his last three outings—all losses for the Marlins. The team’s record in games he starts is a shaky 4-6, leading to whispers that Meyer might be better suited as a reliever next season. With star pitchers like Sandy Alcantara, Eury Perez, and Jesus Luzardo expected to return from injury, Meyer’s role as a starter is far from guaranteed.

Despite his rough patch, Meyer did show some promise earlier this season, going 2-0 with a solid 2.12 ERA in April. But then came August, where things took a nosedive—he posted a 1-4 record with an alarming 7.12 ERA.

On the flip side, the fourth-place Nationals (61-76) will counter with Patrick Corbin (4-12, 5.50 ERA), a veteran lefty whose six-year, $140 million contract is finally coming to an end. Corbin, a two-time All-Star, has had a tough run, tying for the most losses in the National League. His recent seasons have been a struggle, with a 29-62 record since the start of 2021.

Corbin’s track record against the Marlins is a mixed bag. He’s 5-7 with a 4.22 ERA in 19 starts against Miami, but when pitching in Florida, his performance dips, showing a 2-4 record and a 6.86 ERA in eight starts. The Nationals have won just 9 of Corbin’s 27 starts this season, but he’s been showing signs of life recently, allowing just one run and striking out 14 over his last 12 innings.

Defensive and Offensive Struggles

Don’t expect stellar defense from either team in this series. Both the Nationals and Marlins entered Monday tied for 27th out of 30 MLB teams with a .981 fielding percentage. Nationals manager Dave Martinez didn’t hold back after his team’s defensive disaster—a 14-1 loss to the Chicago Cubs on Sunday where they committed three errors. “We’ve got to catch the baseball,” Martinez said bluntly. “It was awful today.”

Offensively, things don’t look much better. The Nationals are 22nd in the majors with an average of 4.20 runs per game, while the Marlins are even worse, managing just 3.80 runs per game, making them the second-worst offense in baseball. These numbers suggest that the upcoming series might be a low-scoring affair, even though the Marlins have a slight edge with some recent positive momentum.

The Marlins are coming off two straight wins, including a 7-5 victory over the San Francisco Giants on Sunday. Taking two out of three from a team fighting for a playoff spot was no small feat.

Conclusion: A Battle of the Bottom

As the Nationals and Marlins head into their final stretch of games, they’ll both be looking to find some positives to build on. This series might not capture much attention, but it’s an important opportunity for Max Meyer and Patrick Corbin to show that they’ve still got something left in the tank. While the stakes might be low, the chance to end the season on a high note is still on the table for these struggling pitchers.

Our lean for an over/under pick would be to take the over, as we have this as the 7th highest-scoring game of the day. For a straight-up pick, we are leaning toward the Marlins to come out on top. Miami starter Max Meyer has the 6th best strikeout projection among today’s starters, and he also has the 6th best odds to pick up a win.