Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals Picks and Predictions September 3rd 2024

From loanDepot Park in Miami, we have the Nationals and Marlins facing off in an NL East matchup. The Nationals are 61-76 overall, and they are starting Patrick Corbin. The Marlins are 51-86 and they have Max Meyer on the mound. Washington is 4th in the NL East, while the Marlins are 5th.

The money line odds have the Nationals at -105, while the Marlins are the slight favorite at -113. Tuesday’s over/under line is sitting at 8.5 runs, and the game will be televised on BSFL.

Washington vs. Miami Key Information

Washington starter Patrick Corbin has struggled this season, coming into the game with a record of 4-12 and an ERA of 5.50. However, he has pitched well in his last two outings, picking up the win in both. In his most recent start, Corbin went 6 innings and didn’t give up a run. Looking back further, he has made eight quality starts this year. Per nine innings, Corbin is averaging 6.9 strikeouts and 2.93 walks. Overall, he has allowed 20 homers. At home, his ERA is 4.73 compared to 7.42 on the road.

Washington’s offense comes into today’s game averaging 4.2 runs per game, which is 21st in the league. This is also the 25th ranked home run hitting team in the league. However, they do have a good team batting average of .245 and have done a good job of putting the ball in play, as they have the 5th fewest strikeouts in the league.

Maximize Your Betting Success! View expert MLB Betting Tips today.

Luis Garcia Jr. comes into the game with a team-high 63 RBIs and is 2nd on the team with 15 homers. He is also batting .290 for the season. CJ Abrams has gone deep 18 times this season, but is batting just .244. Jacob Young has been hot of late for the Nationals, going 8/22 in his last seven games.

Max Meyer will be looking to bounce back from a rough outing vs. the Rockies, as he gave up four earned runs in five innings of work. In that outing, he gave up one homer. Looking back over his last three starts, Meyer has given up a homer in each outing. Meyer’s record for the season is 3-4, and his ERA is 5.43 to go along with a WHIP of 1.38. Opposing batters are hitting .259 this season vs. Meyer. The right-hander has made 10 starts, and his ERA at home is 5.46 compared to 6.33 on the road.

Over the past five games, Derek Hill has hit three home runs, and is 5/18 overall (.278). Kyle Stowers has also been swinging a hot bat of late, going 8/21 in his last six games, with two homers and eight RBIs. Stowers has scored four runs in those six games. Josh Bell is currently on a seven-game hitting streak for the Marlins.

Jake Burger has been the Marlins’ top power threat this season, as his 25 homers are 12th in the league. He also leads the team with 59 RBIs and is batting .247. Jesus Sanchez is right behind him in the home run department, with 17 homers, and he is batting .241 for the season.

Our lean for an over/under pick would be to take the over, as we have this as the 7th highest-scoring game of the day. For a straight-up pick, we are leaning toward the Marlins to come out on top. Miami starter Max Meyer has the 6th best strikeout projection among today’s starters, and he also has the 6th best odds to pick up a win.

Underwhelming Pitchers in Focus as Nats, Marlins Begin Series

As the postseason race intensifies for teams like the Philadelphia Phillies, Atlanta Braves, and New York Mets, the Washington Nationals and Miami Marlins are left to navigate the final month of the season with little more than pride on the line. The two National League East bottom-dwellers will kick off a two-game series on Tuesday in Florida, with both teams turning to pitchers who have underperformed this season.

The Marlins (51-86), sitting in last place, will hand the ball to 25-year-old right-hander Max Meyer (3-4, 5.44 ERA). A former top draft pick, Meyer has struggled to live up to his potential since being selected third overall in the 2020 MLB Draft. Tommy John surgery last year slowed his development, and this season, the young pitcher has been plagued by home run troubles, surrendering 12 homers across 10 starts. In his last three outings, all losses for Miami, Meyer has given up five home runs, raising concerns about his long-term role in the rotation.

Despite showing flashes of promise early in the season, Meyer has faltered as the year has progressed. He went 2-0 with a 2.12 ERA in April but struggled mightily in August, posting a 1-4 record with a 7.12 ERA. As the Marlins look ahead to next season, Meyer’s role could shift, especially with the expected return of star pitchers like Sandy Alcantara, Eury Perez, and Jesus Luzardo.

Corbin Hopes to Build on Recent Success

On the other side, the Nationals (61-76) will counter with left-hander Patrick Corbin (4-12, 5.50 ERA). Corbin, who is in the final month of a six-year, $140 million contract, has struggled mightily over the past few seasons. He currently shares the lead for the most losses in the National League, a dubious distinction he has held or shared in each of the last three seasons. Since the start of 2021, Corbin has a 29-62 record, a far cry from his All-Star form.

However, Corbin has shown signs of life recently. In his last two starts, he has allowed just one run on six hits over 12 innings while striking out 14 batters. The Nationals have won both games, a rare bright spot in an otherwise disappointing season for the veteran pitcher. Corbin’s career numbers against the Marlins include a 5-7 record with a 4.22 ERA in 19 starts, though he has struggled in Miami, going 2-4 with a 6.86 ERA in eight outings.

Defensive Woes and Offensive Struggles

Meyer and Corbin will both need to be sharp, as neither can expect much help from their defenses. Both the Nationals and Marlins entered Monday tied for 27th in the league with a .981 fielding percentage. Nationals manager Dave Martinez didn’t mince words after his team committed three errors in a 14-1 drubbing at the hands of the Chicago Cubs on Sunday.

“We’ve got to catch the baseball,” Martinez said. “It was awful today.”

Get Instant MLB Betting Updates! See Live MLB Lines now.

Offensively, both teams have struggled as well. The Nationals rank 22nd in the majors with 4.20 runs per game, while the Marlins have managed just 3.80 runs per game, the second-lowest mark in baseball.

Evenly Matched Teams Face Off

Given the season-long struggles of both teams, this two-game set appears to be evenly matched. The Marlins enter the series on a positive note, having taken two out of three games against the San Francisco Giants, a team fighting for a wild-card spot.

“Everything had to go right, honestly, to beat a team like that in that environment,” Marlins manager Skip Schumaker said after Sunday’s 7-5 win. “I’m really happy with what our group did.”

As these two underperforming pitchers take the mound, both the Nationals and Marlins will be looking for some late-season momentum to carry them into the offseason. With little more than pride at stake, the series offers a chance for Meyer and Corbin to turn things around and finish the season on a high note.