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At 1:40 PM ET, the Padres and Marlins square off in an NL matchup. This one is being played at loanDepot Park in Miami, and the Padres are the heavy favorite on the money line, with their odds sitting at -210 compared to the Marlins at +176. The over/under line is currently 7.5 runs.
San Diego is 66-52 and they have won seven straight, while the Marlins are 43-75 and they have lost three in a row. Dylan Cease will start for the Padres, and he is facing off against Max Meyer for the Marlins, who are 5th in the NL East. The Padres are 2nd in the NL West.
San Diego vs. Miami Key Information
- Teams: Padres at Marlins
- Where: loanDepot Park Miami
- Date: Sunday, August 11th
- Betting Odds SD -210 | MIA +176 O/U 7.5
The Padres Can Win If…
Dylan Cease will be looking to keep his strong season going as he faces the Marlins on the road for the Padres. So far, Cease has made 24 starts and has a record of 11-8 with a 3.40 ERA. Cease most recently faced the Pirates, where he finished with a no-decision after going just one inning and giving up two hits. Before that outing, Cease had picked up the win in three straight starts. One of those wins was a complete-game shutout. Cease has 13 quality starts this season and is averaging 11.51 strikeouts per nine innings. His 176 strikeouts this season rank first in the league.
San Diego comes into the game as the league’s top hitting team, averaging 4.8 runs per game and batting a collective .265. They have also been tough to strike out this season, as their 6 strikeouts per game is the best mark in the league. The Padres have also been one of the league’s best home run hitting teams, as their 135 homers is 9th in the league.
Jurickson Profar has been a key power source for the Padres this season, as his 19 homers is the best mark on the team and 15th in the league. He is also batting .300. Over his last 10 games, Manny Machado has gone 15/43 with four homers and 12 RBIs. During this stretch, he has scored eight runs. Jackson Merrill has also been hot of late, going 14/36 with five homers in his last 10 games.
- The Padres are 9-1 in their last ten games.
- Over their last five games, the Padres are 2-3 vs. the run line.
- San Diego has an over/under record of 6-4 in their last ten games.
- The Padres have an average of 7.4 runs per game over their last five games.
- Across their last ten road games, the Padres are 9-1
- Looking back across the Padres last five games as the favorite, they are 5-0
- San Diego has gone 2-1 in their last three games as the underdog
- In their ten most recent road games, the Padres have averaged 7.3 runs per game on offense
The Marlins Can Win If…
Right-hander Max Meyer is starting for the Marlins today as he faces the Padres at home. He has made six starts this season and has a record of 2-2 with a 5.10 ERA. Looking at his overall numbers, Meyer has a WHIP of 1.30 and has allowed a total of seven home runs. Meyer’s most recent outing was a rough one, as he took the loss after giving up six earned runs in four innings of work. Before that, he had given up three earned runs in three straight outings. Meyer’s ERA at home is 6.2 compared to 5.15 on the road.
Heading into today’s game, the Marlins are averaging just 3.7 runs per game, which is 29th in the league. They are also near the bottom of the league in home runs and have the worst team on-base percentage in the MLB. Miami’s batting average of .237 is just 16th in the league, and their slugging percentage of .364 is also near the bottom of the league.
Jake Burger has been a bright spot in the Marlins lineup, as he is batting .245 for the season and has gone 13/40 with six homers over his last 10 games. This has helped him move into the top spot in the Marlins lineup for RBIs. Burger’s 21 homers are 13th in the league. Jesus Sanchez is also near the top of the Marlins’ home run list, with 13 homers this season.
- The Marlins are 3-7 in their last ten games.
- Over their last five games, the Marlins are 2-3 vs. the run line.
- Miami has an over/under record of 5-5 in their last ten games.
- The Marlins have an average of 4.4 runs per game over their last five games.
- Across their last ten home games, the Marlins are 6-4
- Looking back across the Marlins last five games as the favorite, they are 4-1
- Miami has gone 0-3 in their last three games as the underdog
- In their ten most recent road games, the Marlins have averaged 4.3 runs per game on offense
Padres Eye Series Sweep Against Marlins, Aiming for 8th Straight Win
The San Diego Padres are on fire, riding the longest active winning streak in Major League Baseball. They’re looking to make it eight straight wins as they face off against the Miami Marlins in the series finale this Sunday afternoon. With 16 wins in their last 18 games, the Padres are in top form, and manager Mike Shildt believes his team can keep the momentum going.
Padres Riding the Wave of Success
The Padres have been unstoppable lately, with a seven-game winning streak that showcases just how well they’ve been playing since late July. Their winning formula? Solid pitching, clutch hitting, and meticulous preparation.
“Our guys are doing the little things well,” Shildt said. “Everyone’s competing at every turn, and the preparation has been spot-on.”
Offensively, the Padres are clicking on all cylinders, putting up 15 runs in the first two games of this series alone. Rookie center fielder Jackson Merrill has been particularly impressive, delivering game-tying home runs on both Friday and Saturday. At just 21 years old, Merrill is quickly becoming a key player for the Padres, even earning praise from Marlins manager Skip Schumaker.
“That kid is tearing it up,” Schumaker said. “He’s been especially tough on us late in games.”
Marlins Struggling in Extra Innings
On the flip side, the Marlins have hit a rough patch, dropping three games in a row—all in the 10th inning. Their struggles in extra innings have highlighted their recent inability to close out tight games. Still, there have been some bright spots for Miami, particularly with Jake Burger, who’s been on a power surge, smashing nine homers in his last 15 games.
Schumaker has been strategic about keeping Burger fresh, sometimes using him as a DH or at first base to give his legs a break.
“My OPS after a DH day is through the roof,” Burger said. “Skip’s been clear about wanting me to crush it these next two months, and if resting my legs helps, he’s all for it.”
That approach is paying off, with Burger already racking up six home runs in August.
Pitching Matchup: Dylan Cease vs. Max Meyer
The Padres will have right-hander Dylan Cease on the mound for the series finale. Cease, who was picked up from the White Sox back in March, has been on a tear lately, posting a 3-0 record with an incredible 0.40 ERA over his last four starts. His most memorable performance came on July 25, when he threw a no-hitter against the Washington Nationals, marking only the second no-hitter in Padres history. Cease has been nearly unhittable, striking out 27 batters and allowing just five hits over his last 22 2/3 innings.
The Marlins will counter with Max Meyer. The former first-round pick has had a rocky start to his MLB career, with a 5.50 ERA in eight starts. Injuries have slowed his development, and Sunday’s game will be a big test for the 25-year-old as he faces a red-hot Padres lineup for the first time.
Players to Keep an Eye On
Jackson Merrill: The Padres’ rookie center fielder has been clutch in this series, hitting game-tying homers in both games. His knack for delivering in high-pressure moments makes him a player to watch in the finale.
Jake Burger: The Marlins’ slugger has been on fire, with nine homers in his last 15 games. If the Marlins hope to avoid a sweep, Burger’s power will be key.
Strategy and Managerial Moves
Padres manager Mike Shildt has stressed the importance of preparation and doing the “little things” right—an approach that’s clearly paying off. On the other hand, Marlins manager Skip Schumaker has the tough task of rallying his team after three straight extra-inning losses. Schumaker will need to find a way to jumpstart his lineup and get more out of his bullpen to halt the Padres’ momentum.
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Wrapping It Up
As the Padres aim for a sweep and their eighth straight win, all eyes will be on Dylan Cease and whether he can continue his dominant run on the mound. The Marlins, led by the red-hot Jake Burger, will be desperate to avoid a sweep and turn things around. With both teams having plenty at stake, Sunday’s game is set to be an exciting conclusion to the series.
The Lean
As the Padres travel to Miami to take on the Marlins, we are leaning towards the Padres picking up a win on the road. We also have this as the 2nd lowest-scoring game of the day, but with the line sitting at 7.5 runs, we are still leaning towards taking the over. Comparing the two starters for this matchup, we like Dylan Cease’s strikeout potential over Max Meyer for the Marlins.
